Eagles vs Commanders Prediction – Can Philly Clinch the NFC East in Style?

The Philadelphia Eagles are in the driver’s seat heading into this Saturday afternoon showdown with the Washington Commanders as they’re sitting at 9-5 and just one win away from locking up the NFC East. Washington, on the other hand, is just trying to close out a disappointing 4-10 season on a respectable note and hopefully play spoiler to one of their foes.

With momentum clearly swinging in Philadelphia’s favor after a dominant 31-0 win over the Raiders, all signs point to the Eagles asserting their dominance yet again at Northwest Stadium.

Game Details & Betting Odds

This NFC East matchup kicks off at 4:00 PM EST with Philly listed as a 6.5-point favorite on the road. The total is set at 44.5. Philadelphia is -310 on the moneyline, while Washington sits at +250.

Philly enters this one with a 9-5 record and 8-6 ATS, while the Commanders are just 4-10 and 5-9 ATS. The Eagles are 5-9 to the under this year, and that trend has been strong lately as they’ve gone under the total in 6 straight games, but that’s what happens when a defense completely shuts out the other team from putting up points.

The Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams, including a 55-23 beatdown in the NFC Championship last year. But it’s worth noting Washington’s last win over Philly came in Week 16 of 2024, so revenge, bragging rights, and recent history are all in play here.

Offense, Injuries, and Trends

Philadelphia’s offense runs through Jalen Hurts, who’s thrown for 2,929 yards with 22 TDs and just 6 picks. Even with Saquon Barkley questionable, this team is still loaded with the firepower to move the chains. Though he’s not putting up numbers like he did last season, Barkley’s status is worth monitoring — he’s dealing with a stinger and hasn’t practiced early in the week. That said, Philly’s still averaging 22.9 PPG, just enough to get it done when paired with their elite defense. Most teams wouldn’t be able to pull off the wins with numbers like that, but their defense definitely helps.

DeVonta Smith leads the receiving corps with 889 yards and 3 TDs, while Hurts adds a bit of value on the ground and in red-zone situations. If Barkley is limited or out, it’ll be up to Hurts and backup RBs to carry the load. But Washington’s run defense ranks 28th in the league, where they have allowed 136.3 YPG, so the opportunity is there regardless of who’s in the backfield.

The Eagles’ offense does lag a bit in yardage per game as they average 327.2 total yards, good for 23rd in the NFL, but they’ve done well at protecting the ball, and that’s been key during their playoff push.

On the flip side, Washington is in quarterback limbo. Marcus Mariota is starting, and while his mobility gives them a better chance to mix things up, his numbers don’t really add much confidence. He has 10 TDs, 7 interceptions, and only 1,600 yards passing. That’s a terrible touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Commanders are putting up 20.8 PPG, but they’ve been inconsistent and are near the bottom of the league in efficiency.

Their leading rusher, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, has just 646 yards on 143 carries. They’re leaning on Deebo Samuel in the passing game as he has 604 yards and 5 TDs, but this is not an offense that scares anyone, let alone one of the best defenses in the league.

Injury-wise, Washington is pretty banged up, and that’s just going to add to their problems. Bobby Wagner is questionable with a knee injury, Laremy Tunsil is limited, and multiple defensive starters are on the report. That’s a major issue for a defense that’s already ranked 31st in yards allowed with 382.6 YPG and 26th in points allowed with 26.8 PPG.

Defense and Matchup Breakdown

This game just might be decided in the trenches — and that undoubtedly favors Philadelphia. The Eagles allow just 19.4 points per game, good for 6th in the NFL, and they also generate pressure consistently, with 35 team sacks and solid play from Moro Ojomo and Zach Baun, who leads the team with 108 tackles. It’s easy to see why they have one of the most dominant defenses in the league.

Washington’s defense, meanwhile, struggles to get stops in every area. They allow 246.3 passing yards per game, which is 29th in the NFL, and are 28th against the run. That’s a bad combo going up against an Eagles offense that can win through the air or grind you down with the run coming from multiple options.

The Commanders are also one of the most undisciplined teams in the league, ranking top 5 in penalty yards and bottom 5 in 3rd-down defense at a 38.3% conversion rate allowed.

In their last meeting, Philadelphia ran wild, and they’re likely to follow a similar script this time around. They’ll look to get up early, force Mariota to throw, and pin their ears back on defense.

Prediction — Eagles Dominate the Commanders, Again

Philadelphia is peaking at the right time, and they need it. After 3 straight losses, they bounced back with a blowout win, and now they get to face a struggling division rival with the division crown on the line. We expect them to stay sharp, avoid mistakes, and lean on their defense to control the tempo.

Even if Saquon Barkley is limited or out, which in a matchup like this wouldn’t surprise anyone if they rest him, the matchup favors the Eagles in every phase. Washington doesn’t have the playmakers to consistently win one-on-ones or the defensive structure to keep this close if things start to snowball.

• Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 13
• Best Bet: Eagles -6.5

The number isn’t small, but it’s undoubtedly fair. The Eagles have the better QB, a much better defense, and more motivation to come out on top. Washington’s recent win over the Giants shouldn’t be overvalued as the Commanders gave up 31 to Minnesota the week before and haven’t covered in 7 of their last 8 vs. NFC teams. If they were in the running for the playoffs, we would call them frauds, but instead, they’re just not a good team this year.

Philadelphia’s 6.5-point spread feels like a steal considering how lopsided this matchup looks on paper. They’ve scored first in 9 straight NFC road games, and with the division on the line, they’re not messing around here.