Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Picks

The Houston Astros are heading to Fenway Park tonight to take on the Boston Red Sox in an AL showdown. Both teams are in the playoff mix and bring momentum into this matchup, however, these 2 clubs do it with very different pitching situations. Houston is rolling with their hottest starter, while Boston is trying to piece together innings from a spot starter.

That sets up a fairly tricky spot for bettors who might be tempted to go chalk with the Astros, but we’re going to dig in and see where the value is with this game.

Game Details and Pitching Matchup

The first pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox are coming in smoking hot at 27-18 on the season. Houston comes in with their own decent 62-47 record and leads the AL West by a few games. Boston sits at 59-51, which is 5 games behind the Blue Jays in the East, but smack in the middle of the Wild Card race, so don’t count them out yet. Both teams are coming off solid series wins where Houston just took 2 of 3 from the Nationals, while Boston took the series from Minnesota, capped by a 13-1 blowout win.

The Astros will send Hunter Brown to the bump with his 9-5 record, 2.54 ERA, and 1.00 WHIP. Brown has been nothing short of fantastic, striking out 149 hitters in 124 innings and limiting home runs to just 12 allowed all year. His ability to attack the zone and get swings and misses gives Houston a clear advantage.

Boston counters with Cooper Criswell, who’s made only a couple of appearances this season, and during those starts, he’s pitched 10.2 innings and posted a shaky 5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. With just 5 Ks and 2 home runs allowed in limited action, he’s going to need a lot of help from the bullpen.

It’s clear as day that a mismatch on the mound is exactly why Houston opened as the betting favorite. The Astros are -133 on the moneyline, while Boston is a +110 home underdog. The run line has Houston -1.5 at +127, while Boston +1.5 sits at -154. The total is set at 8 runs, with the over priced at -112 and the under at -109. Those odds say a lot about Hunter Brown and how the bookmakers feel about this SP showdown.

Team Trends, Stats, and Edges

Looking a bit deeper, the Astros hold the edge in starting pitching and strikeouts. They lead all of MLB in strikeouts per game with 9.7 and rank in the top-10 in ERA, WHIP, and OBA. Their team ERA is 3.69, and their bullpen has been more consistent than Boston’s.

Offensively, it’s much closer. Houston ranks just 2nd in batting average at .257 and has clubbed 120 dingers. Jeremy Peña and his .322 AVG, and Jose Altuve with 57 RBIs and 18 HRs, lead the charge on the offense. Meanwhile, Boston is hitting .253 as a team with a little more power in their bats with 137 home runs. Wilyer Abreu has 20 HRs to his name, and Trevor Story, with his 65 RBIs, is a key middle-of-the-order threat, and Jarren Duran has been effective at the top with a .265 AVG.

Where things get the most interesting is with recent performance. Boston has won 4 of their last 5 games, including back-to-back wins over the Dodgers and a series win over the Twins. Their offense has exploded for 39 runs in those 5 games. Houston has won two straight as well, but lost the previous 5, including a 4 game sweep to Oakland. That shows they’re completely beatable even against weak teams.

Boston also has a strong betting trend working in their favor. The Red Sox are 9-3 against the spread when playing as underdogs after a rest day. That’s a situation they’re in here. Houston, on the other hand, is just 7-5 in similar rest-day moneyline spots. It’s hard to ignore the trends of these 2 teams despite who’s starting on the bump for each.

Prediction and Best Pick

Houston has the better pitcher on the mound and arguably the deeper lineup, by some metrics. But this is baseball at Fenway Park, where odd things tend to happen — especially when the home team is as hot as they are now. The Red Sox have been mashing the ball and just dropped 13 runs on the Twins like it was nothing. Their lineup is streaky, but right now it’s in one of those grooves.

Sure, Criswell won’t match Brown pitch-for-pitch, but if he can hold Houston to 3 or fewer runs through 4-5 solid innings, the Red Sox bullpen can give them a shot, and the bats will have time to do their damage.

• Prediction: Red Sox 4, Astros 3
• Best Bet: Red Sox +1.5 (-154)

With home-field advantage and an offense that’s come alive, Boston has real upset potential here, and that’s what we love about this game. That number might feel a little expensive to some, but the value is there considering Boston’s recent form and how well they’ve performed in this exact betting spot. You may want to check out the moneyline at +110 if you’re feeling bold, but the run line is definitely the safer play.