CFP Title Game Props – Michigan vs. Washington

A pair of dramatic semifinal victories for Michigan and Washington have left college football fans optimistic about a competitive conclusion to the season in the CFP Championship game.

Last season’s title game saw Georgia dismantle TCU in the biggest blowout during the CFP and BCS eras. Even when setting aside that 65-7 result, the previous four championship games were decided by an average of 22 points. One would have to look back before this stretch when Alabama won two championship games and lost another by less than a touchdown each time to find a balanced product.

Michigan has moved to five-point favorites after opening at -4 over Washington. The Wolverines are playing for their first national championship since 1997, when Heisman-winner Charles Woodson and Brian Griese led the program to victory over Washington State in the Rose Bowl and a 12-0 record. This season marks Michigan’s first Rose Bowl victory since 1997 and would also be their first undefeated campaign in that time.

The Huskies also claimed their last national title with a Rose Bowl triumph that occurred in 1991, beating Iowa and cementing an undefeated 12-0 season. In the following two years, Washington would meet Michigan in the Rose Bowl, with each team winning one of the two. The Huskies beat the Wolverines 34-14 on Jan. 1, 1992, and the latter returned the favor a year later, winning 38-31.

In their most recent battle, Michigan won 31-10 in September 2021 and rushed for nearly 350 yards in an early-season non-conference game at home.

With all the chips in the center of the table, it’s only fitting that we wade into these waters and take some action, too. Our best bets for props in this year’s CFP title game are presented next. Thanks for following along during an exciting and prosperous season.

Rome Odunze OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)

• From the eye test, Odunze and Michael Penix Jr. couldn’t be more synced than they were in the Sugar Bowl. The precision of the routes and throws, despite tight coverage, will be complex for even Michigan’s defense to prevent.
• The teams with the best passing attacks that the Wolverines played this season were Maryland (#22) and Ohio State (#31). Those two teams combined to average 8.5 yards per pass attempt in losses to Michigan. Washington ranks first in the country in passing.
• In six games against ranked teams, Odunze averaged 6.1 catches, 109 yards, and 1 TD per matchup this season. He is a big game player who would cause problems for any opponent.

Blake Corum UNDER 105.5 Rushing Yards (+105 @ DraftKings)

• Washington’s rush defense has benefited from their passing attack and prolific scoring offense. Opponents attempted just 31.1 rushing attempts per game against the Huskies, the 14th-fewest in the FBS.
• When teams did run on Washington, they usually had success. UW ranked 89th in opponent yards per carry in 2023.
• Against Oregon (twice), USC, Utah, and Texas, the Huskies allowed 826 yards and 11 touchdowns on 142 carries (5.8 ypc). Washington allowed 180+ rushing yards in three of those five matchups.
• Despite this past performance and that Corum has averaged 22.2 carries per game over the Wolverines’ last five, we project him to stay under the century mark in the title game.
• Corum has averaged 4.1 yards per carry in this recent stretch, but if you remove the Penn State game, that number drops to 3.7. This isn’t the same Michigan rushing attack in 2023. Corum will likely find the endzone, but we don’t see him powering his way for over 100 yards.

Highest Scoring Half: Second Half (-110 @ DraftKings)

• In the recently non-competitive championship games, four of the five matchups saw first-half scoring outbursts that outweighed any contributions in the second half.
• During the more evenly-matched title games we highlighted earlier, the scoring occurred more in the latter half of the game.
• Since we expect Washington to compete with Michigan, we project the scoring will continue into the second half, and neither team will be playing backups when precious fourth-quarter seconds are ticking away.