Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Prediction and Expert Analysis

The Columbus Blue Jackets head to PPG Paints Arena to face off against the Pittsburgh Penguins in a big Metropolitan Division matchup tonight.

Despite Columbus winning the first 2 games this season, the Penguins enter as the slight favorite at -135, with Columbus as a +115 underdog. Given the trajectory of these teams and their previous matchups, these odds surprised us.

With the Penguins still fighting to stay relevant in the Eastern Conference wild-card race and the Jackets clawing for a wild-card slot, this game carries serious implications.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are looking to snap a 4-game losing streak and complete a season sweep of their division rivals. 

The oddsmakers favor Pittsburgh, but Columbus has already proven twice this season that they can handle the Penguins.

This might be the lone NHL game on the slate tonight, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a bet to be made. Let’s dig in and see what these teams are working on within their 3rd and final matchup of the season.

Betting Odds and Trends

The Penguins have dominated Columbus historically when playing at home, winning 18 of the last 19 meetings at PPG Paints Arena. That’s most likely a major reason why Pittsburgh is still favored, even though Columbus has already beaten them twice this season and one of those was in Pittsburgh back in January.

However, recent trends tell us that Columbus is in a good spot to pull off the upset again.

The Blue Jackets won both matchups earlier this season, outscoring Pittsburgh 10-5. In the first meeting, they dominated 6-2, and in the second game, they edged out a 4-3 shootout. That’s why Columbus at +115 on the moneyline is looking like some serious value for bettors.

One interesting trend worth noting is that the underdog has won the 1st period in each of the Penguins’ last 7 home games. That means Columbus at +225 to win the 1st period could be a sneaky good bet if you’re into game props, especially considering Pittsburgh’s recent habit of slow starts.

On top of that, the over 1.5 goals in the first period has hit in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games against Eastern Conference teams. That suggests an early flurry of offense is likely, which could play into Columbus’ favor if they can set the tone in the opening minutes.

Columbus’ Recent Struggles But Season-Long Edge Over Pittsburgh

The Blue Jackets enter this matchup on a 5-game skid. They’ve scored only 4 total goals across those games, but 3 of them were shutout losses. That’s a bit concerning to us, but their overall season scoring average of 3.15 goals per game is still higher than Pittsburgh’s at 2.90. If Columbus can get back on track, the Pens could be in trouble.

A big part of Columbus’ offense comes from Zach Werenski. He leads the team with 69 points spanning 49 assists and 20 goals. Kirill Marchenko has been the Blue Jackets’ most consistent goal-scorer, netting 25 goals this season. However, he hasn’t put up a single point in the last 4 games and the entire Columbus offense has struggled to generate quality chances during their recent skid.

As for the blue line, Columbus’ goaltending has been hit or miss. Elvis Merzlikins with a 3.00 GAA and .897 SV% has been solid at times but generally inconsistent overall. However, he has been good against Pittsburgh this season, allowing just five total goals in the 2 prior matchups. He’s not elite, but he can get the job done.

If Columbus can rediscover their scoring touch, their past success against Pittsburgh’s weak defense and goaltending could give them a very good shot at sweeping the season series.

Pittsburgh’s Offensive Leaders But Questionable Goaltending

The Penguins have been slightly better in their recent games. They’ve gone 5-4-1 in their last 10, compared to Columbus’ 3-6-1 record. Though, the Penguins still have not been a great team throughout the season.

Their offense is still powered by Sidney Crosby, who leads the team with 74 points over 24 goals and 50 assists. Rickard Rakell and his 16 goals and Evgeni Malkin with 42 points have also contributed a bit in the zone, though secondary scoring has been inconsistent.

One key player to watch is Evgeni Malkin. He has recorded at least 1 point in 14 of his last 15 home games against Columbus. If Pittsburgh’s offense gets going early, he will most likely be involved in the action.

However, the biggest issue for Pittsburgh remains their goaltending and it’s easy to see why. Both Alex Nedeljkovic with a 3.17 GAA and .891 SV% and Tristan Jarry with his 3.13 GAA and .895 SV% have struggled quite a bit this season. In both matchups against Columbus, the Penguins’ netminders failed to contain the Blue Jackets’ offense. That’s a key reason why Columbus has outscored Pittsburgh 10-5 in the season series.

If Columbus can take advantage of Pittsburgh’s shaky goaltending, they could find themselves in control of this game once again.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is a must-win game for both teams, but even more so for Columbus as they’re still in the playoff race and looking to snap their losing streak. Columbus has already proven twice that they can beat Pittsburgh and they’re hungry to get some goals.

Even with their recent struggles, the Blue Jackets have shown they can exploit Pittsburgh’s weak goaltending. The Penguins’ strong home record against Columbus is definitely a factor, but historical trends don’t always reflect the current season’s reality and that’s what we like about this bet.

If Columbus can come out aggressive and test Pittsburgh’s goalies early, they’ll have a great chance to notch their 3rd win over the Penguins this season.

• HelloRookie’s Prediction: Blue Jackets 4, Penguins 3
• Best Bet: Columbus Blue Jackets ML (+115)

Columbus at +115 on the moneyline is great value considering they’ve already beaten Pittsburgh twice. If you’re looking for some additional bets to throw down, you might want to consider Columbus to win the first period at +225, given Pittsburgh’s trend of slow starts at home.

For those looking at a goal total bet, over 6.5 goals at +100 could be worth a shot, considering past matchups between these two teams have seen plenty of scoring.

We fully expect Columbus to complete the season sweep and keep Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes in serious jeopardy.