Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 7 Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet

Game 7 of the ALCS has finally arrived, and it’s everything baseball fans could want — 2 teams tied at 3 games apiece and one night to decide who goes to the World Series to face the Dodgers. It doesn’t get any better than this. The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays have traded blows all series long, but after Toronto’s convincing win in Game 6, they’ll host the final and deciding game at Rogers Center tonight with the first pitch set for 7:07 PM ET.

These types of bets are tough because both teams are so good and obviously surging at the same time, but that’s also what makes it a fun pick and prediction.

Game Details, Odds, and Pitching Matchup

Toronto comes into Game 7 as a moderate home favorite, listed at just -133 on the moneyline, while Seattle is the underdog at +109. The run line sits at Blue Jays -1.5 at +147 and Mariners +1.5 at -181. The total is set at 7.5 runs, with both the over and under at -110 odds.

The bookmakers are drawing this down the middle about as much as you could expect.

It’ll be Shane Bieber on the mound for Toronto, making his 2nd postseason start after going 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 8.2 innings pitched. Bieber has been solid but hasn’t had a really dominant outing yet. He’s allowed 10 hits, 2 walks, and struck out 9. Those are great numbers, but he’s been better in the past.

Seattle counters with George Kirby, who has had a rough postseason. In 3 appearances, he’s logged 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA. He’s given up 17 hits, 4 HRs, and 11 earned runs, with just 13 Ks. Kirby has been up and down and yet to find rhythm, and now he faces the best-hitting team in the playoffs in their home stadium.

Toronto’s Bats Stay Hot

The Blue Jays’ offense has been the most consistent unit of this postseason, and it’s not even close. They lead all playoff teams in batting average with a .294, OBP at .353, slugging at .532, and OPS at .885. In contrast, Seattle ranks much lower — just a .212 AVG and .387 SLG — despite having some respectable bats in the lineup.

George Springer has been a major contributor with 32 HRs and a .309 AVG on the year, and Bo Bichette is hitting .311 with a .357 OBP. The Jays also boast some serious postseason depth as they’ve scored 67 runs in 10 playoff games, with contributions from all over the lineup. It’s tough for teams to pitch around batters when the depth is beyond belief.

Toronto’s Game 6 win showed exactly why they’re dangerous. They put up 11 hits, drew 4 walks, and struck out 13 Mariners. Even with 18 runners left on base, they still managed to post 6 runs. If anything, they left more on the table, and that just goes to show the potential of this team.

Seattle Needs More Than Just Power

The Mariners are undoubtedly built on power. Cal Raleigh has smashed 60 home runs and driven in 125 RBIs, and Eugenio Suarez is right up there with 49 knocks on the season  — but they’ve been feast or famine. Julio Rodríguez, despite a respectable .267 AVG and .474 SLG, has been somewhat quiet in the postseason. Seattle’s offense has scored just 46 runs in 11 playoff games, and they’ve struck out 120 times, almost double Toronto’s 58. Sometimes that aggressiveness pays off, but you also have to remember these aren’t some pushover mid-career pitchers they’re going against.

They did manage to win Game 2 in a 10-3 blowout and Game 5 with a gutsy 6-2 effort, but consistency has really been a problem. When they’re hot, they can mash with anyone, but when they’re not — and against a steady arm like Bieber — they struggle to string hits together.

Game 6 was another example of their issues. Seattle had 7 hits and 1 XBH, but went just 1-for-8 with RISP. They left 11 men on base and couldn’t capitalize on their limited opportunities. That’s not to say they can’t wake up for this Game 7, but let’s not forget that the Jays are just as motivated as the M’s.

Pitching Edge Favors the Blue Jays

Shane Bieber isn’t the Cy Young version of himself, but he doesn’t exactly need to be. He’s facing a Mariners lineup that’s hitting under .220 in the postseason and has struggled quite a bit in high-leverage moments. Toronto’s bullpen has also been nothing less than sharp, allowing just 2 earned runs in Game 6.

George Kirby’s 7.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in October are big red flags despite having a decent game mixed in against the Tigers in the ALDS, where he went 5 innings and 3 hits. The Blue Jays are hitting nearly .300 as a team and have shown they can hit for both power and contact. Toronto has also walked more and struck out less than Seattle in this series, and that’s not a good matchup for a struggling starter.

Prediction and Best Bet

There’s just too much pointing in Toronto’s direction here, and it’s hard to ignore. They’ve been the better offensive team, have home field, and their starter has outperformed Kirby in every way. The Blue Jays also have momentum after a commanding win in Game 6.

Unless Kirby completely flips the switch and completely lights out, Seattle is going to have trouble keeping pace. Toronto’s lineup is too deep, too disciplined, and just too hot right now. Game 7s are rarely blowouts, but the Blue Jays are built for this moment — especially at home.

• Prediction: Blue Jays 6, Mariners 3
• Best Bet: Take the Blue Jays moneyline at -133

The price is fair for the better team with the more reliable pitcher. If you’re looking for a little extra value, the Blue Jays -1.5 run line at +147 is also in play given how their bats have been performing, but as we said, Game 7s are different, and that’s where the risk is. Seattle is going to throw everything they have against the Blue Jays, so getting the spread might be a bridge too far despite the price being right.