Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction — Two Unbeatens Collide for Big Ten Glory

For the first time since the SEC showdowns of the late 2000s, the 2 top-ranked teams in the country will face off in a conference title game, which makes this probably the best game of the weekend. #1 Ohio State (12-0) and #2 Indiana (12-0) both roll into the Big Ten Championship unbeaten and playoff-bound — but only one will leave with the conference crown and the perfect record. In fact, the last time we’ve seen 2 teams stay perfect through the season and through the bowl games was 2009 when Alabama won the BCS title, and TCU won the Rose Bowl, but with the CFP format, someone has to lose.

Game Details and Betting Odds

This isn’t just any title game — it’s literally history in the making. Both teams are unbeaten, both have Heisman-contending QBs, and both have defenses that have smothered opponents all year.

Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST tonight, and according to several bookmakers, Ohio State opened as a 5.5-point favorite, though the line has settled at -4. The total sits at 47.5, a nod to the strength of both defenses. Indiana is +164 on the moneyline, while Ohio State is -198.

The spread may be tight, as we all figured it would, but the implications are massive. This is more than just seeding, this is about claiming Big Ten supremacy.

Big-Time Players in a Big-Time Game

Let’s not overcomplicate it any more than it has to be — this game will come down to the playmakers.

For Indiana, everything starts with Fernando Mendoza, who’s passed for 2,758 yards and leads the offense that’s scoring 44.3 PPG, 3rd-best in the nation. Roman Hemby has added 866 yards in the trenches, while Omar Cooper Jr. leads a deep receiving group with a hefty 804 yards.

The Hoosiers are built to control the clock and wear you down for a full 60 minutes. They rank 8th nationally in total offense with 483.8 YPG, including 14th in rushing, and dominate time of possession at 33:40 per game. They’re the real deal up front.

Defensively, Rolijah Hardy has been everywhere with 7.0 sacks and 71 tackles, while Louis Moore adds ball-hawking ability with 5 picks. This is a battle-tested unit giving up just 10.9 PPG — and it’s not a fluke. They held UCLA to 6, Wisconsin to 7, and completely shut down Maryland and Purdue. They might not have the clout some of the other teams have heading into the CFP, but they’re ironclad.

Then there’s Ohio State.

Quarterback Julian Sayin has thrown for 3,065 yards, connecting with Jeremiah Smith for 942 yards and Carnell Tate for 793 yards in one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country. Bo Jackson adds a bit of a punch as well in the backfield with 952 rushing yards.

Defensively, the Buckeyes are even stingier than Indiana, allowing just 7.8 PPG, full stop, the best in the country. Caden Curry leads with 9.0 sacks, and Sonny Styles anchors the unit with 68 tackles.

Ohio State’s offense may not look as flashy as Indiana’s in the raw numbers, but don’t be fooled coming into tonight’s game — they average 37.0 PPG, and they’ve been on a tear — scoring 34+ points in 4 of their last 5 games, including a statement 27-9 win over Michigan.

Prediction — Who Wins the Big Ten Title? It Might Not Surprise You

Indiana has been the story of the season and for plenty of good reasons. From the cellar of the FBS to a perfect 12-0 run, Curt Cignetti has built something special. His experience in high-stakes games, which includes SEC title tilts at Alabama, gives the Hoosiers a steady hand in the biggest moment in program history.

But this feels like the end of the road for the Hoosiers because the Buckeyes are legit.

Ohio State has the talent edge in too many key areas. They’re deeper, faster on defense, and far more experienced in games of this magnitude. They haven’t played in the Big Ten title game in 4 years — and they’re hungrier than ever. With Julian Sayin operating efficiently and a defense that has allowed just one team to score 14+ points, the Buckeyes are built for this kind of matchup.

Indiana’s defense has been great, and we won’t deny them that honor, but they haven’t faced a QB like Sayin or a receiver duo like Smith and Tate. And while Mendoza has been impressive, he’s going up against a secondary that gives up just 121.3 passing yards per game, second-best nationally.

This game will be close early, which will make it worth watching, maybe even into the 3rd quarter. But eventually, Ohio State’s depth, defensive dominance, and championship pedigree will wear Indiana down.

• Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 17
• Best Bet: Ohio State -4

The spread has moved slightly in Indiana’s favor, but Ohio State -4 still offers some decent value. It’s worth taking it over the moneyline, but we wouldn’t go for it with much more than 4 points. Their defense can bottle up Hemby and force Mendoza into uncomfortable spots. If Ohio State can get up early, it could force Indiana into a pass-heavy approach, which plays right into the Buckeyes’ hands.

Another betting angle you might want to entertain is taking the under at 47.5. Both teams have elite defenses and slow the tempo with efficient drives. This could be a grind-it-out slugfest that stays under the number.