Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet: Will Chicago Retain Control in the Central?

The Chicago Cubs head to St. Louis to open a huge 4-game series against the Cardinals tonight. With the first pitch set for 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium, this one could have big implications in the NL Central race. The Cubs are clinging to first place, but both the Brewers and Cardinals are well within striking distance and if the Cards get hot this series, it could shake up the entire division.

Central Division Stakes and Starting Pitchers

The Cubs come in at 46-31, leading the division by 3.5 games over the Brewers and just 4.5 ahead of the Cardinals. Despite holding the top spot, Chicago has stumbled recently, going just 5-5 over its last 10. They’re fresh off a lopsided 14-6 loss to Seattle and have given up 44 runs over their last 5 games. Their pitching staff has been exposed, and Monday’s starter, Ben Brown, hasn’t really helped matters.

Brown comes into this matchup with a 4-5 record, a bloated 5.57 ERA, and a dismal 1.48 WHIP. He’s given up 9 HRs in 74.1 innings and has walked 25 batters. His 85 strikeouts show he can definitely miss some bats, but his lack of control often gets him into trouble. Against a team like St. Louis that knows how to take pitches, that’s not a good combination for the Cubbies.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been heating up. They’re 6-4 in their last 10, and while they dropped their most recent game to Cincinnati, they had won 4 straight before that. Matthew Liberatore will take the mound with a 4-6 record, but his 4.08 ERA and 1.16 WHIP are not stellar, but still much more solid than Brown’s numbers. He pitched 79.1 innings with 66 Ks and just 11 dingers allowed. His command has been far better and he’s kept the Cardinals in games. He still doesn’t go too deep into the games as he hovers right around 70-80 pitches a game, but when he’s on the bump, he holds his own.

St. Louis is 24-15 at home and plays decent ball at Busch Stadium. This will be the first meeting of the season between these 2 foes, and the outcome of this series very easily could swing momentum for either side in the NL Central.

Odds and Matchup Insights

Bookmakers have this one as a virtual toss-up. The Cubs are slight -111 favorites on the moneyline, while the Cardinals are at -109. The run line has the Cubs at +143 to cover -1.5, while the Cardinals are at -175 to stay within 1.5 runs. The total for the game is set at 9 runs, with the over listed at -105 and the under at -116.

Given how both teams have been scoring — and also giving up — runs, that number makes sense to us. Busch Stadium averages 8.8 total runs per game this season, and the over has hit in 21 of 39 games there. 

The Cubs’ big bats hit more homers with 1.5 per game vs. the Cardinals’ 0.9 and score slightly more runs per game, but their pitching staff is simply falling apart and giving up tons of runs. Their ERA has ballooned to 5.04 over the last 10 games, and Brown has done little to stop the bleeding.

St. Louis might not have the same power, but they’re definitely more disciplined at the plate. They rank 4th in the league in OBP at .327 and draw more walks than almost anyone in the league. Over the last 10 games, their .235 AVG has come with timely hits and solid bullpen work, holding opponents to a 3.60 ERA.

Prediction and Analysis

The key matchup for tonight’s showdown is Ben Brown’s shaky command against a patient and experienced Cardinals lineup. St. Louis doesn’t necessarily need to hit for power to do damage. If Brown struggles early with walks and gets behind in counts, the Cardinals could rack up runs by playing small ball and doing it without stringing together big hits.

Matthew Liberatore isn’t an ace, but he’s been steady and can get the job done. He keeps the ball in the yard better than Brown and limits hard contact, something the Cubs are known for. That’s going to be crucial against a Cubs team that relies heavily on the long ball to win. Chicago is 25-7 when hitting 2+ home runs. When the power isn’t there, they simply don’t win.

Alec Burleson has been one of the Cardinals’ most reliable bats, hitting .308 AVG with 8 homers and 30 RBIs. Ivan Herrera has quietly been producing as well, hitting .350 over his last 10 games. The Cubs will need someone beyond Pete Crow-Armstrong, who leads the team with 21 home runs, to step up if they want to compete in this one.

Unfortunately for Chicago, their recent form highlights the fact that they are regressing a bit. They’ve allowed more runs than they’ve scored over the last ten, while the Cardinals have done the exact opposite. Combine that with the pitching advantage for St. Louis and their strong record at home, and the value clearly leans to the Redbirds.

• Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals 6, Cubs 4
• Best Bet: Cardinals moneyline at -110

The Cardinals’ moneyline at -110 is the best value on the board. Neither of the pitching staffs are dominant so we’re staying away from the run line on this game. However, given the Cubs’ recent pitching issues and Brown’s inconsistency, St. Louis is in a great spot to take the opener at home and chip away at Chicago’s lead in the division.

As for the over/under, 9 runs might seem like a tall order, but these 2 teams could easily clear that. The pitching is mediocre at best and the bats have the potential to light up the scoreboard. We’d recommend taking the over for tonight’s game.