The Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams are about to go head-to-head in the NFC Divisional Round this afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field. It’s going to be a great game, though, we think this might be a little more lopsided than the other AFC game today.
Both teams notched massive wins in the Wild Card round over some really good teams. The Eagles are coming off a huge 22-10 win over the Green Bay Packers, while the Rams punched their ticket by dismantling the Minnesota Vikings 27-9.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites heading into this rematch of their Week 12 showdown, where Philadelphia dominated the entire game and won 37-20.
The Eagles are heavily favored by 6 points, with the over/under set at just 44. Apparently, the bookmakers think this game will be one-sided as Philadelphia is listed at -278 on the money line, while Los Angeles comes in as +226 underdogs.
In their regular-season meeting, the Eagles’ offense, led in part by Saquon Barkley, carved up the Rams’ defense for 255 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns. Barkley has been absolutely unstoppable this season and has surpassed the 2,000-yard mark on the ground while averaging an insane 5.8 yards per carry. He piled up 119 more yards in last week’s convincing win over the Packers.
The Rams, on the other hand, have won 6 of their last 7 games. They’re fueled by improved play from Matthew Stafford and a pass rush that registered a whopping 9 sacks against the Vikings. Sam Darnold will need some recovery time after that game. Stafford is looking like his classic self as he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 TDs during the season but has to avoid mistakes against an Eagles defense that thrives on creating turnovers.
LAR Rams | PHI Eagles | |
---|---|---|
6-4 | Home | 9-1 |
5-3 | Road | 6-2 |
10-8 | ATS | 12-6 |
8-10 | O/U | 7-11 |
W1 | Streak | W3 |
21.9 | Avg. Points For | 26.9 |
21.9 | Avg. Points Against | 17.4 |
7.0 | Avg. Winning Margin | 12.9 |
11.1 | Avg. Losing Margin | 7.0 |
We see the Eagles’ biggest advantage coming into this matchup is their elite rushing attack. Led by Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, they know how to pound the ground and pick up big yardage.
Philadelphia ranks second in the league in rushing yards and faces a Rams defense that has struggled against the run game as they rank 26th in yards allowed per carry. If the Eagles can control the clock and force the Rams to play from behind, they’ll have no problem at all covering the 6 point spread.
Defensively, the Eagles are smoking hot in the red zone. They’ve allowed touchdowns on just 48% of opponents’ trips inside the 20. That could be one of their best attributes against a Rams offense that has leaned heavily on Stafford’s arm.
To top that off, Hurts has been in top form, throwing 18 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions this season and going 7 straight games without a pick. Let’s not forget that he did all of that while missing a few games in concussion protocol.
On the other side of the field, the Rams come into this game with momentum, having won 6 of their last 7 games.
Their defense has stepped up quite a bit lately, especially in the pass rush. Against Minnesota, the Rams recorded 9 sacks and held the Vikings to under 200 total yards. That’s not bad considering the Viking’s offensive line is nothing to scoff at. If the Rams can bring that kind of pressure again, they could disrupt Philadelphia’s rhythm and make this game a bit more competitive.
On offense, Stafford’s poise will be crucial. He hasn’t thrown more than 1 interception in a game since mid-November and has a history of big performances in the playoffs.
The Rams also feature one of the best rookie WRs with Puka Nacua, who racked up 990 receiving yards and could find himself as an X-factor against an Eagles secondary that occasionally struggles against physical receivers. He knows how to create space and rack up yards after catch.
While the Rams’ late-season surge has been nothing less than impressive, the Eagles are the more balanced team coming into today’s game, especially at home.
Barkley’s dominance on the ground combined with Hurts’ efficiency gives Philadelphia the tools to control the game from start to finish. If they limit mistakes, which we think they will, they’ll have this game in their pocket from the beginning.
The Rams’ defense has improved but still has trouble containing strong running teams — and that’s exactly what the Eagles are. This was evident in their Week 12 loss to the Eagles.
On the other side, the Eagle’s defense has consistently limited big-chunk plays and could force Stafford into mistakes if the Rams fall behind early and he starts getting desperate.
Philadelphia has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 games and is 6-1-1 against the number at home against the Rams. We don’t see this going any other way unless some big mistakes are made. With Barkley and Hurts leading the charge, we expect the Eagles to advance to the NFC Championship Game while covering the spread.
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