Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction – Deck the Field with Defensive Woes

The Cowboys and Commanders will square off for the first of 3 Christmas Day games, but this game is anything but a gift to fans of good football. Both teams are already out of the playoff race, and both are closing out ugly seasons for very different reasons. The Cowboys have insane offensive talent, but a defense that’s leaked points all year and couldn’t hold up their end of the deal. The Commanders, meanwhile, are falling apart physically, and with their top 2 QBs sidelined, they’re turning to journeyman Josh Johnson to take the snaps. This is a showdown where one team still has firepower — and the other is just trying to get to the finish line in one piece.

Game Details, QB Situation, and Key Injuries

Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM on Christmas Day, and for Washington, the only thing festive about this matchup is that the season is nearly over. The Commanders come in at dismal 4-11 with a 2-5 home record. Their QB room has turned into a mash unit. Jayden Daniels, who showed some serious promise early in the season, hasn’t played much since midseason. Backup Marcus Mariota hurt his throwing hand and quad in last week’s loss to the Eagles, and now it’s likely Josh Johnson will get the start. Drafted in 2008, he’s a 17-year veteran who hasn’t thrown a pass that mattered in years. Of course, he gets a few snaps each season, and throughout his career, it’s been nearly a dozen teams, but that’s the most he generally sees. He’s far from a household name. Then, on top of that, Washington just signed Jeff Driskel off the Cardinals’ practice squad to back him up.

While that sounds like a nightmare scenario, that’s just the start of Washington’s issues. Sam Cosmi, arguably their best offensive lineman, was placed on IR after a concussion. Rookie returner Jaylin Lane was also ruled out for the year after a lower leg injury. Washington claimed Jamal Agnew, a Pro Bowl returner, to fill the gap, but that’s a small silver lining on an otherwise bleak injury report. Defensively, they’ve also lost Eddie Goldman and had to bring in Shy Tuttle to shore up the interior. If you’re a Commander’s fan, this definitely is not your season.

The Cowboys aren’t perfect either and are already out of the playoff race. They’ve lost 3 straight and dropped below .500 to 6-8-1. But they’re at least healthy on offense. Dak Prescott has had a great season as he’s thrown for 4,100+ yards and 28 TDs. George Pickens is having a breakout season with 1,342 yards and 9 TDs of his own, and Javonte Williams, while questionable, has crossed the 1,100-yard mark with 10 TDs on the ground. Dallas can still move the ball — and that alone might be enough this week. If it weren’t for the Commander’s injuries, however, nobody is confident the Dallas defense could stop them.

Odds, Betting Angles, and Stats That Matter

Dallas comes into this game as a 6.5-point road favorite with a game total of 50.5. The Cowboys have covered the spread in 7 of their 15 games, but have been fairly shaky on the road all year. Washington, on the other hand, is just 5-10 ATS and hasn’t covered once in 3 tries as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

If you weren’t able to tell from the total, this game features 2 of the worst defenses in the league. The Cowboys rank 31st in points allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed per game. The Commanders aren’t far behind as they rank 26th in scoring defense and 26th against the pass. The difference is that Dallas at least brings one of the best offenses in the league into the mix. The Cowboys average 28.3 PPG, which is good for 5th in the NFL and leads the league in passing yards per game at 285.7.

Washington scores just 20.6 points per game and ranks 26th in passing. Even if Johnson can connect with Deebo Samuel, who leads the team with 639 receiving yards and 5 TDs, the odds of them matching Dallas score for score aren’t all that great. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has done his best to carry the ground game with 671 yards and 6 touchdowns, but Washington trails early and often, making their run game more of a footnote than anything.

Time of possession definitely favors Dallas, and so does 3rd down efficiency. The Cowboys convert at 42% of the time, which places them 9th in the NFL, while Washington is at 37.2%, good for 25th. The Commanders’ defense also gives up chunk plays both on the ground and through the air. That’s a problem when trying to contain Prescott and company for four quarters.

Why Dallas Should Roll

Despite their 3-game skid, the Cowboys still have a dangerous offense that can expose this depleted Washington defense. Pickens will always continue to stretch the field, and Prescott, even with 10 picks, is playing some of his most efficient football. If Williams suits up, they’ll undoubtedly be more balanced, but if he doesn’t, Dallas still has enough through the air to get it done.

Washington simply doesn’t have enough healthy bodies to keep up with any NFL team. With Josh Johnson under center, their offense shrinks. Even if the veteran manages a few early completions, it’s hard to see how this team keeps up if they fall behind by more than a touchdown. Then you add in a defense that’s ranked bottom 6 in nearly every meaningful defensive category, and it becomes a matter of time before Dallas pulls away.

The Cowboys’ recent struggles are real, and we can’t overlook those, but context matters. They lost to the Chargers, Lions, and Vikings — teams with semi-functioning offenses. Washington isn’t in that class right now. Unless Johnson has the best game of his life and pulls off a Christmas miracle, Dallas should be in control from at least the 2nd quarter on.

• Prediction: Cowboys 31, Commanders 17
• Best Bet: Cowboys -6.5

Washington is in survival mode and simply wants the season to end so they can lick their wounds. Dallas still has pride and offensive firepower to take a few teams to the cleaners. That alone should cover the 6.5 points. The Cowboys haven’t been good on the road, but this matchup is less about location and more about health and talent. Dallas has both, and Washington doesn’t. Back the Cowboys to bounce back with a convincing win for the first NFL game this Christmas.