The Toronto Blue Jays are in a must-win scenario as they take on the Seattle Mariners for Game 4 of the ALCS tonight. With the Mariners holding a 2-1 series lead, Toronto needs a repeat of their insane Game 3 performance to stay alive, but even that’s a tall order.
After being outscored 13-4, Seattle will look to get back on track with Luis Castillo on the mound. But with the Blue Jays’ offense red-hot and Max Scherzer set to make his postseason debut, this matchup is packed with storylines.
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | +1.5 −204 | O 7.5 −105 | +105 |
| Mariners | −1.5 +164 | U 7.5 −116 | −127 |
The Mariners opened this game as -130 favorites on the moneyline, while the Blue Jays are priced near even around +105. The total is set at 7.5 runs, with slight juice toward the under at -116 compared to the over at -105, and the run line has Seattle -1.5 at +164 and Toronto +1.5 at -204. Despite last night’s big game for the Jays, the bookmakers are still holding onto the M’s.
Seattle has been dominant at home all year with a 51-30 record at T-Mobile Park. But Toronto holds the edge in the head-to-head matchup this season, winning 5 of the 9 meetings so far. But we all know that post-season ball changes everything.
Game 4 marks the 2nd postseason start for Luis Castillo, who threw 6 shutout innings in his Game 1 start. He allowed just 4 hits, walked none, and struck out 4 in a nicely polished, efficient performance. Castillo finished the regular season with a solid 11-8 record, a 3.54 ERA, and 162 Ks.
Toronto counters with Max Scherzer, who hasn’t pitched yet this postseason and had a shaky regular season by his standards. But nobody can deny the potential that Scherzer brings to the table. The veteran RHP went 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA and 82 strikeouts, but his playoff pedigree makes him a wild card in this matchup, it doesn’t seem that the bookmakers are buying it.
Let’s be honest — the Blue Jays’ bats are hot. They exploded for 13 runs on 18 hits in Game 3, including 5 yard bombs. George Springer led the way with 3 hits and 2 RBIs, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stayed scorching with another multi-hit night. Guerrero is now hitting an eye-popping .464 AVG in the postseason and shows no signs of slowing down.
Toronto has been the best-hitting team in the playoffs so far, as they’re leading all teams in average with a .300, slugging at .545, and OPS at .896. They’ve also launched 15 homers in just 7 playoff games. That power surge is proving tough for any pitching staff to contain — including one as solid as Seattle’s.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are showing a few cracks. They may have won Games 1 and 2, but in Game 3, they were completely outplayed on both sides of the ball, and now the Jays know their vulnerabilities. They gave up 18 hits, their bullpen got exposed, and their offense continues to be inconsistent. Seattle is hitting just .219 AVG in the postseason, good for 5th-worst among playoff teams. And while Cal Raleigh’s 60 regular-season homers and 125 RBIs are undoubtedly impressive, he’s one of the few consistent threats in a lineup that’s cooled off. Unless the Mariners get some help throughout their lineup, this could be the end of the road for them.
The Blue Jays also have the edge in recent form. Over their last 10 games, they’re 7-3 with a .301 AVG and a +30 run differential. The Mariners are 5-5 in that same stretch and have been outscored by 8 runs.
Despite all of the doom and gloom, Seattle’s one true advantage here is Castillo, who looked fantastic in Game 1. But if Toronto’s hitters keep swinging like they did in Game 3, not even Castillo — or the shaky bullpen — will be enough. And unless Scherzer completely implodes, which there’s a chance, the edge may lean toward the hotter offense.
One big red flag for Seattle is how much they’ve been giving up lately. In their 3 ALCS games so far, they’ve allowed 17 runs. Sure, most came during that Game 3 schism, but that’s not what you want heading into a game where you’re trying to close the door on a talented lineup.
On the flip side, Toronto’s bullpen has been decent and doesn’t need to do much more than hold a lead if their bats stay hot early on in the game. And if Scherzer can give 5 solid innings — even 4 would be nice with minimal damage — Toronto is in a great spot to finish it up.
Also keep an eye on Bo Bichette, who quietly continues to be a postseason rock. He’s batting .311 with 94 RBIs on the season and has been steady throughout October. Combine that with Guerrero Jr. and Springer doing their parts, and this offense might be too much to contain.
This game is a toss-up on paper, but momentum and form say otherwise. The Blue Jays looked completely locked in during Game 3, and that wasn’t a fluke. It’s just too much to ignore. Their offense has been the best in the postseason, and the Mariners’ bats just can’t match that pace right now.
Even with Castillo on the bump, the Mariners are playing catch-up offensively. Scherzer is a gamble, of course, but it’s one worth taking given Toronto’s overall playoff edge in every offensive category. On top of that, this is still Scherzer we’re talking about. If he finds his old form, he could be untouchable.
We’re looking for the Blue Jays to even the series behind another big night from their core hitters and the bullpen. We also love the fact that the Blue Jays are a sneaky plus-money dog heading into this one.
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