Chiefs vs Cowboys Prediction — Can Mahomes Outduel Prescott in a Potential Shootout?

The Kansas City Chiefs are heading south to Arlington to face the Dallas Cowboys in what’s shaping up to be a fairly heavyweight Thanksgiving showdown for the 2nd game of the day. Both teams come in with playoff aspirations as neither is down and out, and plenty to prove. Kansas City is trying to chase down LA and Denver in the AFC West, while Dallas looks to stay alive in a crowded NFC for a wild-card slot. The Cowboys are 5-5, the Chiefs are 6-5, and both teams have explosive offenses capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM CST, and with the total hovering around 52, it’s clear that the bookmakers are expecting points. But will it be Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott who gets the last word and takes a bite of turducken to finish off their day?

Game Breakdown — Stats, Form, and Standings

The Chiefs rank 5th in total offense with 388.9 YPG and 9th in scoring with 25.2 PPG, while their defense is quietly one of the league’s best, allowing just 18.3 PPG, good for 3rd overall. That defense, though relatively underrated, has been a difference-maker, especially when the offense stalls.

Surprisingly enough, Dallas ranks even higher offensively — 4th in scoring with 29.1 PPG and 3rd in total offense with 396.8 YPG. But that production hasn’t necessarily translated to wins, mostly because their defense ranks near the bottom of the league. The Cowboys allow 28.5 PPG at 31st, and they’ve been vulnerable both on the ground with 125.2 yards allowed per game and through the air with 252.3 yards per game.

That explains why Dallas has a .500 record despite Prescott throwing 23 TDs to just 7 interceptions, and the team overall has just a +7 point differential. Javonte Williams has been a huge part of the offense, piling up 896 rushing yards and 8 TDs, while George Pickens, even though he’s questionable for today’s game, leads all Cowboys receivers with 1,054 yards and 8 scores.

For Kansas City, Mahomes has been steady on his own with 2,977 passing yards, 18 TDs, and 7 INTs. Kareem Hunt has taken on more of the rushing load, though his 457 yards and 7 scores don’t match Williams’ production. Travis Kelce remains Mahomes’ go-to guy with 674 receiving yards.

In the standings, the Chiefs are in a tight AFC West race at 6-5, sitting just behind the 9-2 Broncos and 7-4 Chargers. The Cowboys, at 5-5, are 2 games back of the Eagles in the NFC East and can’t afford many more slip-ups. The way the Eagles are playing, it’s safe to say that the Cowboys are working towards a wild-card game.

Odds and Betting Angles

Kansas City is a 3-point road favorite, with a moneyline of -175. The Cowboys sit at +145, and the total is set at 52.

Against the spread, the Chiefs are just 5-6 this season, while Dallas is slightly better at 6-5. But the most interesting angle is the totals, where Kansas City is 8-3 to the Under, while Dallas is 7-4 to the Over. That reflects each team’s identity — Kansas City plays controlled, defense-first football, while Dallas leans on its offense to win in shootouts.

Dallas is also +0.6 units ATS this season, while Kansas City is -1.6 units. Not really huge differences, but they hint that Dallas is slightly more reliable in covering numbers.

It’s no surprise that the total is in the low 50s for this game. These are both some powerful offenses that make this one of the best games to watch as you let the turkey settle on Thanksgiving.

Analysis and Matchup Insight

There’s a lot to unpack here. Statistically, this game is a battle between Kansas City’s elite defense and Dallas’ explosive offense. The Chiefs allow the 6th fewest yards and the 3rd fewest points. Dallas ranks in the top 4 in both offensive categories, but their defense is clearly its biggest problem. Allowing nearly 30 points per game makes it hard to trust them in big moments, especially against a QB like Mahomes, who isn’t looking like he did in his prime, but nonetheless still dangerous.

The Chiefs have some issues on contested throws, averaging a league-worst -0.99 EPA per play. That’s not ideal, but they make up for it with situational strength. Kansas City has been outstanding in motion plays and 3rd quarters, where they rank 1st in successful rushing attempts with motion and 2nd in passing success rate in the 3rd quarter. Of course, that’s an odd stat, but it paints the picture of how the Chiefs are getting the job done.

Defensively, Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs with 89 tackles, and George Karlaftis has 5 sacks. The defense has carried this team at times, particularly when the offense stalls or struggles in red zone efficiency.

For Dallas, Prescott has been nothing less than fantastic, but he’s not getting much help from the defense. They’ve forced just 5 interceptions all year and rank near the bottom in sacks. On offense, their 3rd-down play-calling is also a concern. The Cowboys throw the ball 69% of the time on 3rd and short, which is by far the highest rate in the NFL, and convert at a lower rate than you’d expect. That’s a red flag against a defense like Kansas City’s.

Another issue is the red zone turnovers. Dallas has 5 giveaways inside the 20, by far the most in the league. Against a team that bends but doesn’t break, those mistakes can decide a game and take the wind out of the sails of a soaring Cowboys team.

Still, you can’t overlook Javonte Williams. He’s a workhorse and may be able to gash Kansas City’s 22nd-ranked rush defense. If Pickens suits up, that opens things up even more.

But while Dallas has some serious firepower, they don’t protect leads. They’ve given up 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games. Even in their wins, they’ve been in tight battles — just a 3-point win over the Eagles and 4 over Arizona. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a gutsy OT win and have held 3 of their last 5 opponents to under 21 points.

Prediction — Chiefs Pull Away Late

This feels like a game where Kansas City’s defense wins the day despite all of the explosive offense on the field. Dallas will move the ball, of course, but between their red zone giveaways, 3rd-down inefficiency, and inability to get stops, it’s hard to see them closing the deal.

The Chiefs are simply more balanced, better on defense, and still have Patrick Mahomes. That combination has been enough in close games, and it should be again here.

• Prediction: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
• Best Bet: Chiefs -3

The spread is short, and Kansas City’s defense gives them a real edge. Shop the odds for this game, but the Cowboys’ late-game mistakes and weak red zone execution make them tough to trust. Lay the 3 points and enjoy the cash.