Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction, Odds, and Our Best Bet for Friday Night’s Brazil Showdown

Every year, the NFL season kicks off in a big way, and this year is no different. We’re not talking about just importance, but geography too. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will open the season tomorrow night, with a huge AFC West matchup taking place in São Paulo, Brazil, at Arena Corinthians. While international games opening up the season are the norm, this is the league’s first-ever regular-season game in South America, and both teams are walking into this one with something to prove.

Don’t worry, this game is at a reasonable time as kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. Central, and NBC will have the broadcast.

Game Details and Betting Odds

If you haven’t noticed, this isn’t your average Week 1 clash. It’s the defending AFC champs versus a division rival hungry to finally close the gap and start the season off right.

Kansas City comes in with 7 straight wins over Los Angeles, but most of those games have been razor-thin. In fact, 7 of the last 8 games between these teams were decided by one score or less — and the Chargers held a fourth-quarter lead in 5 of those. They’re looking to change that trend.

Still, up to this point, the results haven’t gone their way, and bookmakers have taken notice. The Chiefs are listed as 3-point favorites at -115 at most sportsbooks, with the Chargers at +3 at -105. The moneyline favors Kansas City at -170, while the Chargers are +142 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 46.5, with both sides priced at -110.

It’s worth noting that in their most recent meeting, the Chiefs barely squeaked out a 19-17 win — a game they didn’t cover as 4.5-point favorites. However, last season the Chiefs won several games by just a couple of points, so it has everyone wondering if their luck is going to run out.

Analysis — Mahomes and the Chiefs Just Keep Finding Ways

The Kansas City Chiefs ended last season with a Super Bowl loss that raised some eyebrows — not because they lost, but because they got absolutely blown out. Their 40-22 loss to the Eagles was one of the most lopsided losses of the Mahomes era. But don’t let that finale distract you from the bigger picture here — this team still won 15 games last season and owns the longest one-score win streak in NFL history at 17 straight. That’s either luck, grit, or resilience.

Patrick Mahomes is still the king of September. He’s thrown 21 TDs and just 2 picks in 7 Week 1 starts in his career. Against the Chargers, he’s racked up a whopping 3,270 yards and 27 TDs in 12 games. When the lights are on, Mahomes undoubtedly delivers.

But we should note that this team isn’t flawless. The Chiefs averaged 22.6 points per game last season — a step back by their standards — and posted a losing record against the spread with an 8-9-0 record. They struggled to separate from teams and failed to cover in 7 straight games to end the regular season.

Kansas City’s defense was reliable, but far from elite. They allowed 218.8 passing YPG, gave up 24 passing TDs, and created just 13 interceptions. The defensive front was solid, racking up 41 sacks for 266 yards lost, but the secondary gave up more explosive plays than they’d like.

The run game was average at best despite having Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, putting up 105.3 yards per game with a flat 4.0 yards per carry. Though neither of them played the entire season. They did move the chains efficiently on third downs at 48.47% of the time and dominated time of possession with long, methodical drives.

Chargers Could Be Legit, But Need to Finish

The Los Angeles Chargers finally made a leap under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, finishing last season at 11-6 and securing a playoff spot. Most of that success came from a stunning defensive turnaround as they went from 24th in scoring defense in 2023 to 1st in the NFL in 2024, allowing just 17.7 PPG.

Offensively, Justin Herbert made huge strides in efficiency. He threw only 3 interceptions all year, the lowest of his 5-year career, and posted personal bests in QB rating and completion percentage.

The Chargers still aren’t explosive on offense, but we can’t deny that they’re balanced. Their ground game averaged 110.7 rushing YPG with a decent 4.1 yards per carry. Najee Harris was added in free agency to give them a little more power, while rookie Omarion Hampton, their first-round pick, brings burst and vision. Both are listed as starters for tomorrow night’s game, suggesting a two-headed rushing attack is in play.

Through the air, the breakout name is Ladd McConkey. He finished his rookie season with a decent 82 catches for 1,149 yards, including a TD against the Chiefs in their last matchup. Kansas City’s secondary will have its hands full trying to contain the connection he and Herbert are building.

Defensively, L.A. was top-tier in just about every major category. They held opponents to just 206.9 net passing yards per game and 35.71% on third downs, and they racked up 46 sacks — more than the Chiefs. The only area of concern might be depth, especially if Harris is limited due to an eye injury and they’re forced to lean more on the pass.

Prediction — Chiefs Win Another Tight One, But Chargers Keep It Close

This game has all the ingredients for another fourth-quarter thriller that we’ve all become familiar with last season.

It’s hard to ignore the Chargers’ defensive growth, the upgraded run game, and even Herbert’s newfound efficiency. But it’s even harder to ignore Mahomes’ dominance in season openers and his knack for pulling out big wins against the Chargers.

Kansas City may not cover the spread, and we’re not expecting them to — just like last year when they were favored by 4.5 and won by 2 — but they’ve consistently shown they can close out games. Whether it’s a last-second FG, an overtime touchdown, or a timely interception, the Chiefs somehow find a way to get it done.

Playing in Brazil throws an extra wildcard into the mix as no one knows how the travel, altitude, and crowd energy will affect momentum. But if there’s one constant, it’s Mahomes showing up in big moments.

We’re expecting a low-to-mid scoring showdown, tight throughout, with Kansas City making the final play yet again. They’ve done it all too often.

• Chiefs vs Chargers Prediction: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20
• Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline at -170

The Chiefs don’t always cover, but they do win. Until the Chargers can prove to the league that they can finish, ride with the reigning AFC champs to escape with another close W.