BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

It doesn’t get much bigger in the Big 12 — or even this week — than this. #7 BYU is heading south to Lubbock to face #8 Texas Tech in a rare top-10 conference matchup with some serious playoff implications and a possible Big 12 title game preview. BYU is coming in undefeated at 8-0, while Texas Tech sits at 8-1 with their only loss coming on the road by 4 points. The energy in Lubbock is already off the charts, and by kickoff tomorrow morning, this will be one of the biggest college football atmospheres of the year.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Kickoff is set for tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT, airing nationally on ABC. The game will take place at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas, where the Red Raiders haven’t hosted a matchup this big since their legendary 2008 upset over then-#1 Texas.

Texas Tech is listed as a 10.5-point favorite by most bookmakers, with the total sitting at 51.5 points. The moneyline odds currently have Texas Tech priced at -410, while BYU is a big underdog at +320. That’s a lot of respect from the bookmakers for a team facing an unbeaten opponent, and it speaks volumes to how dominant the Red Raiders have been on both sides of the ball.

BYU — Undefeated but Battle-Tested

BYU is the epitome of resiliency as they’ve found ways to win in every type of game. They survived a 2OT thriller against Arizona, gutted out really tight wins over #23 Utah and Colorado, and just handled Iowa State 41-27 on the road. This team is tough, disciplined, and opportunistic.

Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier is without a doubt the big story. He’s thrown for 1,693 yards with 11 TDs to just 3 picks, and has added rushing touchdowns in 6 different games. His composure has been remarkable for a first-year true-freshman. However, tomorrow he’ll face the most relentless defense he’s seen all year — the Red Raider defense.

The offense leans heavily on running back LJ Martin, who’s rushed for 789 yards and 5 TDs, and he’s topped 100 yards in 5 games, but he exited early against Iowa State with a shoulder injury. Of course, the bye week helped, and he’s back at practice, but how healthy he’ll be and how effective he’ll be remains a question. If he’s limited, BYU’s offense becomes far more predictable.

Defensively, the Cougars have held opponents to just 17.0 PPG and 318.3 YPG. They’ve been solid against the pass but slightly weaker against the run, giving up 129.4 rushing yards per game. Overall, however, that’s solid considering the teams they’ve faced. But against a balanced offense like Texas Tech, that could spell trouble.

Texas Tech — Balanced, Physical, and Peaking

Texas Tech is peaking at the right time as if they haven’t been peaking all season. They’ve won 5 straight, including back-to-back dominant wins with 42-0 over Oklahoma State and 43-20 over Kansas State. This team can hit you in every phase. Like BYU, they’ve also played some decent teams, but tomorrow’s showdown just might be their biggest challenge yet.

Senior QB Behren Morton is healthy again after a leg injury and playing sharp football, racking up 15 TDs, just 4 interceptions, and an efficient 125/184 passing line. He’s not just managing games, no, he’s doing much more than that. He’s stretching the field and putting pressure on defenses vertically and with tempo.

RB Cam’Ron Dickey is just behind LJ Martin in total rushing yards with 746, but he’s added 10 touchdowns and is the more explosive threat in the red zone and near the goal line. Receiver Caleb Douglas leads the way through the air with 594 yards and 4 TDs, and he’s been a reliable weapon for Morton all year.

The biggest difference between these teams, though, is clearly on defense. Texas Tech is giving up just 13.2 PPG, 3rd-best in the nation, and only 271.3 total yards. Their run defense ranks 5th nationally, allowing just 74.6 rushing yards per game, and they haven’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season. That’s just pure dominance and takes stress off the offense — as if they needed it.

Up front, the Red Raiders have a game-changer in David Bailey, who leads the country with a whopping 11.5 sacks, and now add in Jacob Rodriguez, the nation’s leader in forced fumbles with 7, and you’ve got a defense that doesn’t just stop drives — it totally flips momentum.

Offensively, the Red Raiders rank 5th in scoring at 43.6 PPG and are 7th in total yardage with 492.3 per game. They convert 49.3% of 3rd downs, which puts them among the top 30 in the country. This is a complete football team that wins in all phases. They’re definitely contenders for the CFB.

Why Texas Tech Covers the Spread

BYU has survived some really close games against decent teams, but they haven’t faced a defense like this. Texas Tech’s front 7 will challenge their offensive line all day. If LJ Martin isn’t 100% or if BYU falls behind early and has to abandon the run, Bachmeier is going to be under pressure all afternoon, and it won’t be pretty. That’s not a situation you want to put a freshman QB in, especially on the road in one of the loudest environments he’ll see in his collegiate career.

BYU has been efficient, but its offense hasn’t been what we’d call explosive. Texas Tech’s defense thrives on turnovers, and they’ve shown they can shut down balanced teams. The Cougars have also been penalized often, ranking near the top in penalty yards. 

Texas Tech is simply too fast, too deep, and too well-rounded. Their ability to get off the field on defense and strike quickly on offense will keep BYU off balance all game. While we don’t see this being a total blowout, the Red Raiders should pull away late and cover the number.

• Prediction: Texas Tech 31, BYU 20
• Best Bet: Take Texas Tech -10.5

The Red Raiders have more ways to win this game and, without a doubt, the better defense. They’re at home, they’re healthy, and they’re playing with tons of confidence. Unless a miracle happens, we expect the Red Raiders to climb the rankings just a bit more on Sunday.