College Football Best Bets: 3 Top Picks for Saturday, September 20

Week 3 is in the books as we turn the page to a jam-packed Week 4. Now that we’re heading into Week 4, the intensity ramps up as conference play gets underway, and this week brings us three top 25 matchups.

This week offers several intriguing matchups where lines look tight, but we have found some angles. Oklahoma welcomes back Jackson Arnold as John Mateer, and the Sooners look to stamp their footing in the SEC. Nebraska takes on Michigan in a Big Ten showdown with upset potential, and Utah battles Texas Tech in a game that could shape the Big 12 race.

Let’s break each of these down and see where the betting value lies.

Oklahoma −4.5 (-130) vs Auburn

Oklahoma has looked sharp to open the season, starting 3-0 and playing with the kind of balance that could take them to the playoffs. Their offense has been efficient behind quarterback John Mateer, who has shown big time play-making ability both throwing and running. Oklahoma’s offensive line has been steady but will need to take a step-up vs this Auburn defensive front. The Sooners hold the advantage on the defensive end and Auburn has yet to see a defense this stout.

Auburn, who is also undefeated, hasn’t been tested against teams like Michigan yet. They impressed in week 1 over Baylor who struggled on the defensive end. Auburn has shown flashes of explosive playmaking, especially on the perimeter with their wide receivers, but questions remain about whether their offense can do enough against a defense like this. And can Auburn’s defense handle a high-tempo attack like Oklahoma’s, who likes to air it out.

Auburn’s defensive line has talent and could cause issues if it gets consistent pressure, but if Mateer is given time to operate, Oklahoma should find success getting the ball into their territory. This is Auburn’s first real road test, in what should be a very amped up and hostile crowd.

The biggest discrepancy I saw with the stats was the 3 INT for Mateer to 0 for Arnold. Tie that to the competition played, but Mateer has thrown 1 INT in each game, one against Temple and one against Illinois State, it seems a foregone conclusion Auburn will turn him over. My model has Oklahoma -6.5, but my final thoughts, whoever wins the turnover battle covers their line in this one.

Nebraska +3 (-130) vs Michigan

A classic Big Ten matchup and I am here for it! It is year three of Matt Rhule and Nebraska has come out of the gates strong at 3-0, boosted by a current top 10 passing attack behind Dylan Raiola. They won an impressive week 1 game vs a tough Cincinnati squad, then proceeded to dismantle their next two opponents.

The Huskers’ defense, particularly their secondary, has been stout, with a B+ grade behind their top 4 backs, all seniors. They have been excellent at limiting explosive plays and forcing opponents to sustain long drives. The challenge for Nebraska is whether they can hold up at the line of scrimmage against a Michigan team that prides itself on physicality. They did struggle containing the run vs Cincy, which should be a massive talking point this week in the locker room.

Michigan, also undefeated and brings a roster with more depth and experience, especially on the defensive side of things. CFBdepth.com has Michigan rated with the 3rd best defense. The Wolverines excel at controlling tempo, leaning on their offensive front to wear teams down. Their biggest advantage here is likely in the trenches, but Lincoln is one of the toughest places to play in the Big Ten.

The key for Nebraska will be protecting Raiola, avoiding turnovers, and winning the field position battle. Seeing how Cincy had success on the ground I believe Michigan will do the same. This will be a close game, and I expect it to be within 3 points either way. If Nebraska can pull off the outright, I don’t see it by more than 2 or 3. If they can keep the game within one possession into the fourth quarter, they’ll have every chance to pull the upset.

Utah ML (-145) vs Texas Tech

Utah was one of my favorite teams coming into the 2025 season, we placed a future on them, and they haven’t let us down yet! I’ve always been a strong Kyle Whittingham backer, and he looks to have retooled Utah to make a run at the Big 12 title.

Utah’s offense has been clicking with quarterback Devon Dampier running the show, and their offensive line has created balance between the run and pass. Dampier has looked special completing 64/88 passes for 631 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs. The main reason Utah has been so solid on offense is their offensive line. CFBdepth.com has their O-line rated #4 in the country, 7th in pass blocking and 6th in run blocking.

Utah’s defense is also one to be reckoned with. They’ve held all three opponents under 10 points to start the season, and it all starts with pressure from the defensive line. Sophomore John Henry Daley has been a monster, adding 7 tackles, 6 hurries, 5 sacks, and 11 stops through 3 games and he could make it a long day for Behren Morton and this Red Raiders passing attack.

Texas Tech has been one of the more exciting teams to watch early this season. Their passing game has been explosive, stretching defenses vertically as Morton has just shy of 1,000 passing yards through three games. The question is whether they can sustain that pace against a Utah defense built to limit big plays, especially in altitude in Utah. Take the home team with the better defense, and offense I trust to protect the ball.