Cowboys vs Lions Prediction on TNF — Offenses Collide as Playoff Stakes Rise

The Dallas Cowboys, who are sitting at 6-5-1, and the Detroit Lions, 7-5, meet tonight in a TNF matchup that could have serious playoff consequences in the NFC. Both teams are chasing their respective division leaders and are barely outside of postseason spots, but the loser of this game could find themselves in a much bigger hole with only a few weeks left in the regular season.

The Lions are trying to bounce back after another frustrating loss, while the Cowboys come in with some confidence as they’re riding a 3-game win streak. It’s a clash of 2 very explosive offenses, 2 quarterbacks playing well, and 2 teams that desperately need this win.

Game Info and Odds

Kickoff is set for 7:15 PM EST from Ford Field in Detroit. The Lions opened up the odds as 3.5-point favorites, and the line currently sits at Detroit -3. That’s not really that surprising given their 4-2 home record and tons of offensive firepower. The over/under is posted at 54.5, which is one of the highest totals on the board this week, which only goes to show that the bookmakers are expecting plenty of points in this one.

Detroit is favored on the moneyline at -166, while Dallas comes in as the dogs at +140. It’s a near pick-em in terms of how these teams match up, but the bookmakers are giving the Lions a slight edge at home.

Where These Teams Stand Right Now

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are getting hot at the right time. After starting the season below .500, they’ve won 3 straight to move into playoff contention and are now just behind the Eagles in the NFC East. Their recent wins over Kansas City and Philadelphia show they’re not just beating up on bad teams, either, instead, they’re hanging with some of the best. QB Dak Prescott is playing sharp, with 3,261 passing yards and 25 TDs to just eight picks. George Pickens has become his favorite target, racking up 1,100+ receiving yards and finding the end zone 8 times. The run game is also getting into high gear behind Javonte Williams, who has 955 rushing yards and 8 TDs.

Detroit, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction over the last few games. After a solid 5-2 start, they’ve dropped 3 of their last 5 and now trail both Chicago and Green Bay in the NFC North. Their most recent loss to Green Bay was especially tough, as the defense gave up a staggering 31 points and failed to generate pressure on Jordan Love. But let’s be honest — the Lions are still a tough team at home and have not lost 2 straight games on their home turf in over 3 seasons. Quarterback Jared Goff has 3,025 passing yards and the same number of touchdowns as Prescott, with only 5 INTs to his name. RB Jahmyr Gibbs has passed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground and added 10 touchdowns, making him one of the most dynamic backs in the league. If Amon-Ra St. Brown is active, this passing game gets a fairly decent lift as well. He’s questionable with an ankle injury, but his 9 touchdowns on the year speak to how much he means to this offense.

Offensive Fireworks Incoming

Both teams come into this game with some of the best offenses in the league. Dallas is averaging 29.3 PPG, 2nd in the NFL. Detroit is right behind them at 29.2, which ranks 4th. With that, it’s easy to see why the bookmakers have this total so high. In terms of total yardage, the Cowboys rank 1st with 400+ YPG, while the Lions are 3rd. It’s not just big plays, either. Both teams rank in the top 5 in 3rd-down conversion rate, which means they know how to sustain drives.

The difference seems to really lie in defense. Detroit gives up 22.8 PPG, which ranks in the middle of the pack, while Dallas is allowing 28.5, one of the worst in the league. The Cowboys give up 376+ YPG and rank 30th in passing defense. That’s a bad matchup against Goff and Gibbs, especially if St. Brown is cleared to play. The Lions also rank much better in sacks, interceptions, and rushing defense. Aidan Hutchinson is having a monster season with 8.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles, and even though he didn’t record a sack last week, he’s been a constant threat off the edge, and you can bet that he’ll be itching to put Prescott on the ground.

Dallas still hasn’t gotten Trevon Diggs back from his knee injury, and that’s a problem. Without their top corner, the Cowboys are vulnerable to chunk passing plays, and their secondary continues to be one of the least opportunistic in the league. They have only 5 interceptions all season, which ranks near the bottom. That lack of playmaking could cost them dearly against a Lions team that thrives on explosive plays.

Prediction and Best Bet

This game should be closer than many fans would like to see, but the edge goes to Detroit. The Lions have more balance on both sides of the ball, a stronger defense, and they’re playing at home, where they’ve been consistently tough. Even though Dallas is riding a decent win streak, 2 of those 3 of those victories came at home, and the lone road win was against the terrible Raiders. On the road, they’ve allowed 33, 44, and 27 points in their last 3 away games. That’s not going to cut it against a Detroit team that knows how to finish drives and control the pace, especially at Ford Field.

Gibbs will most likely be the difference maker. With Dallas struggling against the run and having issues in their secondary, Detroit can dictate tempo on the ground and through short passes. If St. Brown plays, which only widens the margin even more. Goff has shown he can protect the football, and Detroit’s offense has the tools to wear down Dallas’ defense over a full 4 quarters. Add in the Lions’ streak of never losing 2 straight games under Dan Campbell, and there’s good reason to believe they’ll bounce back tonight.

We have to admit that the Cowboys have had a great run lately, but this feels like a spot where their defensive flaws catch up with them. Sure, they’ll put up points, but not enough to outlast a Lions team playing with urgency and falling further back in the contentious NFC North.

• Prediction: Lions 34, Cowboys 27
• Best Bet: Lions -3

With home field, a better defense, and a chance to make a statement in the NFC, Detroit’s on the right side. The Cowboys have struggled to stop the run and haven’t shown they can get stops when it matters. Gibbs is set up for a big game, and if St. Brown is active, we expect Detroit to stretch the field early and often.