Giants vs Patriots Prediction — Can New York Spoil the Patriots’ Win Streak?

The New England Patriots haven’t lost a game in 2 months, and they’re the talk of the NFL because of it. At 10-2, they hold the best record in the NFL and are eyeing their 10th straight win heading into their bye week. But before that break, they’ll need to take care of the 2-10 New York Giants tonight for Monday Night Football. On paper, this looks like a mismatch, but the Giants have shown some glimmering signs of life lately and could turn this into a scrappy, ugly game.

Game Details and Odds

This game kicks off tonight at 7:15 PM ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough with New England as a 7-point favorite, and the total is set at 46.5. The Patriots are heavily favored on the moneyline at -360, while the Giants come in at a lowly +280. The spread opened at -7 and hasn’t moved at all, though the juice on the Giants has slightly ticked up, telling us that a few bettors might see a backdoor cover or trap game brewing.

The Patriots come in leading the AFC East, 4 games clear of Buffalo. The Giants sit at the bottom of the NFC East, having lost 6 straight and tied the NFL record for most losses in a season after leading by 10+ points. Still, they’ve been within striking distance in most of those losses, and with rookie QB Jaxson Dart getting back onto the field, they might have a bit more punch than their record suggests.

Patriots Are Rolling, But There’s a Catch

New England is simply winning games in every way possible. They’ve beaten teams with defense, as they did against Atlanta and Cincinnati. They’ve outscored teams in bit time shootouts, as they did against Tampa Bay 28-23. Their rookie QB Drake Maye has settled in and is playing like a true vet of the game as he’s throwing for 3,100+ yards with 21 TDs and just 6 picks. He’s leaned on veteran receiver Stefon Diggs, who leads the team with 679 receiving yards and has been reliable all over the field in tight moments.

But the Patriots will be without 2 of their best starters on the offensive line. LT Will Campbell and LG Jared Wilson are both out, which breaks up one of the most stable O-line units in the league. Backup tackle Vederian Lowe and guard Ben Brown will step in, and while both have starting experience, there’s no denying the timing of this shift could disrupt rhythm, especially with a young QB under center.

Defensively, though, the Patriots are undoubtedly elite. They’re top 5 in scoring defense, total yards allowed, and 2nd-best against the run. This defensive unit doesn’t give up big plays, forces mistakes, and tightens up in the red zone. LB Robert Spillane leads the team in tackles, and Harold Landry III, though questionable, has been a steady pass-rushing presence with 6.5 sacks.

Giants Keep Falling Short, But Not By Much

There’s no doubt that it’s been a frustrating season for New York. They’ve lost 5 games after leading by double digits, including last week’s 34-27 OT loss in Detroit, which is one of the best teams in the NFL. That defeat led to a defensive shakeup, with former coordinator Shane Bowen being replaced by OLB coach Charlie Bullen. The defense has been one of the worst in football, giving up nearly 28 PPG and ranking 30th in both total yards and rushing defense.

That’s a huge red flag against a Patriots team that ranks 3rd in time of possession and often leans on its running game to control the tempo of the game. New York has been gashed repeatedly on the ground, where they’re giving up 157 rushing YPG. If they can’t slow down Tyjae Henderson, who’s quietly put up 558 yards this season, it could be another long night, and their streak could keep on going.

Offensively, there are a few glimmers of hope. Jaxson Dart returns after clearing concussion protocol. Before his pause, he’s thrown for 1,400+ yards with 10 touchdowns and just 3 INTs in limited action. While that’s not really that explosive, he’s steady and has built a good rapport with wideout Wan’Dale Robinson, who leads the team with 794 receiving yards. The Giants’ offensive line has actually been a surprise strength nobody saw coming, allowing just a single sack in the past 2 weeks despite rotating quarterbacks. Their run game also ranks 9th in the league, which has helped keep them in games.

Still, the Giants struggle to finish the job, and their record shows that. They’ve been undone by poor tackling, late breakdowns, and a defense that simply can’t hold up when it matters the most. Brian Burns has done his part, racking up 13 sacks, but he can’t do it alone. With a new defensive playcaller stepping in on a short week, expecting major improvements would be wishful thinking.

Prediction and Best Bet

New England has won 9 in a row, they’ve covered 4 straight spreads, their defense is locked in, and even with a few O-line injuries, the offense is still better than anything the Giants have faced in the last few weeks. Drake Maye is playing with confidence and not slowing down one bit.

We’ll admit that the Giants are gritty, and they’ve kept games close, but close isn’t good enough when the defense is this bad, and the offense lacks consistent firepower. Unless they win the turnover battle and steal a possession or two, there’s no clear path to pulling off this win.

We feel that New England should slowly pull away in this one. We expect a bit of a sluggish start with the offensive line issues and a prime-time road opponent desperate to make something happen, but once the game settles, the Patriots’ balance on both sides of the ball should take over and put this one away convincingly.

• Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 17
• Best Bet: Patriots -7

The spread is fair, and while a few may fear the backdoor cover, the Patriots’ defense should be able to slam the door shut if they build even a little bit of a lead. New York’s inability to defend the run or get key stops in the fourth quarter has been its downfall all year. Don’t overthink this one and just lay the 7 points.