Islanders vs Jets Prediction — Road-Tested Isles Catch Jets at a Vulnerable Time

The New York Islanders head out west to Winnipeg tonight, riding a decent stretch of form, and will look to keep things moving in the right direction against a Jets team trying to claw its way back into playoff relevance. While Winnipeg is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in a while, the Islanders have been one of the tougher teams to put away — especially when they get their offense rolling and find the back of the net.

This will be the 2nd and final meeting of the season between these two. Winnipeg handled New York in their first matchup back in October, skating away with a 5-2 win, but the Islanders have sharpened up since then and could be catching the Jets just as things start to wobble again. This game already feels much different than the first.

Game Info, Betting Lines, and What’s at Stake

The puck drops at 8:00 PM EST tonight at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg. The bookmakers have the Jets listed as -135 favorites on the moneyline, with the Islanders coming back at +114. The total is set at 5.5 goals, shaded slightly toward the over at -115.

Winnipeg is on the struggle bus as they enter the game 17-22-5 on the season, including a pretty weak 10-9-3 record at home. The Islanders are 25-15-5 and have done well away from home, posting an 11-7-3 road record. It’s never a good start when the away team’s road record is better than the home team’s home record.

It’s a big game for both sides, but for different reasons. The Islanders are trying to stack points on a long road swing and keep up with the Canes in the Metro Division, while the Jets are hoping to string together 3 straight wins for the first time since October to stay alive in the Wild Card race. There’s still plenty of hockey left, but we’re definitely at a spot where we should start discussing playoff hopes.

Jets Trending Up… But Are They Back?

The Jets just ended an ugly 11-game winless streak with wins over LA and New Jersey, both of which are far from pushovers. Offensively, they looked more like themselves in those games, scoring 4 and 5 goals respectively. Cole Perfetti has quietly been a spark, putting up 2 helpers in each of the last 2 games. Mark Scheifele continues to drive their top line with 22 goals and 30 assists, as expected, and Kyle Connor adds a little more firepower with 21 goals and 19 assists on the season. The offense has been there lately, but it’s still a far cry from consistent.

Defensively, Winnipeg remains shaky, at best. They rank 15th in GAA at 3.11, and their PK unit sits near the bottom of the league at 77.7%. In between the pipes, Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t been himself as he has struggled to carry the load. His 2.70 GAA and .901 SV% have been part of the problem as he’s used to putting up better numbers. The Jets have given up 3+ goals in 7 of their last 8 games. Even with recent wins, they’re still leaking defensively.

Islanders Playing Tight and Tough

The Islanders are doing what they do best — staying tight defensively and getting timely scoring. It’s a simple equation, tough to rely upon, but it works for them. They’ve won 6 of their last 10 and earned points in 8 of those games. During that stretch, they’ve allowed just 2.2 GAA. A big reason for that is Ilya Sorokin. He’s back to being a game-changer in the net, with a .915 SV% and a 2.47 GAA on the year. He’s also won 14 games and looks locked in right now. Over his last 2 games, he allowed just 3 goals over 121 minutes of hockey.

Offensively, Mathew Barzal continues to lead the top 6, leading the team with 36 points and 25 helpers. Bo Horvat has quietly scored 21 goals on his own, and he remains their best finisher in tight. The X-factor lately has been Simon Holmstrom. He’s on a season-best 3-game goal streak, including a 2-goal game in their 4-3 OT win over Minnesota. That kind of depth scoring is huge for a team that doesn’t usually blow anyone out — with the exception of their recent 9-0 win over New Jersey.

The Islanders’ special teams have also given them a leg up. Their PK unit ranks top 10 at 81.7%, and while their power play struggles at just 15.3%, they tend to stay disciplined enough to limit damage. They average fewer PIM than the Jets and are better structured defensively.

New York has a strange but telling stat in that they’re 18-1-3 in games where they score 3+ goals. If the offense shows up, they almost always get the result, and that puts pressure on Winnipeg’s defense, which hasn’t looked convincing for weeks. This game will be a race to 3.

Prediction — Islanders Roll the Jets

Winnipeg has done just enough to stay in games recently, but nothing about their 2-game win streak screams sustainability. They beat the Kings and barely got past the Devils, but so did the Islanders. New York, on the other hand, is consistently playing smart hockey, getting elite goaltending, and finding just enough offense to win close games.

This matchup easily favors New York where it matters. They’re the better defensive team, have the better goalie, and they’re winning the types of games the Jets are still dropping — those tight, grind-it-out battles where mistakes get punished. With Sorokin playing as well as he is and Holmstrom catching fire, the Islanders have the clear edge here, even on the road.

The Jets may be feeling better after 2 wins, and their fans are probably excited, but the cracks are nonetheless still there. They’ve allowed 17 goals over their last 5 games and haven’t shown they can string together strong defensive efforts. Unless Hellebuyck suddenly flips the switch and gets back to his old ways, this is New York’s game to lose.

• Prediction: Islanders 4, Jets 2
• Best Bet: Islanders Moneyline at +114

There’s solid value on the road underdog here, and that’s what we love the most about this bet. The Islanders are a better team right now as they’re controlling games, getting big saves, and winning despite being in the middle of a tough road trip. Winnipeg has too many holes defensively, and even though their offense has picked up just a bit, they’re still vulnerable in their own zone.