Miami vs Ohio State Prediction — Can the Hurricanes Shock the Defending Champs?

The stage is set in Arlington for a high-stakes CFP quarterfinal as #2 Ohio State takes on #10 Miami in the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are looking to defend their national title, while the Hurricanes have fought their way back from a bit of a mid-season slide to earn a shot at a true Cinderella story, but there’s still a way to go for them. Kickoff is 6:30 PM EST tonight, and both teams are absolutely loaded with elite QB play, big-play potential, and plenty of recent momentum.

Game Details, Odds, and Stakes

This isn’t just another New Year’s bowl game; instead, it’s a CFP quarterfinal with a trip to the semis on the line. Ohio State, sitting at 12-1, enters as a 9.5-point favorite, with the total set at 40.5. The Buckeyes are coming off a tough 13-10 loss to undefeated Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, but still earned a first-round bye thanks to their dominant regular season.

Miami and its 11-2 record punched its ticket by knocking off the dominant Texas A&M 10-3 in the 1st round, extending its win streak to 5. It’s their 1st playoff appearance in this new expanded format and their 1st real shot at a national title in 2+ decades.

Moneyline odds currently sit at Ohio State -360, Miami +285. On paper, the Buckeyes have the edge in nearly every metric, but Miami’s hot streak and defensive toughness simply cannot be ignored and might be the wild card.

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Miami Hurricanes	+9.5 −110	O 40.5 −115	+285
Ohio State Buckeyes	−9.5 −110	U 40.5 −105	−360

Miami’s Turnaround and What’s Clicking

Let’s rewind back to November 1st, where Miami had just lost in overtime to SMU, their 2nd defeat in 3 games, and they were barely hanging onto playoff hopes. By anyone’s standards, that’s enough to get them out of the playoff discussion. But instead of folding, Mario Cristobal’s team responded, and since then, they’ve rattled off 5 straight wins by a combined score of 161-34, including blowouts over NC State and Pitt. They’re the definition of grit.

A lot of that success starts with QB Carson Beck, who transferred from UGA and has brought poise and experience. He’s thrown for 3,175 yards, 26 TDs, and completed 74.5% of his passes. He’s cooled off a bit since early in the season, but he still remains a steady hand and easily one of the best quarterbacks in NCAAF.

Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. adds a little balance with 857 yards and 10 TDs, and WR Xavier Restrepo and his 992 yards and 8 TDs have been Beck’s go-to guy. This is a team that has undoubtedly found its identity late in the year, and it’s paying off — balanced offense, efficient 3rd-down execution at 46.2%, and a nasty defense that gives up just 13 PPG.

That defense is the real story. Miami ranks 5th in scoring defense, allowing just 281.5 total yards, and has forced 14 picks. LB Mohamed Toure, who has 62 tackles, and defensive lineman Akheem Mesidor, who has 8.5 sacks, have been key to their recent dominance. This unit is built to bend but not break—and lately, it hasn’t even bent.

Ohio State’s Depth, Defense, and One Slip

The Buckeyes have been nearly perfect all year, and that lone blemish against Indiana — a 13-10 loss in the Big Ten title game — wasn’t their best moment, but it’s also something we shouldn’t overreact to. This is still a team ranked 1st in total defense, allowing a staggering 213.5 YPG, and only 8.2 PPG. That’s not just good. That’s borderline unfair.

At quarterback, Julian Sayin has been absolutely phenomenal. The Heisman finalist has thrown for 3,323 yards, 31 TDs, and only 6 INTs, while completing an absurd 78.4% of his passes. He was the backup last year, but looks every bit like a championship QB now.

His main weapon, Jeremiah Smith, has 1,086 receiving yards and 11 TDs despite fewer receptions than some other top wideouts. The offense ranks 31st in PPG with 34.9 and quietly moves the ball efficiently — especially on 3rd down as they’re converting at a 54.9% clip, which ranks 2nd nationally.

Defensively, it’s hard to find a weakness with this squad. Caden Curry leads the charge with 11 sacks, and Sonny Styles anchors the linebacking unit with 81 tackles. They’re the number one team in total defense and top-5 in both rushing and passing yards allowed.

Even special teams and time of possession lean their way. With that, if they play clean, and they typically do, they’re almost impossible to beat.

Prediction — Can Miami Hang?

Miami has been one of the best stories of this playoff, and their defense has the physicality to hang for a while. But here’s the problem we simply can’t overlook — Ohio State doesn’t give you much to work with. They’re not turnover-prone, they’re elite on 3rd down, and their defense makes you earn every yard. The Buckeyes have only allowed 3 teams to score 17+ points all season. None cracked 30.

Even in Miami’s recent wins, including TAMU, they haven’t faced a defense like this. Carson Beck has been steady, but he’ll be under pressure all night, and the Hurricanes’ run game, while solid, likely won’t have room to operate against a front that allows just 84.5 rushing yards per game.

If Sayin continues to take care of the football and hit his intermediate throws, this one could get away from Miami before the end of the 1st half. The Buckeyes’ last 5 wins before Indiana came by an average margin of 24.2 points, and that includes wins over UCLA, Michigan, and Rutgers.

Miami will bring the fight, which will make this a great game to watch, but they’ll need more than that to knock out the defending champs. In a game with 2 great defenses, trust the team that also brings elite QB play, better weapons, and a defense that simply doesn’t give up anything.

• Prediction: Ohio State 27, Miami 13
• Best Bet: Ohio State -9.5

It’s without a doubt a big number in a playoff game, but Ohio State has covered spreads like this all year. They’ve got the better quarterback, the better defense, and more playoff experience. Miami’s streak ends here, so take the Buckeyes to win by double digits and punch their ticket to the semifinals.