Los Angeles Kings vs. Carolina Hurricanes Expert Prediction and Best Bet

The Los Angeles Kings face off against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight in Raleigh. Both teams are in some intense playoff contention, but Carolina comes into this matchup as a -155 moneyline favorite with a really strong home-ice advantage at the Lenovo Center. The Kings, a decent team in their own right, sitting at +135, will need a near-perfect performance to escape with 2 points.

With that, there are some hot bets to make on this game and we’ve got the stats to support it.

Odds and Analysis

The Hurricanes have been absolutely dominant at home as they’re boasting a 20-5-1 record at Lenovo Center this season. They’ve also won 76.9% of their home games which makes Raleigh one of the toughest places for visitors to come in and walk away victorious.

Los Angeles, on the other hand, is just 11-14-5 on the road and has struggled recently. Despite being a relatively strong team, they’ve been 1-4-0 in their last 5 games.

Looking a little deeper, Carolina has an edge offensively as they’re averaging 3.35 goals per game compared to the Kings’ 2.76.

The Hurricanes also generate more shots per game 31.8 vs. the Kings 27.6 and have been more consistent on the power play with a 20.5% success rate compared to the Kings’ 15.5%. 

On defense, however, the gap is a bit narrower.

Carolina allows just 2.69 goals per game, while Los Angeles gives up 2.53. Defense is a big reason why Los Angeles has been so good this year.

Both teams have reliable goaltending, but Carolina’s Pyotr Kochetkov has been a monster in between the pipes with 19 wins, a 2.47 GAA, and a .903 save percentage. For the Kings, Darcy Kuemper has been solid as well with his 14 wins and a .921 save percentage, but he’ll need to outshine Kochetkov to give Los Angeles a fighting chance.

Key Factors to Watch

So far, it’s looking like this game will go to the Canes fairly easily, but there are a few areas we think might make a big difference in this matchup.

1. Injury Report. Carolina will likely be without Sebastian Aho, who is day-to-day but it sounds like it is unlikely he will suit up. His absence shifts pressure to the newly acquired Mikko Rantanen after losing Martin Necas in a blockbuster 3-way trade. Fortunately, he’s quite an upgrade with 66 points, 26 goals, and 40 assists on the season. On the Kings’ side of the ice, injuries to defensemen Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson could make it a little harder to contain Carolina’s dominant offense.
2. Momentum. The Hurricanes enter tonight’s game on a 2-game win streak which includes a dominant 4-0 victory over the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Kings have dropped 2 games back-to-back, including a 5-1 loss to Pittsburgh, and have scored just 4 goals in their last 3 games. Momentum is definitely favoring the Canes.
3. Second-Period Strength. Carolina excels when leading after 2 periods. They have won 88.5% of such games, compared to Los Angeles’ 25% success rate when trailing after 40 minutes. The Kings can’t afford a slow start in this one and will have to keep pressure on for the full 60.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Hurricanes clearly have the upper hand in nearly every key area.

Their scoring depth, home dominance, and Kochetkov’s strong play make them the safer pick for just about every game bet tonight.

Los Angeles’ road struggles and lack of recent momentum don’t inspire much confidence, especially against a Carolina team that’s near unbeatable on their home ice.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Hurricanes win 4-2
• Best Bet: Take Carolina on the moneyline (-155)

While we will agree that the spread at -1.5 (+160) offers some decent value, the Kings’ ability to keep games close with their 2.2 average losing margin makes the safer moneyline option more appealing in the end.

We expect Carolina to control this one from the beginning, especially if their offense gets rolling early. They have all of the tools to get the job done and the momentum is definitely with them for tonight’s inter-conference showdown.