The NFL isn’t wasting time this year because Week 1 is undoubtedly starting with fireworks. The defending Super Bowl champs, the Philadelphia Eagles, open their title defense campaign at home against their NFC East rival, the Dallas Cowboys, in a TNF clash loaded with storylines and betting angles.
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Cowboys | +8.5 -115 | O 47.5 -110 | +320 |
| PHI Eagles | -8.5 -105 | U 47.5 -110 | -410 |
The game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Eagles enter this game as 8.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 47.5. On the moneyline, Philly is listed at a heavy -410, while Dallas backers, if you dare, can grab them at +320.
It’s not hard to see why bookmakers are leaning heavily toward the home team in this one. Philly just blasted the Chiefs 40-22 to win Super Bowl LIX, and they’re coming off a dominant 14-3 season. On top of that, some can make an argument that they’ve in fact improved in the offseason. Meanwhile, Dallas missed the playoffs last year at 7-10 and made headlines last week by trading away Micah Parsons, arguably their best player, after failing to reach a deal on his contract. The Cowboys are also debuting a new head coach in Brian Schottenheimer, a guy many thought wouldn’t land a coordinator job, let alone run an entire franchise.
All in all, this is already looking like trouble for the Cowboys.
This Eagles team is undoubtedly loaded on both sides of the ball. Start with Jalen Hurts, who quietly posted MVP-level production again last season and is showing no signs of slowing down. He completed 68.7% of his passes for 2,903 yards and 18 touchdowns, throwing only 5 interceptions across 15 games. On the ground, he added 630 rushing yards and 14 TDs as well. Hurts is not just productive, but he’s unequivocally reliable. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 8 games on his home turf.
And when it comes to Hurts’ favorite weapons, he has plenty, as the Eagles have no shortage. A.J. Brown racked up 1,079 yards and 7 TDs in just 13 games while averaging a whopping 16.1 yards per reception. DeVonta Smith keeps defenses honest as the WR2, and we don’t even have to go down the road of what Saquon Barkley brings to this attack, as he’s earned a spot as a household name. Philly’s offense is built to control the tempo and wear defenses down in the air and on the ground.
Philly is also a strong first-half team, where they’ve led at the half in 11 straight games. That tells you they come out fast and gameplan well. Teams simply cannot keep up.
On defense, even without any major offseason changes, the Eagles remain nothing less than stout. They were top 5 in most defensive metrics last season and showed no signs of slowing down, especially in their playoff run. Dallas is walking into one of the NFL’s toughest road environments and doing so with a QB who hasn’t looked himself in a while and few tools to work with.
The Cowboys are hoping for a clean slate, but this is not the starting point they need. Dak Prescott missed more than half the 2024 season with a hamstring injury. When he did play, he posted career lows in QBR and his TD-to-INT ratio. Even in his best game — a 352-yard outing against Pittsburgh in Week 5 — he tossed 2 picks and still had a sub-100 rating.
Prescott’s top option is still CeeDee Lamb, who was productive last year with 101 receptions and over 1,190 yards, but only reeled in 24 yards against the Eagles last year. Overall, he’s a solid weapon, but beyond that, this Dallas offense lacks consistent playmakers, and now they’ve got a questionable O-line protecting a less-mobile Prescott.
Let’s not forget the defense, either. This team was 31st in points allowed last season, and that was with Parsons, probably the best OLB in the game. With him off the roster, the pass rush is even weaker, the run defense takes a hit, and there’s little depth in the secondary. It’s hard to imagine a way this defense can keep Hurts and company under 30 points.
Discipline is another problem as the Cowboys ranked 3rd in penalties per game with 7.5 last season, and now they’ll face an Eagles offense that’s among the best in the league at drawing flags. To make matters worse, Dallas will be up against an Eagles power run game and a mobile QB — 2 of the biggest things they struggled to contain last year.
Bettors looking for trends should love this spot. The favorite has covered the spread in 8 straight matchups between these teams. The Eagles also covered easily in their last game vs. Dallas, a 34-6 rout.
Jalen Hurts has rushed for 29+ yards in 9 straight regular-season games, and he’s still one of the most reliable red zone threats in football. Expect another heavy workload near the goal line.
The Cowboys have some talent, and we don’t want to completely write them off, but they’re walking into a buzzsaw here. You’ve got a shaky QB coming off injury, a defense that gave up tons of points even with its best player, and a rookie HC making his debut in primetime — on the road — against the Super Bowl champs. Do we really have to dig too deep here?
The Eagles will control this game from the coin flip. The offense is simply too dynamic, the defense is undeniably too fast, and the crowd will be fired up. Unless Prescott channels his 2020 form, which seems highly unlikely, Dallas is going to struggle to keep up. This game might be over at the half.
Philly has covered in 8 straight against Dallas, and they’re too balanced to let up now. Forget the moneyline, definitely take the spread. If you’re looking for some more action with a player prop, consider Jalen Hurts to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns for +119, or 40+ yards with his legs at -116. Both have hit consistently and make sense in a game where Hurts will be the focal point.
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