Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction — Can Denver Deliver a Christmas Blowout?

The Kansas City Chiefs will be down to their 3rd-string QB for today’s Christmas Day showdown as they host the red-hot Denver Broncos. With Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew both on the IR, it’s now Chris Oladokun at the helm — an NFL quarterback with 16 career pass attempts and 0 starts. Chances are, you’ve never heard of him. Meanwhile, Bo Nix and the 12-3 Denver Broncos are looking to secure the top seed in the AFC with a win today. The spread says it all — Denver is a 13-point road favorite. It’s the biggest underdog line Kansas City has seen at home since 1977.

Game Details, Odds & Situation

This Christmas night game kicks off at 7:15 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium, airing on Prime Video. The Chiefs are 6-9 and already eliminated from the playoff race, while the Broncos are 12-3 and still in the hunt for the AFC’s #1 seed. Kansas City is 5-3 at home, but that stat means little these days, given the QB situation, and on top of that, Denver is a strong 5-2 on the road.

Denver opened as a -5.5 favorite before Minshew’s injury. Once Oladokun was confirmed as the most likely starter, the line jumped up to Broncos -13 at BetMGM. The total has hovered right around 37.5, which goes to show the bookmaker’s expectation that Kansas City won’t score much — if at all. For the record, the Chiefs haven’t been shut out since the Raiders did it back in December 2012.

Why the Broncos Are in the Driver’s Seat

Denver enters with some serious momentum, winning 4 of its last 5 games. That includes a 27-26 road OT win at Washington and a 34-26 home win over the Packers. Their only recent stumble was last week’s loss to Jacksonville, and even that was more about late-game execution than simply getting outplayed for a full 60 minutes.

Bo Nix has thrown for 3,608 yards, 24 TDs, and 10 picks this season, and his chemistry with Courtland Sutton, who has 972 yards and 7 TDs, has been a difference-maker in the red zone. Denver’s offense ranks 11th in both passing and total yards per game, while putting up 24.1 PPG, good for 13th in the league.

But it’s the defense that’s really driving Denver’s success, which should be interesting to watch against a 3rd-string QB. The Broncos rank 5th in scoring defense, allowing just 19.7 PPG, and 4th in YPG. They’re especially stout against the run, giving up only 90.2 yards per game, 2nd-best in the NFL. That matters even more tonight against a Kansas City team likely to lean on Kareem Hunt, who has 559 rushing yards and 8 TDs and short throws.

Nik Bonitto has 12.5 sacks to his name, and the team as a whole leads the NFL with 63 total sacks, which is double what Kansas City has managed. That pressure could be overwhelming for Oladokun, who was sacked 4 times last week in just over a half of action after taking over for Minshew.

Chiefs in Crisis Mode

This is not the Chiefs team that fans are used to after a 10-year playoff run. The 9-time defending AFC West champions have not only lost the division already, but they’re not even going to the playoffs on a wild-card seed. And now they’re down to Chris Oladokun, a former 7th-rounder with almost no NFL experience.

Last week, he came in against the Titans and went 11-for-16 for 111 yards. But he also took 4 sacks and was clearly overwhelmed by Tennessee’s defensive front. Now he faces a Denver defense that’s even faster, much better, and far more aggressive. Kansas City’s offensive line hasn’t protected well, and things likely get worse without a mobile quarterback like Mahomes or Minshew.

Travis Kelce remains the top target, with 803 yards and 5 TDs on the season. But with a 3rd-string quarterback, even Kelce’s upside is capped. There’s just no rhythm or consistency in this offense. In the last 3 weeks, Kansas City has scored 10, 13, and 9 points.

What’s even worse for the Chiefs is that the defense has completely fallen off. They rank just 21st in sacks and 22nd in time of possession, which means they’re struggling to get off the field. The Chiefs do allow just 19.6 PPG, but that number is skewed by early-season games with Mahomes controlling tempo and keeping the team in games. In recent weeks, they’ve allowed 31 to Dallas, 20 to Houston, and 26 to Tennessee. Overall, everything is pointing to a Broncos domination, which the NFL probably wasn’t expecting when they made this year’s Christmas schedule.

Prediction — Broncos Roll Big

This is a mismatch in every phase, and it’s not even close. Denver has the better quarterback, better defense, more to play for, and better recent form. Kansas City is simply a mess all over the field. Offensively, they’re undoubtedly limited and relying on a practice squad quarterback against a top-5 defense. It’s almost as if it couldn’t get worse for a team that is used to going to the Super Bowl on a regular basis.

The Broncos have already beaten Kansas City once this season — 22-19 back on November 16 — and that was with Mahomes starting. Now, Denver gets them with a raw 3rd-stringer. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs can even stay close, unless the Broncos completely self-destruct, which is extremely unlikely.

Denver’s pass rush is undoubtedly too much for Oladokun. The Broncos’ run defense will take Kareem Hunt out of the game. And Bo Nix should be able to play it safe while still hitting a few big plays against a defense that’s been wearing down.

• Prediction: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
• Best Bet: Broncos -13

This is a steep number, but when you look at how these teams are standing right now, it’s one worth trusting. Denver is healthier, hotter, and vastly more complete. The quarterback gap is probably the biggest of the year, and with the Chiefs likely unable to move the ball, the Broncos will get plenty of chances to extend their lead. Lay the points as Denver should win by 2+ TDs.