The Week 18 AFC North matchup brings the struggling Cleveland Browns to Baltimore to face a dominant Ravens squad eyeing the division title — yet again. The Ravens, currently 11-5, are heavy favorites heading into the Saturday showdown as they host the flailing 3-13 Browns in a game with playoff implications for Baltimore.
The Browns, on the other hand, will look to close out a difficult season on a respectable note and potentially spoil the Raven’s hopes for the division.
The Ravens are a massive 17.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 41.5. That tells us that the bookmakers are thinking this will be a defense-heavy game with Ravens crushing it on the field.
Baltimore has been dominant since their bye week. They’ve been going 3-0 straight up and against the spread, while Cleveland has faltered with a 0-5 record in their last 5 games. It seems they might be shooting for a good draft pick.
CLE Browns | BAL Ravens | |
---|---|---|
2-6 | Home | 5-2 |
1-7 | Road | 6-3 |
4-12 | ATS | 9-6-1 |
6-10 | O/U | 12-4 |
L5 | Streak | W3 |
15.5 | Avg. Points For | 30.2 |
25.0 | Avg. Points Against | 21.9 |
5.0 | Avg. Winning Margin | 14.0 |
12.8 | Avg. Losing Margin | 4.4 |
The Ravens’ offense is among the best in NFL history. They’re averaging 6.87 yards per play this season which is simply mind-boggling. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have combined for an NFL record 2,635 rushing yards as the premier QB-RB duo in the league.
On the other hand, Cleveland has been unable to muster any offensive consistency. They’ve scored 7 or fewer points in 3 straight games and are struggling to put anything together. This game looks more and more lopsided.
The Browns are expected to start Bailey Zappe at QB, which could make this game even more interesting. While Zappe has shown flashes in the limited action he has faced, against a Ravens defense that’s hitting its stride could be simply overwhelming.
Baltimore’s ability to control the ground game and dominate defensively makes this an uphill battle for Cleveland no matter how you cut it.
We know this game will go one way — easily toward the Ravens. However, there are some sharp props you might want to check out when loading up your bet slip.
Despite having some of the best legs in the NFL, Jackson averages a whopping 2.4 passing touchdowns per game and faces a Browns defense that has struggled to stop the pass. As a candidate for MVP, we’ll probably see both on showcase this Saturday. With Denzel Ward out, we expect Jackson to find his targets with no problems at all, making this bet a strong play.
The rookie receiver has been a consistent playmaker. He’s averaging 66.4 receiving yards per game and not slowing down one bit. Against a very weakened Cleveland secondary, Flowers could thrive as Jackson’s top target for the day.
Cleveland’s Jerome Ford will face a Ravens defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. With the Browns likely playing from behind for most — if not all of the game, we expect him to have limited opportunities to make an impact.
Baltimore has every reason to dominate this game. In fact, we don’t think Cleveland even stands a chance. Their offense is historically good, and they’re motivated to clinch the AFC North in front of their home crowd. There’s just no way they let that slide. Cleveland’s revolving door at QB and offensive struggles make it hard to envision them even competing in this game.
We’re going to take the Ravens at -17.5. While it’s a huge number, Baltimore covered a similar spread as 16.5-point favorites in Week 15 against the Giants when they won 35-14. You’ll probably see a similar result here.
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