Indiana vs Oregon Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Saturday’s Big Ten Clash

The #7 Indiana Hoosiers and #3 Oregon Ducks both bring perfect 5-0 records into a Big Ten showdown this afternoon in Eugene. With explosive offenses, solid defenses, and a combined average margin of victory of 30+ points per game, this matchup is shaping up to be one of the best in Week 7.

Game Details and Latest Betting Odds

The Ducks come into this game as 7-point home favorites over the Hoosiers. The total is set at a whopping 53.5 points, with the moneyline currently showing Oregon at -278 and Indiana at +225.

It’s clear that Oregon’s home dominance is a big part of that line. The Ducks haven’t lost at Autzen Stadium since 2022 and have covered the spread in 8 straight October games as a favorite against AP-ranked teams. Sure, that’s fairly obscure, but it feels right when you realize that Indiana has lost 19 of its last 20 road games against ranked opponents.

Still, both teams are unbeaten in the 2025 season, ranked in the top 10, and come into this game looking more complete than they have in years. This one will tell us a lot about who’s a real threat in the Big Ten.

Breaking Down Indiana — Elite Numbers, But Untested?

Indiana is averaging 47.8 points per game, which ranks 4th in the country. They’re putting up an insane 538.2 total YPG — 6th-best nationally — and they’ve been dominant on both the ground and through the air. QB Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards, completing 73% of his passes with 16 TDs and just one interception. Running back Roman Hemby has added 351 rushing yards and averages 5+ yards per carry.

Senior WR Elijah Sarratt is Mendoza’s favorite target, with 412 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 31 catches. This offense is balanced, efficient, and rarely makes big mistakes. They’re converting nearly 60% on 3rd down and holding the ball for almost 35 minutes per game, which is good for the top 10 in both categories.

Defensively, the Hoosiers are just as good. They’re shutting down opponents by allowing just 9.6 PPG and 221.4 YPG, both of which are also in the top 10 in the country. They’ve been especially stingy against the run, allowing just 88 YPG. Add in 7 interceptions on the season, and this unit has been one of the best in the country — at least on paper.

The big question we have is how much of that is inflated by the schedule? Indiana’s last 5 wins came against Iowa, Illinois, Indiana State, Kennesaw State, and Old Dominion — not exactly murderers’ row. Beating #17 Illinois 63-10 at home was a show of dominance, but it was also the first time Indiana faced a defense with somewhat of a pulse.

Oregon’s Complete Team Has a Major Edge at Home

While Indiana’s numbers pop, Oregon has played fairly solidly as well. The Ducks come into this one averaging 46.6 PPG and allowing just 12.2, ranking 6th and 8th nationally in those categories.

QB Dante Moore is putting together a stellar sophomore campaign as he’s thrown for 1,210 yards and 14 TDs while completing over 74% of his passes. He’s been efficient, calm under pressure, and explosive when it counts the most.

The Ducks are also dangerous on the ground, where Dierre Hill Jr. leads the rushing attack with 270 yards on just 26 carries, good for over 10 yards per touch. When Oregon wants to chew clock, they undoubtedly can, and when they need a big play, they’ve got the speed to break one. The tools are there.

Defensively, Oregon might be even more impressive. They’ve allowed just 123.4 passing YPG, which is good for 6th-best nationally, and only 114.8 on the ground. Linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei leads the team in sacks with 4, while Bryce Boettcher leads in tackles with 39.

The Ducks are also incredibly deep. Against Oklahoma State, 7 different players recorded TDs, and 10 recorded catches. This isn’t a team that depends on one guy — they can beat you in a bunch of ways, which makes them a nightmare to prepare for and defend against.

Prediction — Ducks Too Deep, Too Tough at Home

Indiana has been dominant, no doubt. They’ve put up monster stats and rolled through weaker opponents. But they haven’t faced a team quite like Oregon. The Ducks have the more tested QB1, the better offensive line, and more depth on both sides of the ball.

Most importantly, Oregon hasn’t lost at home in nearly 3 years. Autzen Stadium is a real edge, and it shows — Oregon has won 18 straight at home and covered the spread in nearly all of those games when facing ranked opponents.

We have to acknowledge that Indiana has been sharp, and head coach Curt Cignetti deserves a ton of credit, but when he faces elite talent — as he did last year in double-digit losses to Notre Dame and Ohio — his teams tend to fall a bit short. This feels like another one of those spots.

• Final Score Prediction: Oregon 38, Indiana 27
• Best Bet: Take Oregon -7

The Ducks are much deeper, more tested, and extremely dominant at home. Indiana’s offense won’t fold, but Oregon’s balance and firepower will prove too much down the stretch.