Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Pick for NL Central Clash

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers come into tonight’s matchup deadlocked at 62-43, sharing the top spot in the NL Central. That makes this opener of a 3-game set at American Family Field one of the most meaningful and intriguing matchups of the season so far. Despite the Cubs taking the first series back in May 2 games to 1, this series could go either direction.

The first pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET, and both teams are coming off series wins heading into this pivotal clash.

Game Details — Boyd vs Misiorowski in the Spotlight

Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Cubs, and he’s bringing the kind of stability and dominance that any contender craves.

Boyd has been nothing less than excellent in 2025 as he’s posting an 11-3 record with a 2.20 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across 118.2 innings. It’s no surprise he was on the NL All-Star Team when he’s pushing numbers like that. He’s struck out 108 while limiting opponents to just 24 walks and 10 home runs — a profile that fits perfectly against a Brewers offense that doesn’t rely on slugging to win games but grinds them out with small ball and depth.

Coming in from the other dugout, Jacob Misiorowski toes the rubber for Milwaukee. Although he has just 29.1 innings under his belt this season, he’s made them count. With a 4-1 record, 2.45 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP, Misiorowski has already impressed us with both command and strikeout ability, striking out 40 batters while walking only 12. The biggest concern for him is his workload. He’s rarely pitched deep into games, which could tax Milwaukee’s bullpen if things get tight late. While they generally keep his pitches down in the 60-80 range, he has thrown up to 91 against the Dodgers earlier this month while allowing just a single run. So, he can go deep if he’s on fire.

Odds and Betting Lines

Chicago is listed as a -115 favorite on the moneyline, while the Brewers are the slight underdogs at -105. On the run line, the Cubs are +148 to cover -1.5 runs, and Milwaukee is -181 to keep it within a run. The over/under for total runs is set at 8, with the over at -106 and the under slightly favored at -114.

These tight odds tell us just how evenly matched these teams are, and with 1st place in the NL Central on the line, the margin for error is undoubtedly slim. These are both solid teams fighting not just for their division, but the #1 seed in the National League altogether.

Breaking Down the Matchup — Stats, Trends, and Momentum

Offensively, the Cubs hold the upper hand in this Monday night showdown. They lead the NL in runs per game with 5.3 and sit 3rd in both batting average at .255 and home runs per game at 1.5. Pete Crow-Armstrong has shown the world that he is a legit middle-of-the-order force, belting 27 dingers and driving in 76 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki leads the team with 81 RBI despite a modest .251 AVG.

Matt Shaw has also caught fire as of late, going 12-for-28 with 4 dingers and 10 RBI in his last 10 games, adding even more depth to an already dangerous Cubs lineup that’s producing up and down the order.

Milwaukee counters with a less explosive but still capable offense. They rank 11th in batting average at .250 and 7th in runs per game with 4.7, but they’re just 25th in home runs per game at 0.9. Christian Yelich has 19 long balls and 66 RBI, and Jackson Chourio leads the team with 67 RBI while hitting a .276 AVG. The Brewers rely on consistent contact and timely hits more than power, and it seems to be working for them.

On the mound, Milwaukee’s pitching edge is clear on paper as they rank 4th in ERA with a 3.58 compared to the Cubs’ 3.90. But recent trends complicate that picture a bit. The Cubs have gotten strong performances from Boyd and are 6-4 in their last 10, while Milwaukee is 7-3 but has benefitted from facing a weak Miami squad at home.

One thing we’re really going to watch is how both teams handle the first few innings. Milwaukee has led after 3 innings in each of its last 7 games as underdogs against NL Central teams.  It just goes to show they try to get out ahead early, and that kind of early-game discipline and pitching efficiency could prove huge against a hot Cubs team.

But Boyd is not Miami’s rotation. He’s held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in 9 straight outings and gives Chicago a huge edge if he pitches to form.

Prediction — Cubs Take Control of the Division

This one is going to be close, but the Cubs are better suited for this spot. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, including a sweep of the White Sox, and enter with their lineup clicking. Boyd’s consistency and ability to work deep into games give them the upper hand against a Brewers team that may need to turn to its bullpen early.

The Brewers have been undeniably resilient as underdogs, and their home record of 34-19 can’t be ignored. But unless Misiorowski can stretch into the 6th inning, Milwaukee’s staff will be stretched against a Cubs offense that ranks among the league’s best in scoring.

• Cubs vs Brewers Prediction: Cubs 4, Brewers 2
• Best Bet: Cubs on the moneyline at -115

The value is on Boyd and the more balanced lineup. The Cubs are built to win this kind of game, and we expect the Cubs to grind out a road win and take sole possession of first place in the division.

If you’re not content with just betting on the game and want to check out some MLB player props, we would go with Pete Crow-Armstrong OVER 1.5 total bases. He’s red-hot, has hit this 8 of his last 9 games, and the Brewers’ starter has yet to face a lineup this deep. You can expect PCA to do damage.