Cubs vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

Despite only throwing for 32 innings, Chris Flexen hasn’t lost a game all season, however, he’s about to get tested in one of baseball’s toughest road environments — Yankee Stadium — when the Chicago Cubs open up a 3-game series with the New York Yankees tonight. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET, and both teams are jostling for playoff position as the second half of the season heats up.

Game Details and Starting Pitchers

The Yankees enter the series at 52-41 which is good enough for 2nd in the AL East, while the Cubs lead the NL Central at 55-38. Both teams are coming off mixed stretches, but overall, they are generally fairly decent. The Cubs have gone 6-4 over their last 10 with some solid pitching and timely hitting, while the Yankees have stumbled to a 4-6 mark, mainly due to a pitching staff that’s hit the skids because it definitely isn’t for lack of power.

On the bump for Chicago is Chris Flexen. He boasts a 5-0 record with an eye-popping 0.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through 32.2 innings. He’s allowed only 3 earned runs this season and struck out 17, keeping hitters completely off balance. His calm presence and efficiency on the mound have quietly turned him into one of the best stories in the Cubs rotation. The big question is, will he be able to maintain this against some of the hottest bats in the MLB?

The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodón, who enters with a 9-6 record and a 3.30 ERA. His WHIP of 1.03 and 127 strikeouts in 106 innings show he’s still dealing at times, but his last 2 starts have been somewhat shaky. Most recently, he gave up 6 earned runs and a pair of dingers in just 5 innings of work against the Mets last Saturday. That outing raised some alarms about his current form, but then again, it’s the Met’s we’re talking about.

Betting Odds and Market Overview

The Yankees are currently listed as -185 favorites on the moneyline, while the Cubs are priced at +153 as underdogs. That’s quite a split between these 2 teams considering they’re both at or near the top of their divisions.

The total is set at 9 runs, suggesting bookmakers expect some offense in this one. Despite the Yankees being a sizable favorite, this feels far more even when you look closer at recent trends and pitching form.

Why Chicago Can Pull the Upset

Let’s start with the obvious — Flexen’s numbers don’t lie.

He’s limiting runners on the bags, avoiding hard contact, and most importantly, winning games. In his last 21.2 innings, he’s allowed just 3 earned runs. He doesn’t overpower hitters like some of the other RHPs, but he throws strikes and mixes his pitches well. It’s hard to overlook that kind of consistency, even if it’s over a limited sample. If he continues this streak against the dominant Yankees tonight, we’ll be able to say he’s the real deal.

Offensively, the Cubs lead the National League in SLG at .448 and rank 1st in runs per game with 5.4. Seiya Suzuki is having a quietly massive year with 25 homers and 77 RBIs, while Michael Busch is hitting a decent .296 and slugging .553. Kyle Tucker adds even more punch to the lineup with 17 bombs and a .529 SLG. Chicago’s lineup may not have the big-market flash like the Yankees, but it gets the job done across the board and they’re showing they can do it with depth.

They’ve also been solid on the road, going 25-22 overall but an even better 32-19 in night games. That balance of production and consistency in hostile environments bodes well for this matchup — especially when they take the field in New York.

Yankees — Top OBP But Shaky Arms

The Yankees are no slouch at home. They hold a 29-17 record in the Bronx, and they still boast the league’s best OBP at .338. Cody Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez have been bright spots of late, and Aaron Judge continues to destroy baseballs, leading the league with 34 home runs.

But the issue right now is really their pitching. In the last 10 games, Yankees pitchers have posted a brutal 7.31 ERA while the team has been outscored by 7 runs. Even Rodón, who had been a steady #2 for most of the year, has been unreliable in July and he’ll look to shake that off with tonight’s game.

This isn’t a bullpen you can trust right now either, especially if the game is tight late. Their recent blowups against division opponents have shown vulnerability across the board.

Overall, if the Yankees are looking to get their pitching in order, doing it against the Cubs is a tall order.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game is shaping up as a tale of 2 pitching trends. Flexen is rolling, Rodón is reeling. It’s plain and simple. While the Yankees do have more power and play at home, the Cubs are more balanced, deeper 1-9, and riding a better streak overall.

If Chicago can get even 5 solid innings from Flexen and a lead into the 6th, their bullpen should be able to hold up just fine. With the Yankees pitching staff currently reeling, they’re not worth laying -185 on, especially against a starter with a sub-1.00 ERA.

• Cubs vs Yankees Prediction: Cubs 5, Yankees 3
• Best Bet: Chicago Cubs moneyline at +153

This might seem like a bit of a stretch, but tonight’s game is one we really think the sportsbooks are missing the mark on. With the Cubbies on the moneyline at +153, we’ll take that all day.