March Madness Thursday Picks: 3 Best Bets for March 20

We are officially one day away from First Round action! Two underdogs make our list of best bets for Thursday’s slate for different reasons. 

First, VCU is a fake Cinderella in my eyes, traveling to a virtual away game against BYU in Denver, where the experienced Cougs should get the victory. However, Michigan plays a UCSD team that will give them problems on the offensive end, where the Tritons turn teams over more than 15 times per contest.

BYU ML over VCU & OVER 146.5 Points (+193)

The winner of this game has a real shot at a Sweet 16 appearance, and I believe the BYU Cougars will be that squad. Why? BYU is playing in an elevation home game in Denver, Colorado. Normally, the Cougs struggle in the NCAA Tournament when they head to play at sea level. 

However, this won’t be the case for the first and second rounds. Furthermore, BYU is led by a slew of high-level scorers and has a capable point guard in potential lottery pick Egor Denim. Although VCU’s defense ranks top 25 on most advanced sites including Kenpom, take BYU to win at ‘home’ in a game that should go over the point total. 

Over the last two seasons when Salt Lake City and Denver hosted first-round games, the ‘over’ has hit more times than not in the opening two rounds of play.

UCSD ML (+116) over Michigan

I love Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines, but they got handed the worst draw of any Big 10 team and honestly, any team in the tournament. The Wolverines will have to fly to Denver to play a red-hot UCSD team that directly plays to their strengths and Michigan’s weaknesses. 

The Big 10 Tournament champions struggle in the turnover category. UCSD forces 15.6 turnovers per game which ranks best among tournament teams. Furthermore, they play a wonky zone with a handful of 6’7 wings that teams tend to struggle against. 

The Wolverines have two bigs that could exploit this in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, but I envision Michigan struggling from beyond the arc and the Tritons capitalizing off long rebounds and running the other way. The UCSD Cinderella story should continue through the weekend in Denver.

UCLA -5.5 over Utah State

If 2024 March Madness and this Tuesday didn’t teach us a lesson, let me give you one: Fade the Mountain West. This conference looks incredible on paper but just cannot seem to get it done in March outside of San Diego State’s occasional defense-wins-it-all type runs. 

Utah State went 2-4 in Quad 1, including three blowout losses. With an easy non-conference schedule at the start of the season and a 15-5 conference record, the Aggies don’t move the needle for me against a UCLA team that could shut them down for less than 60 points. 

Although Cronin’s Bruins have their fair share of holes on the offensive end, Utah State ranks 151st in the country in DRTG via Kenpom. UCLA’s defense should shine through in this game with their deep bench full of guards that could get hot against a weaker defensive team. The Bruins won the only game they have played in Rupp Arena in 2016-17 when they defeated Kentucky 97-92.