Championship Dreams and Trenches — A CFP Semifinal Showdown Like No Other

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff has reached its final four, and it doesn’t get much better than this. After whittling away 8 really good teams, 2 semifinal matchups remain — each loaded with storylines, plenty of talent, and a national title at stake. With the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl set for Thursday night and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl following on Friday night, fans are in for 2 heavyweight fights.

From Miami’s gritty run through giants to Indiana’s surprisingly perfect season, and from Ole Miss’s resilience post-Kiffin to Oregon’s bid for revenge, there’s no shortage of CFB drama unfolding before our eyes. These are much more than merely playoff games — they’re collisions between football programs with unfinished business and different paths to greatness. 2 of these 4 teams will move on to the CFP championship on January 19th.

Ole Miss vs. Miami — Chaos vs. Control at the Fiesta Bowl

The Fiesta Bowl matchup between #6 Ole Miss and their 13-1 record and #10 Miami, sitting at 12-2, is a clash of styles. Ole Miss thrives in pace and unpredictability, which sounds conflicting, but it somehow works for them. Miami wins by shortening the game and dominating up front, which very few teams have figured out how to crack. Both teams have been tested throughout the season, and neither arrived at this point in the CFP by accident.

Ole Miss — Still Dangerous, Still Standing

Very few that follow college football thought Ole Miss would still be here after Lane Kiffin left mid-postseason. It was pure chaos, but it just is what it is. But here they are, thanks to the explosive arm of senior QB Trinidad Chambliss and the legs of sophomore RB Kewan Lacy. They’ve got the tools to get the job done, but will it be enough?

Chambliss is the kind of QB that defenses simply hate to see. He has one of the fastest releases, insane mobility, and that dangerous ability to make plays under pressure. This season, he’s put up some respectable numbers with 3,660 yards and 21 TDs to his name. Against Georgia, he delivered 362 of those passing yards and a string of big-time throws that flipped the game late. Against Georgia! Many thought they’d go all the way. He’s cool when chaos hits — and with Miami’s pass rush, he’ll need to be again.

Lacy has quietly put together one of the best seasons of any RB in the country. He’s 3rd nationally in rushing yards and leads all Power Four backs in TDs. Even banged up, he found the end zone twice against Georgia. Miami’s front will most likely be his toughest test yet, but if he breaks a few runs early, Ole Miss can control the tempo and grind out a ticket to the CFP national championship.

The real concern we see for the Rebels is depth — especially on defense. Their D-line is elite at stopping the run, but behind that, they have some suspect tackling and a secondary prone to lapses. If they can’t win early downs, Miami will eat the clock and make this a long night for the Rebels.

Miami — The Cinderella With Steel-Toe Boots

Don’t let the #10 seed fool you — Miami isn’t just lucky to be here. They earned this. First, by toppling Texas A&M 13-3 in one of the most hostile environments in the nation. Then, by outmuscling Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl in a win that flipped the narrative around, this team. All of a sudden, fans and bettors are thinking they have a serious shot at the trophy.

The Hurricanes are built in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate in the country. Their defensive front is just as disruptive as any, with Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor wrecking backfields left and right.

Transfer QB Carson Beck has managed both playoff games with poise, even if he hasn’t lit up the stat sheet as he’s only racked up 3,313 yards and 27 TDs on the season — but he hasn’t turned the ball over, and he’s moved the chains. That’s exactly what Miami needs him to do in the Fiesta Bowl. Let the line control the game, lean on Mark Fletcher Jr. to hammer away at Ole Miss’s interior, and avoid the shootout. It sounds simpler than it is, but that’s where we’re at.

Where Miami could get burned is if Chambliss buys time and attacks their secondary deep. Their pass rush is deadly — but if Chambliss escapes it, plays can get out of hand fast.

The Bottom Line

This one really could go either way. If Miami controls TOP and keeps Chambliss off the field, they win ugly, but nonetheless, they win. If Ole Miss finds rhythm and hits chunk plays like they’re used to, the Hurricanes will be forced to chase, and that’s not their game style.

This one is more of a coin flip — but turnovers and 3rd downs will decide it.

