Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Expert Analysis, and Our Best Bet

The Dodgers and Braves just wrapped up their opening series and despite both being favorites for their respective divisions, both went very different directions.

Tyler Glasnow is taking the bump for Los Angeles and Grant Holmes for Atlanta. While the Dodgers are 5-0 early in the season, the Braves are 0-4. But we can’t make any conclusions after just a single series, so this early-season clash offers a great look at how these rotations might hold up across the year.

Dodgers vs Braves Odds and Pitching Breakdown

Los Angeles enters as the slight favorite, and much of that is because of the man on the mound.

Tyler Glasnow has the pedigree, the stuff, and the upside to absolutely dominate for a good 6-7 innings — if not more. When he’s right, he’s one of the best strikeout artists in baseball.

Last season, he hit a career-high in innings, strikeouts, and starts —all while dealing with an elbow issue that ended his year a bit earlier than expected. The Dodgers are managing him carefully in 2025, but early signs point to improved mechanics and better recovery. However, he will probably only stay on the mound for around 60-70 pitches just until he gets back into the groove.

Glasnow’s biggest issue has always been health. He’s never thrown more than 135 innings in a season, and while the Dodgers’ six-man rotation might help preserve him a bit more than in the past, bettors should still look at him as a volatile asset game-to-game. However, when he’s locked in, he’s nearly unhittable. That’s why the Dodgers are banking on him setting the tone in this matchup.

On the other side of the field, Grant Holmes is a total wildcard. He showed some decent flashes in 2024, working mostly out of the bullpen but tossing just enough innings as a starter to get a look for the back end of the Braves rotation this year. In fact, he’s already thrown one inning of relief against the Padres back on Opening Day whiffed 2, and didn’t let any runners get on base.

He’s got a nasty slider that gave lefties fits last season, and his spring performance of 1 run and 9 Ks in 10 innings tells us that he’s ready to take a step forward.

But here’s the thing — Holmes has never gone deep into games. Only 3 times last year did he throw 70+ pitches. If Atlanta is rolling with an opener-style usage or a quick hook again, it’s going to be tough for bettors to bank on a quality start or even a win. And against a Dodgers lineup that can punish bullpens, that matters.

What the Matchup Tells Us

The contrast in experience is massive. Glasnow has over 800 career strikeouts and real postseason experience, when he’s healthy of course. Holmes, meanwhile, is just trying to stick on a roster. This is an edge for the Dodgers on the mound, no doubt.

That said, Atlanta’s bullpen was one of the best in the league last year, and if Holmes can survive through 4-5 good innings, they have the arms to keep things close.

Offensively, we all know that the Braves can hit anyone. But they haven’t seen Glasnow too much, and he’s the kind of pitcher that can keep even elite lineups quiet for 5-6 innings when he’s dealing. Again, we’re not sure he’s going to go that far tonight.

The key matchup? Glasnow vs. the top of the Braves order. If he can get through Jurickson Profa, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson cleanly early, this game tilts heavily toward Los Angeles.

Holmes will need to limit walks and hope the Dodgers chase his slider. That’s a tough ask against a lineup that grinds out at-bats and punishes mistakes.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game feels like a pitching mismatch from the start, but it’s difficult to go just off of pitching because we’re confident neither of these will go deep into the game. Glasnow’s upside, paired with the Dodgers’ improved rotation strategy, makes this a prime spot for Los Angeles to take game 1 of the series.

Holmes might be a nice long-term project for Atlanta, but early in the season, he’s not the guy you want facing Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Shohei Ohtani out of the gate, especially not in a rubber match.

Even if Glasnow only gives them 5 solid innings, the Dodgers bullpen can handle the rest. And if Holmes falters early, it puts pressure on Atlanta’s relievers to carry too much of the load against a dominant Dodgers.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Dodgers 5, Braves 3
• Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)

You’re getting some decent value here, and the matchup just favors L.A. too much to pass up. 

Take the run line and trust Glasnow to do enough to keep the Braves bats quiet. If the Braves had Chris Sale on the bump, we might be looking at the Dodger’s first loss of the season, but he takes the mound tomorrow night.

We expect the Dodgers to cover this comfortably if they put up 4+ runs.