Capitals vs Oilers Prediction — Draisaitl’s Return Could Be the Difference

The Washington Capitals are traveling north to Edmonton tonight to face the Oilers in what really could be a statement game for both clubs. Washington is trying to stop the bleeding after a heartbreaking 4-game regulation skid, while Edmonton looks to bounce back from an embarrassing loss and welcome back a huge piece of their team in Leon Draisaitl. With playoff positioning tight in both conferences, this one has urgency written all over it.

Game Details, Odds, and Setting

The puck drops at 9:00 PM ET tonight at Rogers Place. The Oilers, sitting at 25-19-8, are 2nd in the Pacific Division with 58 points, while the Capitals, sitting at 24-21-6, are clinging to a playoff spot with 54 points in the Metro. There’s still plenty of hockey to go in the season, but they can’t get stagnant for too long.

The Oilers are listed as -175 favorites on the moneyline, while the Capitals are +145 underdogs. The total is set at 6.5, shaded slightly toward the over.

Edmonton is welcoming the Caps to their home ice as they will be looking to even the season series after dropping the first meeting 7-4 back in November.

Recent Form and Team Trends

The Oilers are taking the ice after a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Penguins, but that was a rare stumble for a team that had won 3 games straight prior, with 6-0 vs Vancouver, 5-0 vs St. Louis, and 2-1 vs New Jersey. Not a bad run, but the Pens embarrassed them.

Washington, meanwhile, is on a full-on skid, and they’re trying to stop the bleeding. They’ve lost 4 straight in regulation—4-3 to Vancouver, 5-2 to Colorado, 5-2 to Florida, and 3-2 to San Jose. Their lone win in the last 5 came in OT against Montreal. That’s just a single point in 10 days. That is not a good spot to be in as we enter the second half of the season.

The contrast in momentum between these 2 teams is undeniably sharp, but the real story here is the return of Leon Draisaitl.

Why Draisaitl Changes Everything

Leon Draisaitl, with his 25 goals and 42 helpers, is expected back after a 4-game absence due to a family matter. His return isn’t just a boost for the orange and blue — it’s a reset button on how Edmonton operates offensively.

With Draisaitl back, the Oilers can stretch teams with multiple layers. You can’t just focus on Connor McDavid, who has 85 points spanning 30 goals and 55 assists, because now you’ve got two elite drivers on separate lines — or paired up for maximum chaos. With Draisaitl missing a few games, he might step back to the 2nd or 3rd line for a game or two. Now add in a league-best 32.2% power play, and Washington has a real problem on their hands.

Draisaitl also adds composure to the Oilers’ puck control game. He slows things down when they need it the most, makes defenders over-commit, and turns broken plays into real, high-danger chances. Against a fragile Washington side — that’s a nightmare matchup.

Washington’s Slide Feels Like More Than a Blip

Head coach Spencer Carbery said it himself — this feels like their season “hanging in the balance.” That’s not coach-speak — it’s the honest truth. 4 straight regulation losses and a brutal upcoming schedule have pushed the Caps into desperation mode at a time in the season when they should be gliding into playoff positioning.

And when desperation meets pressure, mistakes tend to follow, and teams in this kind of slide tend to play conservatively in third periods, overthink special teams, and lack offensive rhythm. That’s where the Caps are, and you can bet the Oilers know this.

Tom Wilson, who has 22 goals with 43 points, has been their offensive leader, but when your top scorer only has 43 points, you’re not going to out-skate or out-gun a team with insane offensive firepower like Edmonton.

Special Teams Swing This Game

This game could tilt quickly if penalties stack up. The Oilers lead the league in power play efficiency at an insane 32.2%, while the Capitals sit near the bottom in PK at 78.0%.

The Caps have been slightly more disciplined overall in terms of PIM as they’ve tallied 472 compared to Edmonton’s 490, but that hasn’t exactly translated into special teams results. Edmonton has scored 46 power play goals to Washington’s 25. That’s not a gap — it’s a canyon, and it’s something that could easily sway this game.

If Washington takes 3-4 minors, Edmonton could bury them early. One lazy stick, one delay of the game, and the game could swing on a dime. When your team lacks any sort of rhythm, mistakes tend to happen, and players get sloppy. 

Goaltending Breakdown

Tristan Jarry didn’t have a great night vs Pittsburgh, but he’s still a solid netminder who simply had a bad night. He’s currently 13-5-2 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 SV%. Those numbers aren’t elite, but they’re better than when the Oilers had Skinner in the net.

Washington’s best bet in goal is Logan Thompson. He’s been solid with a 17-5-1 record, 2.43 GAA, and .913 SV%. But he’s been under siege lately and can’t do it all on his own. He’ll need the blue line to limit the high danger changes and keep the slot clear.

While we expect Thompson to get the nod, he’s been ice-cold lately. So, if the Caps go with Charlie Lindgren, who is 7-6-2 with a 3.25 GAA and .888 SV%, it’s advantage Oilers all the way.

Prediction — Oilers Stay, Stop their Mini Skid

This feels like a game where Edmonton comes out flying. They’re at home, they’re angry after the Pittsburgh loss, and they get Draisaitl back. That energy matters, and what better team to take out their aggression on?

Washington is on the ropes, and while desperation can sometimes lead to surprising efforts, their recent play suggests they’re trending in the wrong direction. Edmonton’s speed, puck control, and lethal power play are simply too much for a team this shaky.

• Prediction: Oilers 4, Capitals 2
• Best Bet: Oilers -1.5 at +140

We think all signs point to the puck line being worth the squeeze here. Washington hasn’t just been losing — they’ve lost by multiple goals more often than not. Edmonton, on the other hand, has 3 wins this month by 4+ goals, and with Draisaitl back and the power play locked in, this is a strong spot to lay the goals.