College Football Preview: 3 Best Bets for Saturday, November 15

Coming off an abysmal 0-2 College Football Week 11 article, we are looking to get back in the profit column. With just three games left on most teams’ schedules, we are officially in the final stretch of the 2025 season.

Games loom large this week for numerous two-loss teams looking to make the college football playoffs. With gigantic top 25 matchups between Texas/Georgia, USC/Iowa, and Oklahoma/Alabama, College Football fans are in for a jam-packed weekend!

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#9 Notre Dame –10 (-132, ProphetX) vs #22 Pittsburgh

Notre Dame comes into this week reeling off seven straight wins, covering 10 points in all seven, while pushing at home vs #17 USC. On the road during this stretch Notre Dame has won by 15 at Boston College and 43 at Arkansas. With Georgia Tech and Miami Florida on deck for Pittsburgh, which are in conference games, their head coach Pat Narduzzi already stated, “They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two weeks.”

Now Notre Dame is hitting their stride, looking healthy and determined to make it back to the College Football playoffs, you would be a fool to think they won’t score every opportunity they get here. Pittsburgh won’t be a push over, but this game clearly doesn’t mean as much to Pittsburgh as it does Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has a big advantage converting 3rd downs on offense at a 47% rate compared to 37% for Pitt. Notre Dame has also scored almost double the number of touchdowns 30-18 on the season while playing a much harder schedule. Notre Dame’s 26th ranked rushing attack will be tested against one of the best rush defenses in the country allowing the 3rd least per game at 80.

An area the Irish can exploit is the pass game as Pitt ranks 96th in passing yards, allowing over 237 per game. The Irish offense ironically also ranks 26th in passing yards per game, which displays Notre Dame’s balanced offensive attack. If the run isn’t working, I trust CJ Carr to make the right plays to move the chains. Notre Dame’s defense should find and keep pressure on this Panthers offense all game, wearing them down over four quarters.

#17 USC –5.5 (-120, Fanatics) vs #21 Iowa

USC has been a bit up and down this season covering this 5.5 spread, but at home, they have been perfect. Covering all five home games with winning margins of 60, 39, 14, 18, and 21, their offense has put up points, and their defense has made big stops. While Iowa has played the slightly tougher schedule according to Sagarin, they are coming off a brutal loss, where they gave everything to win that game.

Now they have to travel multiple time zones and play in USC’s night environments, with their playoff hopes still on the line, tough ask. Iowa has covered this line 100% this season, but they have not traveled and faced this efficient offense that also has some defense behind it.

USC ranks 7th in the country with almost 40 points per game, 11th in the country in red zone efficiency, 5th in converting 3rd down conversions. They rank 1st in yards per play at 7.5 and while I expect that to drop vs Iowa, I still expect to see explosive plays. USC’s offense is top 20 in both least sacks and QB hits allowed, which will be key here.

Iowa’s offense is much improved compared to prior seasons averaging almost 30 per game with a 90%+ red zone efficiency, having said that, USC ranks 3rd in the country on defense allowing just 67% red zone efficiency, while also allowing just 36% 3rd down completion. USC ranks 10th in the country in tackles for loss, 17th in sacks, I expect a long night for this Iowa offense.

Texas vs. Georgia — Under 51 (-125, Fanatics)

This is the biggest game of the weekend, and when these two get together, we tend to see defenses stand out. The last two meetings saw 45 and 41 points and again this season, both teams rank inside the top-25 in scoring allowed and defensive red zone efficiency. Both also rank inside the top-30 in yards per play allowed.

Texas has the clear advantage as one of the best teams in the country getting to the quarterback, 1st in sacks, 4th in QB hits, and 6th in tackles for loss, while Georgia ranks outside the top 100 in all three categories. At home, or hosting neutral sites, Georgia has put defense first, staying under 51 in four of their last five games hosting this season. 44 vs Florida, 49 vs Kentucky, 45 vs Alabama, and 34 vs Austin Peay.

We have seen Texas offense pick up stride in recent weeks but that was against an over-ranked Vanderbilt and a softer Mississippi State defense, now Manning faces another tough task. Texas ranks just 66th on the season converting just 40% of their 3rd downs, ranking 106th in first downs per game. If Georgia can slow the Texas offense and keep these trends going, we can see another low scoring 24-21 type of game.