Can Ovechkin Break Wayne Gretzky’s Record?

Unless you’ve been under a rock this season, then you’re aware that Alex Ovechkin, one of the greatest goal scorers in NHL history, is just 21 goals shy of Wayne Gretzky’s legendary all-time goal-scoring record of 894 goals. Ovechkin has tallied 874 goals over his illustrious career which puts him on the brink of achieving something many thought was untouchable for the longest time.

But can he truly break the record during the 2024-2025 season? It’ll be a close one, but regardless, if he sticks it out through the end of his contract after the 2025-2026 season, he should have no problem achieving this feat.

Ovechkin’s Consistency is Unmatched

Few players in NHL history have demonstrated the kind of consistency that Alex Ovechkin has over his 20-year career with the Washington Capitals.

With 21 goals already this season, he’s continued a streak of scoring at least 20 goals in every season since entering the league in 2005, though he has slowed down a bit in his old age. This achievement ties Gordie Howe’s legendary mark for the most consecutive 20-goal seasons and if he comes back next year, which it seems like he will, he will probably break this record too.

This consistency isn’t a fluke. Ovechkin is built to score goals. Standing at 6’3” and weighing 238 pounds, he combines size, skill, and a lethal shot that simply defies the odds. His signature one-timer from the left circle, often referred to as his “office” by most pundits, remains one of the most feared weapons in the league.

Even at 39 years old, he’s undoubtedly proven he still has the endurance and scoring touch to keep producing even into his twilight years. His current pace of 0.60 goals per game means he’s on track to score around 50 goals in the 82-game season — pending he stays healthy. That pace would mean he will blow through The Great One’s record.

Gretzky’s Record: Once Thought Unbreakable

Wayne Gretzky’s record of 894 career goals has stood since he retired with the New York Rangers in 1999.

Since that time, it seemed insurmountable. Gretzky’s ability to not only score goals but also rack up assists made him the undisputed “Great One.” His 894 goals stood atop the NHL leaderboard with quite a cushion over other legends like Gordie Howe and Jaromír Jágr. Behind Ovechkin, the next active NHL player that is even in the ballpark is Sidney Crosby with his 605 goals which is good for 20th on the list.

But the modern NHL is different. The game is faster, more physical, and even the goaltenders have their advanced training and techniques. For a player to even come close to Gretzky’s record in today’s era is simply astounding.

Ovechkin’s climb to 874 goals isn’t just impressive — it’s historic.

The Math Behind the Chase

Ovechkin’s career statistics tell a story of just pure excellence. His 874 goals in 1,456 career games gives him an average of 0.60 goals per game, which is one of the best in the league. At that rate, he would need about 35 more games this season to score the 21 goals he needs to break Gretzky’s record.

If he continues at his current pace, we’re thinking that Ovechkin should have no problem comfortably breaking the record by the end of the 2024-2025 season. With just around half the season left to play, he’s set to make history sometime in the month of March.

Factors Working in Ovechkin’s Favor

One of the biggest keys to Ovechkin’s success has undoubtedly been his durability.

While he’s had a few minor injuries over the years, including a stint on the IR earlier this season, he’s avoided the kind of significant setbacks that can derail a career. Maintaining his physical condition will be a major factor as he pushes through the rest of the season and into the next.

Ovechkin has scored 317 power-play goals, the most in NHL history and it’s not even close. The next on the active list is Steven Stamkos with 222. The man advantage is obviously where he thrives, and it’s likely where several of the record-breaking goals just might come from. His ability to find open ice and unleash his trademark shot gives him an edge that only a few players in history can even match.

Lastly, the Washington Capitals have built their system around Ovechkin’s scoring ability. Even as the team transitions to a younger core, they still acknowledge his skillset and remain committed to giving him opportunities to succeed. Whether it’s feeding him passes on the power play or setting him up for scoring chances at 5-on-5, the Caps are all in on helping him make history and the fans are loving it.

Challenges Ahead

While the odds are without a doubt in favor of Ovechkin, breaking Gretzky’s record isn’t a guarantee. He does have some hurdles he’ll have to consider as he makes the move for greatness.

1. Age and wear-and-tear. At 39, Ovechkin is nearing the end of his career and also sits as one of the top 5 oldest players in the league. While he’s shown very few signs of slowing down, age can catch up quickly in pro sports that are dominated by 20-somethings. A nagging injury or a dip in form could be a big setback in his pursuit.
2. Increased defensive focus. As Ovechkin gets closer to the record, opposing teams will undoubtedly put a little extra focus on shutting him down. They know what he’s capable of. He’s no stranger to tight checking, but defenses may go to greater lengths to deny him opportunities.
3. Pressure and expectations. The spotlight will only grow brighter as he gets even closer to the coveted 895. While Ovechkin has handled pressure remarkably well throughout his career, the added scrutiny could make things more challenging, though, he’s said he’s not focused on the achievement.

There’s still plenty of hockey in the 2024-25 season and Alex Ovechkin is all in for the Caps, especially since they’re looking like solid contenders for a playoff spot.

Ovechkin Even Has Gretzky’s Blessing

Wayne Gretzky himself has been nothing but supportive of Ovechkin’s chase. He even went so far as to praising Ovechkin’s skill and consistency, calling it “just a matter of time” before the record falls and he’s rooting for him.

Gretzky’s endorsement just underscores the respect Ovechkin commands across the NHL and beyond.

Does Ovechkin Break the NHL Record This Season?

So, can Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s record? Absolutely.

At his current pace, it’s not just a matter of if but when. With 21 goals already this season and just 21 more needed, he’s on track to make history in the regular season.

When Ovechkin does surpass Gretzky, it will mark the end of an era and the beginning of a new one in that we’ll all keep our eyes on new young talent that has the potential to chase it. His achievement will be celebrated not only as a personal milestone but as a testament to what’s possible in the modern NHL.