Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Pick for TNF

The New York Jets are heading to Foxborough tonight, trying to keep an ever-so-small wave of momentum alive, while the New England Patriots are aiming to extend an impressive 7-game win streak. New England sits at 8-2 and has been absolutely dominating opponents with a decent mix of explosive plays, sharp QB play from Drake Maye, and a defense that has been nothing less than elite against the run. The Jets, on the other hand, come in at 2-7, and while they’ve shown life the past couple of weeks, this matchup brings a very different level of challenge, which they haven’t had much luck against.

Game Details

This AFC East game kicks off at 7:15 PM in Foxborough and airs on Prime Video. The weather is expected to be pretty cold, which tends to play into New England’s hands. The Patriots responded well to their quick turnaround after beating Tampa Bay, and they’re healthier than they’ve been in weeks. The Jets will be without Garrett Wilson, leaving them thin at receiver in a game where they’ll likely need chunk plays to keep up with the Pats’ explosive offense.

The Jets’ offense still leans almost entirely on Breece Hall, and recent results show that clearly. Their 27-20 win over Cleveland turned out to be just 169 total yards, and Hall accounted for 125 of them. Without Wilson, the burden on Hall gets even heavier than it was before, and that’s a rough setup against a Patriots defense ranked near the top of the league in several major categories.

Betting Odds

Sportsbooks have New England as a whopping 12.5-point favorite at -115, while the Jets sit at +12.5 at -105. The total is set at 43.5, with the over at -108 and the under at -112. The Patriots are massive favorites straight up at -850, and the Jets are listed at +575 on the moneyline, which could be a big play if the Patriots treat tonight like a trap game.

Those prices match how these teams are trending. The Patriots are undoubtedly controlling games with explosive scoring swings and a balanced offense. Sure, the Jets have won 2 straight, but both came in close games where Hall essentially carried the entire load against fairly weak teams. Asking them to repeat that against one of the league’s best run defenses feels like a stretch, and that’s a tall order.

Analysis, Matchups, and Prediction

The strength-on-weakness matchups in this game all point to New England. The Jets allow 138.2 rushing YPG, one of the highest marks in the league, while the Patriots’ run game has taken off behind TreVeyon Henderson, who broke touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards last week. Those kinds of plays easily flip field position in seconds, and they shorten drives for an offense that is already a top-10 squad.

On the flip side, New England’s defense ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed per game with 79.2 and 6th in points allowed with 19.2. That’s exactly the wrong matchup for a Jets team that needs Hall to carry the team. When teams take the run away from New York, they struggle to move the ball at all, and with Wilson out, it’s going to be even worse. Fields has thrown for 1,143 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 pick, but the passing game has lacked any sort of rhythm and efficiency. Last week’s 54-yard passing performance from Fields highlights the issue.

The Jets’ defense is better than their record, especially against the pass, as they’re giving up 190.8 YPG, but that unit just took a hit with Wilson sidelined and Will McDonald IV listed as questionable despite having 7 sacks this season. Even when healthy, they’ve struggled against top passing offenses, and that’s what they’ll find with Maye under center. Earlier in the year, against Dallas and Buffalo — both top-tier passing teams — the Jets allowed 30+ points and lost by 15 and 20.

New England doesn’t just bring efficiency, but it also brings volatility. Maye has thrown for 2,555 yards and 19 TDs, and he has been especially sharp in Foxborough. Add in the big-play ability of Kyle Williams and Henderson, and the Jets’ defense will need to avoid any and all mistakes. That’s been a challenge as they’re still sitting at 0 interceptions on the season, while the Patriots have forced 7.

New England also holds advantages in key situational spots, such as their 3rd-down conversion rate, which sits at 42%, while the Jets rank 28th at 34.2%. The Patriots also control time of possession, averaging 31:25 per game compared to the Jets at 29:02. When you combine field position, situational efficiency, and big-play weapons all over the field, this matchup leans strongly one way.

Making the Pats and Jets Prediction

The Jets deserve credit for their recent effort, and Hall has been nothing short of incredible, but beating Cincinnati 39-38 and holding off Cleveland after generating fewer than 200 yards isn’t a platform you want heading into Foxborough on a short week.

New England, without a doubt, has the better quarterback, the better defense, the more complete offense, the more consistent coaching, and home-field advantage. Unless the Patriots somehow turn the ball over multiple times and don’t come back with answers, this one tilts heavily in their favor.

• Prediction: Patriots 30, Jets 16
• Best Bet: Patriots -12.5 at -115

The Patriots’  run defense is too strong, and their explosive playmakers create too many quick strikes for a Jets team already short on weapons. We don’t see this game unfolding any other way. The Patriots will clear the spread.