Miami vs Ole Miss Prediction — Clash of Styles for a CFP Title Shot

The Fiesta Bowl brings us a College Football Playoff semifinal between 2 programs that really weren’t supposed to be here. #10 Miami, who ended the season 12-2, and #6 Ole Miss at 13-1 have both bulldozed their way past bigger names and higher seeds to reach the final four. It’s quite a story as one team wins ugly and the other thrives in chaos. However, what really matters is that only one will leave Glendale with a shot at the national title.

Kickoff is set for tomorrow night at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN so you’ve plenty of time to get your bets in.

Game Info and What’s at Stake

This is the first CFP appearance for both programs. Miami didn’t win the ACC outright but snuck into the playoff thanks to its tough schedule and late-season surge to grab a slot as an at-large team. The Hurricanes knocked off Texas A&M 10-3 and then stunned defending champion Ohio State 24-14, allowing just 17 points combined in those 2 games. Nobody expected them to knock off TAMU and definitely no OSU, but this has been all about physicality and defense.

Ole Miss had its own drama to get to this point in the season. Lane Kiffin left for LSU right after they clinched a spot in the CFP. Interim-turned-head coach Pete Golding took over, and all the Rebels did was beat Tulane 41-10, then outlast Georgia 39-34 in a thriller. Senior QB Trinidad Chambliss has come out of all of this as a legit star, and Ole Miss continues to put up points no matter who they’re playing.

The winner of this showdown earns an all-expense-paid trip to the national title game in Miami Gardens, where either Indiana or Oregon will be waiting.

No Room for Error — Breaking Down the Matchup

The difference in playing styles couldn’t be more obvious. Miami is a team that simply grinds you down, controls the line of scrimmage, and makes you play its tempo. It’s gritty and sometimes ugly, but it works out well for them (obviously). Ole Miss wants to turn games into track meets, feeding off tempo, capitalizing on mistakes, and playmaking ability from their quarterback.

Miami’s strength is undoubtedly defense. In their last 2 playoff games, they’ve recorded 12 sacks and forced 5 turnovers. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are two of the most disruptive DLs in college football. Bain has 13 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks on the season while Mesidor added 10.5 sacks of his own. These 2 live in the backfield, and their pressure without blitzing allows the secondary to stay disciplined and prevent big plays. It’s calculated and keeps offenses guessing.

Against Ohio State, Miami didn’t just survive. They dominated the trenches as they picked off Heisman finalist Julian Sayin twice and held the Buckeyes to just 14 points. That type of defensive performance travels. It was a terrible way for Ohio to go out considering the talk about them being the team to beat.

Offensively, Miami is led by Carson Beck, the former Georgia quarterback. He’s not as flashy this year, but he’s efficient and gets the job done. He’s racked up 3,313 yards, 27 TDs, and 10 picks on this season and he completes 74% of his throws and rarely puts the ball in harm’s way. Beck has also only been sacked just 9 times all season, a testament to the Hurricanes’ elite offensive line.

Fortunately for him, he has the tools to get it done. Junior RB Mark Fletcher Jr. brings balance with 947 rushing yards and 10 TDs and freshman wideout Malachi Toney, who led all FBS freshmen in catches and yards, is Beck’s go-to weapon as underscored by his 1,000+ receiving yards. Toney already made one of the biggest plays of the postseason — the game-winning touchdown against Texas A&M.

Ole Miss will test this defense in a way few others can. Chambliss is dangerous on and off-script. He’s thrown for 3,660 yards and 21 TDs, and he’s added nearly 600 more yards with his legs. He’s played his best football in the postseason, with 644 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and no turnovers in 2 games — against the best teams in the nation.

He was lethal against Georgia, tossing for 362 yards and leading the game-winning drive in the final minute. He has chemistry with a deep receiver group, including senior WR Harrison Wallace III, who had a career game against Georgia with 156 yards and a score.

But Chambliss isn’t doing this alone either. Kewan Lacy, one of the most underrated RBs in the country, leads the Rebels with 1,464 rushing yards and 23 TDs. That combination presents multiple dilemmas for defenses as they can’t just key in on Chambliss, or Lacy will punish them between the tackles.

Still, for all their firepower, Ole Miss has a few cracks in their armor. Their defense is good, but not what we’d consider great. They’ve given up points in bunches at times, and depth is a major concern. Miami’s offensive line has been dominant, and if they win early downs, they can wear the Rebels down.

One other wrinkle in this game’s storyline that’s worth noting — Beck has faced Ole Miss before. Last year at Georgia, he struggled badly in Oxford as he threw for just 186 yards with no TDs and a pick in a 28-10 loss. The Rebels had his number then, of course, but this Miami offense is more balanced and better protected. If the Hurricanes run the ball well and Beck stays upright, that repeat performance is unlikely.

Prediction — Miami Controls the Clock, Secures a Spot in the Title Game

This is a classic case of chaos vs control. Ole Miss plays fast and loose and we all know that Chambliss is a playmaker. If they hit on a few deep shots and get out to an early lead, it changes everything on both sides of the ball. But Miami has faced explosive teams already this postseason and figured out how to shut them down, but that’s not a coincidence — it’s their identity.

The Hurricanes dominate at the line of scrimmage and their defensive front still gets pressure without blitzing. Their O-line protects Beck and allows them to stay in rhythm and that’s how you win playoff games.

Undoubtedly, Ole Miss will make a few plays as Chambliss is simply too good not to, but over 4 quarters, the Rebels haven’t shown they can consistently beat elite defenses without taking risks, and we all know that Miami will force mistakes. A key turnover or two could be the difference maker.

We would love to see Ole Miss go all the way considering their coaching situation, but Miami wins this game by slowing the tempo, winning the field position battle, and finishing drives when it matters.

• Final score: Miami 24, Ole Miss 17
• Best Bet: Miami -3.5

There’s still value on the Hurricanes at this number. They’ve already proven they can win against higher seeds by playing physical football. Their defensive line is the best unit in this game, and they have the better depth. If they avoid big mistakes, they should cover the spread.