Mets vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick for the Series Finale

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals are wrapping up their 4-game series tonight, and after the first 3 games, it’s shaping up to be a big one. The Nationals hold a 2-1 series lead after a wild 8-7 win on Sunday that saw both teams flash the bats and rack up the runs, but with the series on the line, we expect the Mets to come out even more aggressive in this one.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Taking the mound for the Mets is right-hander Griffin Canning, who has quietly been one of the more consistent arms in their rotation early this season. He brings a 3-1 record with a 3.12 ERA and 1.38 WHIP into this matchup. While those numbers aren’t elite, they still show strong command and an ability to limit damage. Canning has struck out 26 batters across 26 innings while allowing only 3 yard bombs.

He’ll be going up against Trevor Williams for the Nationals. Williams has had a rough start to his 2025 campaign and he’ll look to shake that off in today’s game. He’s posting a 5.11 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP with a 1-2 record. He’s been tagged for 32 hits and 7 walks over his 24.2 innings of work, and his inability to keep the ball in the park has been a problem against good lineups.

The Mets enter the game as favorites despite being on the road, and it’s pretty easy to see why. They’re not only 1st in the NL East with a 19-9 record, but they hold the best record in the MLB. They’ve been absolutely dominant against weaker opponents. Washington, at only 13-15, is still trying to find its footing in an already very competitive division. Despite taking one game of the series so far, it’s hard to back the Nats when they’re up against a powerhouse like the Mets.

Mets vs Nationals Analysis

This series has been a little back and forth, but when you zoom out, New York is simply the better team.

Their pitching staff leads the majors with a 2.53 ERA and has been nothing less than exceptional at limiting both hits and walks. Opponents are batting just .225 against Mets pitchers, which ranks 7th in the league. That strong pitching has kept them in games even when the offense has been inconsistent, which is rare in of itself.

Offensively, the Mets are led by Pete Alonso, who’s been destroying the ball so far. Alonso is hitting a solid .333 with 6 dingers and 26 RBIs, showing once again why he’s one of the most feared sluggers in the National League. Francisco Lindor has also been heating up as well, logging at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 games against NL East opponents. His consistency at the plate has been a huge spark for a Mets lineup that ranks among the league’s better units in terms of runs scored and SLG — and all of that is even without Juan Soto heating up. He hasn’t been himself, but he’s still contributing with a .248 and leads the team with 20 runs.

On the other side of the field, the Nationals have been a little more scrappy. James Wood has been a bright spot in this lineup with 8 home runs and 19 RBIs, and Keibert Ruiz continues to show solid contact skills with a .297 AVG. However, outside of those few players, Washington’s offense is hit or miss. If they’re going to be competitive in the NL East they’ll need their depth to step up. Their pitching, especially their bullpen, remains the biggest question mark. The Nationals own a dismal 4.61 team ERA, and they allow a .253 AVG to opposing hitters, both numbers near the bottom of the league.

Adding to the challenge, Washington has not been good at putting teams away later in the game. They’re only 6-8 at home this season, and their struggles against higher-end pitching like what the Mets will bring have been noticeable. Trevor Williams facing a lineup that can punish him for mistakes feels like a recipe for trouble.

Something interesting is that New York has won 9 straight games against National League opponents following a road loss. That kind of bounce-back trend speaks volumes about the team’s resilience and coaching. They don’t get flustered after notching a loss, so we don’t expect yesterday’s close loss to affect them. 

Prediction and Best Bet

The Mets simply have too many advantages here to ignore despite the Nats having the lead in the series.

Griffin Canning should be able to manage the Nationals’ lineup and limit the damage, while the Mets’ bats eventually wear down Trevor Williams and a shaky Washington bullpen. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor will most likely have big nights, and the pitching matchup leans heavily toward New York.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Mets 6, Nationals 3
• Best Bet: Take the New York Mets on the moneyline at -162

With Canning on the bump and the offense ready to bounce back, New York should handle business and even the series.

Mets vs Nationals Same-Game Parlay Pick

While that -162 moneyline doesn’t look like much, you can always add in an SGP if you’re looking for a little bit of extra value. The +202 SGP combining Trevor Williams Over 5.5 Hits Allowed and New York Mets Over 5.5 Team Total Runs makes a lot of sense.

Trevor Williams has struggled badly with allowing runners on the basepaths all season as he’s given up 32 hits over just 24.2 innings, which averages well over one hit per inning. Against a Mets lineup featuring hot bats like Alonso, Lindor, and Soto expecting him to allow 6+ hits is very doable.

At the same time, the Mets’ offense has proven capable of big innings. This is especially true against subpar pitching. Washington’s bullpen isn’t exactly a wall of defense either, which gives the Mets a full 9 innings to plate 6+ runs. New York averages 4.2 runs per game, but considering the matchup and their bounce-back history after losses, the over looks even better here.

• SGP Pick: Trevor Williams Over 5.5 Hits Allowed + Mets Over 5.5 Runs at +202 odds