The Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils square off tonight in what is shaping up to be an early-season statement game for both hockey clubs. Montreal, fresh off a 5-4 shootout loss to Philly, will try to bounce back against a Devils team that’s been perfect at home so far this season. With both teams sitting nicely with 9 wins and at the top of their divisions, this matchup has the potential to be the most competitive game on the slate.
Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET at Prudential Center in Newark, where the Devils are 5-0-0 at home this season. So far, no team has been able to overcome the home crowd at Prudential. But let’s not forget that the Canadiens are no slouch on the road, posting a 5-2-0 away record, and they come in at 9-3-1 overall, which is good for 1st place in the Atlantic Division. New Jersey sits at 9-4-0, tied for the top slot in the Metro Division.
Bookmakers have the Devils listed as -142 favorites on the moneyline, with the Canadiens available at +120. The puck line has New Jersey -1.5 at +170, while Montreal +1.5 comes in at -205. The total is set at 6.5 goals, juiced to the under at -125 and the over priced at +105.
| Puck Line | Total | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canadiens | +1.5 −205 | O 8.5 +105 | +120 |
| Devils | −1.5 +170 | U 8.5 −125 | −142 |
Despite New Jersey’s edge at home, the betting market expects a close, low-scoring game, and that’s easy to see once you dig into the numbers a bit. These are 2 teams that are ferocious up and down the ice.
Both teams have similar win totals, but their styles and strengths differ quite a bit.
Montreal’s success is fueled by elite efficiency. They’ve scored 48 goals on just 331 shots, giving them a 14.5% shooting percentage, which is the best in the NHL and speaks to their ability to capitalize on chances. As expected, Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki have led the way. Caufield is tied for the team lead with 10 goals, while Suzuki has piled up 16 helpers, giving him 19 points, which is the most in the NHL on its own.
The Canadiens have gone 7-2-1 in their last 10, where they’re averaging 3.8 goals and allowing 3.2. That’s despite racking up 11.2 PIM per game over that stretch, which is a huge red flag going into a matchup with a power-play unit like New Jersey’s. The Canadiens’ PK isn’t all that great and ranks 23rd at just 75.6%, and if they can’t stay out of the box, the Devils will make them pay and steal another one at home.
New Jersey has the 4th-best power play unit in the NHL, converting at 31.3% of the time. On top of that, they’ve only taken 99 PIM all season, which is 3rd third-fewest in the league. Their special teams discipline is a huge advantage. Their penalty kill has been excellent, shutting down 86.7% of opposing power plays.
Jack Hughes not only leads the Devils with 10 goals and 16 points, but he’s smoking hot right now. Those goals include a 4-goal burst in his last 5 games. He’s been nearly unstoppable on home ice. Jesper Bratt is quietly driving the offense too, racking up 9 helpers and stretching opposing defenses with his skating.
But the biggest concern we see for New Jersey is in the net. Jacob Markstrom is the projected starter, and he’s been shaky. He holds a .875 SV% and 4.17 GAA — easily one of the worst stat lines among starting goaltenders in the league right now. That’s a massive drop-off compared to Montreal’s Jakub Dobes, who boasts a respectable .930 SV% and an elite 1.97 GAA. Dobes has been a big difference-maker all season and gives Montreal a monstrous edge between the pipes.
While both teams have allowed 40 goals so far, New Jersey’s defensive metrics are slightly more favorable thanks to their better penalty kill and lower shot volume allowed. Still, goaltending could very well be the swing factor in tonight’s showdown, and the Canadiens win that battle in a landslide.
Montreal also comes into this one with more confidence despite the loss to Philadelphia. They’ve picked up wins in 4 of their last 5, 3 of which came in overtime. That speaks to clutch play and composure late in games, which are 2 things that will matter against a high-pressure Devils team.
The Devils undoubtedly have the better special teams and the stronger overall team defense on paper. But we all know that goaltending matters, and right now there’s a wide gap. If Dobes continues his hot play and the Canadiens limit penalties, they’ve got a real shot at stealing this one on the road.
The real value for your bet slip tonight is on Montreal at +120. They’re scoring at a higher clip, they’ve definitely got the hotter goalie, and they’ve found ways to win close games all season. New Jersey’s home record is undeniably strong since they’re undefeated on their own ice, but goaltending concerns are too hard to ignore in a pick-em type matchup. Beyond that, a +120 win for the night is always welcomed for Thursday Night Hockey.
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