Maple Leafs vs Blue Jackets Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick

Tonight is definitely a slower night of NHL action after the Frozen Frenzy last night, but if you still want to place some bets on hockey, there’s only one show in town. The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Ohio tonight to take on the Columbus Blue Jackets in a matchup of two relatively evenly matched records. Both clubs come in with 5 wins under their belts, and both are fresh off OT wins last night. But while the standings may suggest a coin flip, there are a few key factors that tip the scale.

Toronto is 5-4-1 on the season, but still winless on the road, where they’re sitting at 0-2-0. Columbus sits at 5-4-0 overall, with an underwhelming 1-3-0 record at home. Despite both playing the second leg of back-to-back games, this one comes down to scoring consistency, special teams, and who’s more reliable in goal.

Game Details and Current Odds

With the puck drop scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Nationwide Arena in Columbus, the Blue Jackets are slight home favorites at -115 on the moneyline, and the Maple Leafs are listed at -105. The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the over juiced at -130 and the under offering +110.

Bookmakers are calling this one tight, and that totally makes sense. These are two teams with top-end scorers but several defensive flaws, and both have a recent history of high-scoring games. Toronto is coming off a 4-3 win over Calgary, and Columbus just edged out Buffalo in a 4-3 overtime. After bonus hockey just last night, these players are without a doubt gassed.

It’s no wonder these odds are near even.

Who Has the Edge?

The Maple Leafs are a team built around firepower, and that’s been on full display this season. They’re scoring 3.50 GPG, which ranks 9th in the NHL. Their top line is undoubtedly producing well, with William Nylander sitting at 15 points, spanning 3 goals and 12 assists, and John Tavares and Auston Matthews each chipping in 5 goals of their own. Matthews leads the team in shots with 41 and continues to be a volume threat every night.

Max Domi and Matthew Knies are also heating up, with both finding the net twice in their win last night. Toronto has cashed the over in 5 straight games, averaging 3.2 goals scored and 4.0 goals allowed per game during that span, which makes us want to lean towards the over. The offense is definitely clicking, but defense remains the biggest concern.

Goaltending has been rough. Anthony Stolarz and Cayden Primeau are splitting starts, but neither has a GAA under 3.25, and both sit below a .890 SV%. That’s a dangerous mix, especially for a team that also ranks just 12th in PK at 82.1%. Both of these netminders have the potential to be dangerous in the crease, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have been overachieving lately. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and are averaging 3.6 GPG over that stretch. Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko are tied for the team lead with 5 goals each, and Voronkov also has 4 helpers. This team is finding ways to score and seems to be playing with confidence.

But Columbus has some glaring issues as well. They rank dead last in penalty kill percentage at just 63.3%. That’s a major red flag against a Leafs team with elite puck movement and that can crush opponents with the man advantage. Their defense is middle of the pack, and although their goalies, Elvis Merzlikins, who is sitting at .915 SV%, and Jet Greaves and his .907 SV%, have solid numbers, they’ve both had to make a lot of high-danger saves to stay competitive. The blue line hasn’t done these goalies any favors.

The Jackets are allowing nearly 33 shots per game, the 4th-most in the league, and they take more penalties than they should, ranking 8th in total penalty minutes. Against a team like Toronto, that’s playing with pace and talent, that could be a major problem heading into tonight’s matchup.

Prediction and Best Bet

Columbus is undoubtedly hot right now, but they’ve done most of their damage on the road. At home, oddly enough, they’re just 1-3 and haven’t shown they can string together clean defensive games. Toronto, on the other hand, has more top-end scoring potential and a special teams advantage, especially on the power play, where Columbus continues to struggle.

• Final score prediction: Maple Leafs 4, Blue Jackets 3
• Best Bet: Take the Maple Leafs moneyline at -105

The value is solid for the more talented team. Despite the Leafs’ shaky goaltending, their offense is simply more trustworthy in a Wednesday night showdown like this. They’ve scored 4 goals in back-to-back wins and have the ability to punish teams that can’t stay disciplined.

If you’re looking at a player prop to expand your betting action, take a look at William Nylander to record over 1.5 points at +200, as he continues to lead Toronto in assists and is involved in nearly every goal. He’s recorded points in each of his last 6 games, and 4 of them were multipoint games.