Chiefs vs Giants Prediction, Betting Odds, and Best Bet for Sunday Night Football

The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants square off tonight in East Rutherford with both teams looking to avoid a 0-3 hole, which by most standards is extremely difficult to crawl out of.

It’s rare to see Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid on the brink this early, but after narrow losses to the Chargers and then the Eagles, the 3-time reigning AFC champions are already under immense pressure. On the other sideline, we can’t ignore the fact that the Giants have had their own issues, starting with a lackluster loss in Washington and then blowing a chance at Dallas despite a career day from Russell Wilson.

Despite both teams having a dismal start to the season, this is shaping up to be a great SNF with a lot on the line.

Game Details

Kansas City has been relatively competitive but unable to close out its first 2 games. Week 1’s opener in Brazil ended in a 6-point loss to the Chargers, followed by a 20-17 defeat at home against the Eagles. Mahomes has had to do more than usual — on top of putting up decent numbers with his 445 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT, he has also rushed with 123 yards and 2 scores on the ground to lead the Chiefs on that front. That shows both how dangerous he is and how much help Kansas City’s run game has lacked. Injuries and suspensions at WR haven’t helped, though Xavier Worthy and rookie Jalen Royals could return this week to give Mahomes some much-needed support alongside Hollywood Brown. The tools just might be there for tonight’s game.

The Giants nearly stunned the Cowboys last week in a 40-37 overtime loss, but Wilson’s interception in OT sealed their fate. He threw for 450 yards and 3 touchdowns, showing he still has the stuff. Wan’Dale Robinson had the best game of his career with 142 yards receiving, while rookie Malik Nabers continued his fast start to the season with 238 yards and 2 TDs through 2 games. The issue undoubtedly hasn’t been the offense. Instead, it’s been a defense that has been shredded to the tune of 30.5 points allowed per game, second-worst in the NFL. On top of that, they’ve given up 910 yards through the air and on the ground, which is the worst in the NFL.

Betting Odds

The Chiefs come into this game as 6-point road favorites with a moneyline of -325. The Giants are listed at +260 to pull the upset, while the total is set at 45.5 points. None of that is really surprising.

Bookmakers are giving Kansas City the clear edge, even though they’ve yet to win a game this season. Obviously, someone has to win tonight, and it looks like they’re pointing to the Chiefs.

Chiefs & Giants Analysis

The matchup tilts in Kansas City’s favor because of how poorly the Giants defend the run. New York ranks dead last in the league, giving up 177.5 rushing yards per game, and that’s a nightmare against a team like the Chiefs, who are 8-1 since 2024 when rushing for 120+ yards. Mahomes has already been their leading rusher, but if Isiah Pacheco can find his spark, Kansas City could dictate the pace and keep New York’s defense on its heels. 

The Giants’ offense is undoubtedly dangerous when Wilson has time, but he has also been turnover-prone. His 3 touchdowns against Dallas were overshadowed by a costly INT in overtime, and earlier mistakes like penalties stalled other drives. Against Kansas City’s defense, which has quietly been among the league’s stingiest with 13th in yards allowed and 305 per game, Wilson won’t get as many second chances. The Chiefs have been particularly good at limiting explosive runs and have allowed just 106 rushing yards per game, which is just another problem for a Giants team that ranks 29th in rushing yards per game at only 79.

New York’s best path to an upset tonight is through the air. This is especially true if Robinson and Nabers can continue making big plays downfield. Kansas City has given up nearly 200 passing yards per game, which ranks middle of the pack, but they’re also opportunistic and disciplined in coverage. If Wilson is forced into another high-volume passing night, you can expect the Chiefs’ pass rush to ramp up their game. Drue Tranquill has already notched 2 sacks, and Kansas City will likely test the Giants’ offensive line that has been unsettled without Andrew Thomas at LT.

The intangibles also matter here, and we can’t overlook these. Mahomes hasn’t lost 3 straight games since his college days at Texas Tech, and Andy Reid is 8-1 since 2024 when his team rushes for over 120 yards. For the Giants, the numbers are bleak when trailing — they were 0-14 last season when behind entering the 4th quarter. Against a motivated Chiefs squad, falling behind early would be a recipe for another loss and the path to a 0-3 start.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Giants showed flashes last week, and we can respect that. However, their defensive issues are too glaring to ignore. Kansas City, despite being winless, has played 2 playoff-caliber opponents close and now faces one of the weakest defenses in football. It doesn’t take a genius to see through this one. Mahomes should finally find rhythm, especially if his receivers return, and the Chiefs’ defense has the tools to slow Wilson just enough.

• Chiefs vs Giants Prediction: Chiefs 27, Giants 20
• Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -6 at -110

The urgency for Mahomes and Reid, combined with New York’s defensive struggles, makes this the best play by a long shot. For a little more added value, the over 45.5 at -108 also looks appealing with both teams capable of moving the ball, but Kansas City covering the spread is the strongest bet. You can play it safe with a moneyline bet, but we think you’ll be leaving money on the table with that bet.