Marlins vs Braves Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for August 7

The Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves meet again tonight at Truist Park for the deciding game in a tied series. This series originally kicked off back in April, but the final game was postponed due to weather, and here we are.

Each team has pitched a shutout win in the first 2 games—Atlanta took Game 1 with a dominant 10-0 victory, while Miami bounced back in Game 2 with a 4-0 statement. Now, even though they’re two very different teams since those matchups, they’ll settle the score under the lights in what has become a crucial matchup for both sides.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

The first pitch is set for 7:20 PM ET in Atlanta, and the mound duel sets up an interesting contrast in both form and quality.

The Marlins will start Eury Perez, who’s quietly been one of the most reliable arms in their rotation. He’s 4-3 on the season with a decent 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 51 strikeouts in 50 innings. Perez isn’t just limiting runs — he’s limiting damage all around. Opponents are hitting just .209 OBA against him, and he’s only allowed 2 homers all year. He might not be a household name, but he’s undoubtedly dominating on the bump.

On the other side of the diamond, Carlos Carrasco gets the nod for the Braves. However, his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. The veteran RHP is 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA and a bloated 1.53 WHIP across just 38 innings. He’s given up 8 dingers and walked 12 batters in that span as well. It’s been a rough go for Carrasco, and Miami’s patient lineup might make it worse.

Latest Betting Odds and Market Movement

Miami comes into tonight as a slight road favorite at -114 on the moneyline, with Atlanta at -106. That line reflects more confidence in Perez than Carrasco, especially with the Braves limping into this game and doing whatever they can just to salvage a season.

The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, slightly juiced to the under at -117, which makes sense to us considering how both teams have struggled to put up runs lately. Miami on the run line at -1.5 pays +143, while Atlanta at +1.5 is priced at -175.

Sure, these are tight odds, which reflects how closely the books expect this to be played, but we’re seeing some sharper movement toward Miami with Perez getting the ball.

Breaking Down the Matchup

Momentum matters, and right now, the edge is clearly with the Marlins. Miami has won 6 of its last 8 games, including a sweep over the Yankees. They’ve outscored opponents 26-18 in their last 5 games, and most impressively, they’ve done it against playoff-level teams.

Miami’s offense is led by Kyle Stowers, who’s hitting .294 with 25 HRs and 71 RBIs. He’s not just padding stats in blowouts — he’s actually producing in key moments. Alongside him, Xavier Edwards is hitting .298 and getting on base at a .361 OBP. While the Marlins don’t have a flashy power lineup like some of the other teams, they rank 9th in the majors in AVG and are tough outs up and down the order.

Defensively, they’ve got the better arm on the mound and a bullpen that’s looked steadier in recent weeks. And while their overall team ERA of 4.43 ranks in the bottom half of the MLB, Perez stabilizes that a bit when he’s starting.

The Braves, meanwhile, are in an absolute freefall. They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games, including 3 straight, and in those 3 losses, they’ve scored a total of just 9 runs. Matt Olson is coming into the game with 18 HRs and 68 RBIs, and Austin Riley, with his .428 SLG, is the other key bat, but they’ve cooled off lately, and the team’s .241 average ranks just 21st in MLB.

Their team ERA is 4.23 — just barely better than Miami — but their bullpen has been inconsistent, and Carrasco hasn’t made it easy. The Braves’ offense ranks 23rd in runs and 28th in stolen bases. They’re simply a one-dimensional team right now, and if the long ball doesn’t show up, they struggle to manufacture anything at the plate.

Even at home, where the Braves usually shine, they’ve posted a 21-30-4 record against the over/under. Truist Park is averaging just 8.3 total runs per game, and with Perez on the hill, another under looks realistic.

The Prediction — Miami Finishes the Job

Everything about this matchup leans toward Miami, and it’s easy to see why. They’re playing overall better baseball, have the better starting pitcher, and are getting production from key hitters at the right time. It’s not flashy, but it seems to work for them. Atlanta is reeling, and Carrasco doesn’t inspire much confidence to get the job done. With how sharp Perez has looked and how poorly the Braves have swung it lately, it’s hard to back Atlanta, even on their own grass.

• Marlins vs Braves Prediction: Marlins 4, Braves 2
• Best Bet: Miami Marlins moneyline at -114

We expect the Marlins to limit scoring early and ultimately chip away at Carrasco. We think they’ll control the game behind a solid outing from Perez. Stowers should see some good pitches to hit against a contact-heavy pitcher, and Edwards setting the table will be key. It’s not a big bet, but when there’s only 4 games on the slate for today, we’ll take a -114.