Indiana vs. Oregon — Rematch With Revenge in the Peach Bowl

#1 Indiana at 14-0 and #5 Oregon at 13-1 already know each other. The Hoosiers walked into Autzen Stadium in Week 7 and left with a 30-20 win that felt like a message to the country that they deserve to be #1. Now, they meet again but with much higher stakes — this time with a national championship berth on the line.

Indiana — From Afterthought to Alpha

The idea of Indiana football being one win from a national title game would’ve sounded like a joke just 2 years ago, when they went 3-9 and 1-8 in conference. But under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are no joke. They’re 14-0. That’s a statement if there ever was one. They’ve steamrolled Alabama like they were playing a high school JV team. They’ve already beaten Oregon once, and they’re doing it with a Heisman-winning QB in Fernando Mendoza.

Mendoza doesn’t dazzle, but that’s part of his appeal. He wins. Efficient, calm, and sharp against intense pressure. He’s a thinker. He reads blitzes well and doesn’t make big mistakes. In the Alabama game, he threw 2 second-half TD passes that turned a relatively competitive game into a blowout.

That said, Oregon did give him a bit of trouble the first time around. They blitzed him at a high rate, and it worked — his second-worst game of the year. He threw a pick-6 and had trouble finding deep shots. Undoubtedly, he’ll need to be sharper this time, especially if Oregon forces Indiana into passing downs.

The Hoosiers’ real identity, though, is balance. They don’t rely on explosive plays like some of the other teams; instead, they move the ball steadily with Roman Hemby and his 1,000+ yards this season on the ground and a receiving corps led by Omar Cooper Jr that finds soft spots underneath.

And defensively, there are very few units in the country that are better. They’ve allowed just 13 deep completions all year. Against Alabama, they turned the Tide’s otherwise stellar offense into mush.

Oregon — Revenge, Reloaded

Oregon might be the most talented team left on the CFP bracket. Sophomore QB Dante Moore is top 10 in passing TDs with 28 and deep-ball efficiency. When he has time, he’s undeniably surgical. But Indiana cracked him once — and that’s the challenge. You can bet they’ll try to use the same script on him this time around as well.

In their first meeting, Moore got sacked 6 times and was hit even more than that. He was held to one deep completion and spent most of the night scrambling. If Oregon can protect him, this is a different game altogether.

Oregon’s defense has also leveled up since that loss. They shut out Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, forced 4 turnovers, and looked like the faster, nastier team — because they were. Freshman corner Brandon Finney Jr. had 2 interceptions, Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti were surging off the edge, and their run defense is no joke either, as they’re tied for best in rushing grade nationally.

The Ducks will need to stay disciplined, though, because unlike other opponents, Indiana doesn’t beat itself. If Oregon gets impatient and tries to force the big play, it’ll fall into the same trap as before.

The Bottom Line

This is clearly the chess match of the semifinals. Indiana is steady, balanced, and efficient, while Oregon is explosive, unpredictable, and seeking revenge. For Oregon to flip the script, they’ll need to win in the trenches and get Moore comfortable early.

If not, Indiana will just keep grinding and pulling away—one long drive at a time while Mendoza makes it look easy.

What’s At Stake

Of course, both of these huge games carry major implications, not just for the title picture but for the programs involved.

• Indiana could become the first team from outside the blue-blood tier to win a national championship in decades. That’s a statement they would love to make. It would be one of the most improbable runs in modern college football history, and they might just make a movie about it.
• Oregon is trying to prove that flashy and physical can coexist — and that the Pac-12’s transition to the Big Ten won’t slow them down one bit.
• Miami is playing for validation more than anything for the return to the national stage that’s evaded them for 20 years.
• Ole Miss is the wild card you love to watch. The team that lost their coach and still punched back, clawing their way to the semifinals. If they win it all, it’s a story for the ages. Even if they don’t win, it’s still a good story.

The semifinals are set, the matchups are undoubtedly tight, and the storylines couldn’t be better for the final four. It’s almost like the CFP committee got it right this time around. You’ve got revenge games, breakout stars, and programs writing new chapters in their storied histories. Whether it’s Oregon’s deep ball, Indiana’s grind, Miami’s muscle, or Ole Miss’s chaos, one thing’s for sure — only 2 teams will leave these games still standing, and the path to that national championship is going straight through the trenches.