Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet

The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians wrap up their 6-game season series this afternoon at Progressive Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 PM ET, and the rubber match sets up an even showdown with the Blue Jays looking to even things out. The Guardians now lead the series 3-2 after outlasting the Jays in extra innings last night, 5-4. 

With both teams fighting for positioning in their divisions, this series finale carries some weight. This might be the last time these 2 teams see each other this season.

Game Details and Probable Pitchers

It’ll be a righty-vs-righty matchup with Kevin Gausman taking the bump for Toronto and Tanner Bibee getting the ball for Cleveland. 

Gausman enters at 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA, but we feel that those numbers don’t tell the full story. He’s been struggling through June, giving up a dismal 17 earned runs in just 20 innings over his 4 starts. In his last outing against the Diamondbacks, Gausman was shelled for 7 runs in just 4.1 innings of work. The month hasn’t been kind to him — his June ERA sits at a bloated 7.65, and he’s walked 12 batters in that stretch. The Guardians have their struggles, but it won’t take much to get through him today.

Bibee, on the other hand, has quietly been very effective for Cleveland despite a 4-7 record. His 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP show a bit more stability even if the numbers aren’t all that great. More importantly, Bibee has tossed 3 straight quality starts this month, highlighted by 8 innings of one-run ball against Oakland. Yes, we get it; it’s the Athletics, but it’s still a confidence booster. He’s only given up 5 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings and has shown the ability to limit walks and go deep into games. With the Guardians’ bullpen rested, Bibee just needs to keep it close.

Betting Odds and Market Info

The bookmakers have Cleveland as slight -121 favorites on the moneyline, while Toronto comes in nearly even at -101. The total is set at 8 runs flat, with the overpriced at -103 and the under slightly favored at -117. On the run line, the Blue Jays are +158 to cover -1.5, while the Guardians are -195 to cover +1.5.

These odds show how tight this game is expected to be, but also tell us that Cleveland has a pitching edge — especially later in the game.

Analysis and Matchup Breakdown

This is shaping up to be one of the more competitive matchups of the day. The Blue Jays, sitting at 42-37, are 3rd in the AL East, just 3.5 games behind New York. They’re still pushing and trying to remain relevant. The Guardians, sitting at 40-38, are clinging to 2nd in the AL Central but really focusing on a wild card slot. Both teams have similar win percentages and nearly identical runs scored total over the last 10 games.

Cleveland’s been the slightly better club in this head-to-head matchup. They took 2 of 3 from Toronto back in May, and with yesterday’s win in extras, they now hold a 3-2 season lead. Both clubs are 3-2 over their last 5, but the key separator could be the starting pitching matchup.

Kevin Gausman has been a liability in June. Opposing batters are hitting .311 OBA against him this month, and he hasn’t made it past the 5th inning in any of his last 4 starts. He’s been giving up both hits and walks in droves, allowing a WHIP over 2.00 this month. That’s not going to cut it against a disciplined Guardians lineup that doesn’t strike out often and looking to make a statement in this AL showdown.

Tanner Bibee has done exactly what you’d want from a young starter — limiting the damage, attacking the zone, and going deep into games. His control has improved with just 5 walks in his 4 June starts, and he’s struck out 25 batters in 25.2 innings this month. He’s also allowed just 2 HRs over that span, which is a big deal considering Toronto’s power potential.

Offensively, both teams have some firepower. Jose Ramirez leads Cleveland across the board with a.318 AVG, 13 HRs, and 38 RBIs, and he’s been consistent no matter the matchup. For Toronto, George Springer and Bo Bichette lead the charge, both with 38+ RBI. Bichette has driven in 48 while hitting .276, but the Jays have struggled for consistency at the plate. They’ve only scored 4 or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toronto leads Cleveland in most offensive stats this season which includes batting average (.256 to .231), slugging (.400 to .373), and runs (344 to 297). But in this series, Cleveland has done a better job capitalizing with runners on base, and they’ve now outscored Toronto 24-26 over 5 games. It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s starting to show a trend that they’re the better team here.

Toronto’s bullpen has been shaky — at best. They’ve issued more walks and posted a higher WHIP compared to Cleveland, especially late in games. Combine that with Bibee’s ability to keep the score low, and Cleveland should have the edge if this game is close going into the 6th inning or later.

Prediction and Best Bet

If this were a pure offensive showdown, you could make the case for Toronto. But baseball games in late June are often won on the mound, and that’s where we see Cleveland has the advantage. Gausman is in the middle of his worst month of the season, possibly his career, and Bibee has been trending in the opposite direction.

Add in Cleveland’s home-field edge, their 3-2 lead in the season series, and better recent bullpen performance, and the Guardians should find a way to close this one out, though probably in another tight game.

• Blue Jays vs Guardians Prediction: Guardians 4, Blue Jays 3
• Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -121

Bibee’s been getting deep into games and has punched out 6+ in 3 of his last 4 starts. Against a Toronto lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts per game, this number has real value. Cash this bet all day long.