Canadiens vs Wild Prediction – Can Montreal’s Hot Streak Hold in Minnesota?

This game is going to be a good one. The Montreal Canadiens are heading into St. Paul with momentum, riding a 3-game win streak and a recent win over these same Minnesota Wild just a couple of weeks ago. The puck drops at 6:30 PM ET tonight, and there’s plenty on the line. Montreal sits just behind Detroit and Tampa in the Atlantic race, while Minnesota is trying to keep pace with Colorado for the #1 spot in the Central. The last time these powerhouses met, the Habs took a 4-3 win, but this time, it’s in Minnesota’s barn — and the Wild simply don’t lose many games at home.

Game Details and Odds

The Wild have been phenomenal at home this year, where they’ve gone 16-6-7, but let’s be real, Montreal has been just as effective on the road at 15-6-6. Both teams come in with identical 6-3-1 records in their last 10, but Minnesota has the edge in overall record with a 32-14-10 vs. 31-17-7, but regardless, this is a tight matchup on paper.

Many bookmakers opened Minnesota at -148, and they’ve stayed the favorite with their home edge and more reliable goaltending. The Canadiens are just beyond even at +114 on the moneyline with the total set at 6.5 goals. That number makes sense, considering both teams are averaging 3.2+ GF/G over the season and even more in their last 10.

The bookmakers seem to have the lines right on this one, at least for now. This boils down to 2 good teams, staying hot through the stretch, and one of them looking to level the score.

Breaking Down the Matchup

Montreal is, without a doubt, clicking offensively. They’ve scored 189 goals this season, good for 4th overall in the NHL, and lead the league in shooting percentage at a staggering 13.0%. Cole Caufield has buried 32 goals, and Nick Suzuki continues to drive the offense with 64 points, and then you add in Lane Hutson’s 27 assists, and you’ve got a team that’s finding contributions from all over. Depth goes a long way in this league.

Minnesota counters with a strong attack of its own as Kirill Kaprizov leads the team with 67 points and 30 goals and is doing a bit of everything. Matthew Boldy’s been equally impactful with 29 goals and 27 helpers, while Vladimir Tarasenko has chipped in 6 goals in his last 10. They’re deep and very balanced.

On special teams, both clubs have some decent power play units — Minnesota ranks 6th at 25.0%, just ahead of Montreal’s 23.8%, which is 7th overall. The Wild also kill penalties at a slightly better rate with 77.9% compared to Montreal’s 77.1%, though both are just below average by league standards.

The difference starts to show on the other end of the ice. Their bluelines aren’t as good as their offense, but one is definitely better.

Montreal simply gives up too many goals. They’ve allowed a staggering 178 goals, 25th in the NHL, and they’ve taken 574 PIMs, which is the 5th most in the league. So it goes without saying that discipline continues to be an issue. Meanwhile, Minnesota has only surrendered 158 goals, good for 10th, and stays out of the box more, with just 385 PIMs, the fewest in the league. This could be the determining factor in tonight’s matchup.

That all helps their netminders, and this is where Minnesota pulls ahead when it comes to numbers.

Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt have both had solid seasons for the Wild so far. Gustavsson is looking dominant with a 2.57 GAA and .910 SV%, while Wallstedt’s been even better with a 2.74 GAA and .914 SV%, just with fewer games under his belt. On the other end of the ice, Jakub Dobes has been serviceable for Montreal with a 2.92 GAA and .894 SV%, but Samuel Montembeault has struggled quite a bit, with a 3.46 GAA and .869 SV%. Neither team has announced its goalie for tonight, but we’re thinking it might be Montembeault and Gustavsson in this matchup.

That’s going to be a massive problem when facing a Wild team that’s been pouring it on heavy. Over their last 10 games, they’re averaging 3.9 GF/G, and they’ve scored at 4+ goals in 5 straight games. Even their 4-3 loss to Chicago came in a shootout. They’re lighting it up, and they’re doing it consistently.

Prediction and Best Bet

We can’t deny the fact that Montreal’s playing some of its best hockey of the season, but Minnesota’s just built better for this spot.

The Wild have a big edge in goaltending, take fewer penalties, and defend more consistently. Offensively, they can match whatever Montreal brings to the table. Between the home crowd, the revenge factor after a January loss a couple of weeks ago, and their recent form, which includes 4 straight wins, all point to Minnesota getting it done tonight.

• Prediction: Wild 4, Canadiens 3
• Best Bet: Wild moneyline at -135

It’s undeniable that Minnesota’s offense is on a heater, and their goalies give them the edge in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. The Wild are 4-0 in their last 4, and they’ve got the depth and discipline to end Montreal’s 3-game win streak. 

With how well these teams are playing right now, we’d caution against the puckline unless you were looking at Montreal +1.5 at -218, but the better value is clearly on the Wild’s moneyline at -135.  It’s not one of the best bets on the board for tonight, as we prefer a plus-money bet all day, but this is definitely the best game of the night.