Dolphins vs Steelers Prediction — Monday Night Mayhem with Playoff Stakes

The Miami Dolphins, sitting at 6-7, and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7-6, meet tonight with both teams battling for playoff relevance, though one of them is nearly eliminated at this point. It’s been a season of streaks for both, with the Dolphins suddenly surging and the Steelers staying afloat through a few inconsistencies and big injuries. This game matters, and it’s going to be physical. 

Game Details and Betting Odds

Kickoff is set for 7:15 PM ET tonight, where Pittsburgh is a 3-point home favorite with the total sitting at 42.5.

The Steelers are currently 4-2 at home this season, and they’ve covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 games, while Miami is riding a 4-game win streak but is just 2-4 on the road. The over/under is a bit tricky as both offenses have flashed at times but aren’t exactly high-octane week to week.42.5 could be quite a task, or they could blow through it by the end of the 3rd.

Steelers Are Surviving in Typical Tomlin Fashion

Say what you want about Mike Tomlin, but he’s once again dragged a flawed team into playoff contention. The Steelers snapped out of a brutal stretch with a gritty win over the Ravens last week. That came right after fans were calling for heads to roll following a blowout loss to Buffalo, where they put up a single TD. Welcome to Pittsburgh football.

Aaron Rodgers found his groove (again) last week, throwing for 284 yards and 2 TDs. That included a monster 53-yard bomb to DK Metcalf, who finally broke out with 147 yards. This passing attack had been stuck in neutral for well over a month, but the return of veteran weapons like Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling helped stretch the field again and give Rodgers a few tools down the field.

Defensively, Pittsburgh’s still missing T.J. Watt, which hurts, and it shows. Watt leads the team with 7 sacks, but he’s sidelined. Without him on the front 7, the Steelers have struggled to generate consistent pressure. They’re giving up an insane 369.3 YPG, which is 28th in the NFL, and rank 27th against the pass.

Surprisingly, they do get takeaways, though. Minkah Fitzpatrick, acquired in a summer deal with Miami, has been excellent in the hybrid safety/slot role. His communication and ball skills have held a leaky secondary together.

Jaylen Warren has shown he can get the job done a few times, but averages just 54.3 rushing yards per game, which isn’t where they need him. This offense still leans heavily on Rodgers’ arm, and he’s been sacked 30 times behind a shaky line. That’s not a good look for a QB in his 40s.

Dolphins Are Rising from the Dead

After starting just 2-7 on the season, Miami’s gone on a 4-game heater, including wins over the Jets, Saints, Commanders, and Bills. The common thread is smart, efficient play from Tua Tagovailoa and a commitment to the run game.

Tagovailoa has thrown for 2,407 yards, 18 TDs, and 14 picks, which is not a perfect stat line, but steady enough. His favorite target, Jaylen Waddle, has 812 yards and 6 TDs. The offense is quietly balanced thanks to De’Von Achane, who has rushed for 1,126 yards and 7 TDs on just 193 carries. That’s a 5.8 YPC clip.

Miami ranks 8th in rushing and averages 126.5 YPG on the ground, and they’ll need to lean on that, especially with the Steelers giving up over 125 rushing yards per game, which is 27th in the NFL.

On defense, the Dolphins are mid-tier. They allow 334.5 total yards per game, good for 19th in the league, and are slightly better against the pass than the run. Their 31 sacks are respectable, but they’re not great at taking the ball away, as they only have 7 interceptions all year, which puts them 26th in the league.

They’ll be without key defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who was shipped to Pittsburgh in the Fitzpatrick deal, and that leaves them a bit vulnerable against big-bodied receivers like Metcalf.

Prediction — Who Wins on Monday Night?

This game really feels like it comes down to control — who establishes their identity and dictates tempo.

Miami wants to run the ball, manage the clock, and keep Tagovailoa clean, which is easier said than done. When they do that, they win, but when Tua has to play from behind, it gets ugly. The good news is that Pittsburgh’s defense is leaking, especially without Watt. Achane could be the difference-maker here.

Pittsburgh wants Rodgers to cook, but that’s risky as well because the offensive line is a problem, and while Rodgers is still accurate, he’s been under pressure far too often and doesn’t scramble as well as he used to. Miami doesn’t have an elite pass rush, but they don’t need to be flashy if they can just stay disciplined.

Momentum also matters for tonight’s MNF showdown. Miami has won 4 straight and just dropped 34 on the Jets last week. That might not be anything to write home about, but a win is a win when it comes to momentum. Pittsburgh has been a rollercoaster — losing to Buffalo and Chicago, then sneaking past Baltimore. It really makes you wonder which Pittsburgh team we’re going to see each week.

This game is tight, but the Dolphins are healthier, hotter, and just a little more balanced. The Rodgers revival last week was real, but one game doesn’t erase a month of stagnant offense.

• Prediction: Dolphins 24, Steelers 20
• Best Bet: Dolphins +3

Taking Miami with the points is the smarter play as they’ve covered in 3 straight and have the better rushing attack. Pittsburgh’s home field is undoubtedly a factor, but not enough to justify laying a full field goal.

For those hunting some value for their bet slip, take a look at the Dolphins’ moneyline at +142. You’re getting a team on a heater, going up against a banged-up defense and an offense still working out kinks.

This really is a prove-it game for both teams as one is surging, the other is surviving. We’re betting on the team that’s getting better every week.