Bills vs Patriots Prediction — AFC East Title on the Line in Week 15

The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills this afternoon in what just might be the defining moment of the AFC East race. It’s a classic matchup between an 11-2 Patriots squad riding a massive 10-game win streak, and a 9-4 Bills team that just put up 39 points on Cincinnati. The stakes are a division crown for New England or a power shift if Buffalo claws its way back into 1st place. There’s a lot on the line for both teams.

Game Info and Betting Odds

This one kicks off at 12:00 PM CST on CBS from Gillette Stadium. Buffalo is a slight 1-point favorite on the road, which says a lot considering the Patriots are 18-5 all-time at home against the Bills in the Belichick/Brady era — and still fairly strong under Vrabel. The total is set at 49.5, which tells us that the bookmakers expect a decent amount of scoring, and we can see why.

Buffalo comes in 9-4 straight up and 6-7 ATS. The Patriots are 11-2, and a highly profitable 8-4-1 ATS. The last meeting was a wild one where New England edged Buffalo — in Buffalo — 23-20 back in Week 5. With that said, the bookmakers are obviously drawing on the fact that Buffalo has been putting up some serious points lately.

Recent Form, Team Stats, and Matchup Breakdown

There’s no doubt that Buffalo is heating up. The Bills have won 2 straight, crushing Pittsburgh and outlasting Cincinnati in a shootout that went all the way to 39-34. Josh Allen has 3,083 passing yards and 22 TDs on the year, and when he doesn’t turn it over, the Bills win — all the time — he’s now 6-0 this season with 0 giveaways. That stat alone should terrify the Patriots’ defense.

James Cook III is without a doubt the league’s top rusher by yardage with a hefty 1,308 yards, averaging 100.6 per game at 5.3 YPC. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing yards per game and is 2nd in total offense. Over their last 2 games, they’ve rushed for 432 yards combined. That’s the identity now — Allen’s arm mixed with a bruising run game.

On defense, the Bills are more of a mixed bag. They’re top-10 in yards allowed, but give up 135.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks way down at 28th. That’s a huge concern against a Patriots team that can run it well enough with Tyrone Henderson and his 625 yards and 5 TDs, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

New England, meanwhile, is quietly elite, though it’s not a surprise anymore. They’ve won 10 straight games, haven’t allowed 23+ points during that stretch, and are averaging just under 30 PPG on offense. The defense is ranked 3rd against the run and 5th in scoring, which lines up directly with Buffalo’s ground-heavy attack, and if anyone’s going to test that, it’s Vrabel’s defensive front.

Drake Maye is having a breakout second season, and when you look at his numbers — 3,412 yards, 23 TDs, 6 picks, and a 71.5% completion rate — it’s easy to see why. He tops the league. His rapport with Stefon Diggs, who has 705 yards, Hunter Henry, and his 610 yards has turned the Patriots into a top-tier passing offense. They’re 2nd in passing yards per game, while Buffalo allows the 2nd-fewest.

The Patriots’ last 5 games include wins over the Giants, Bengals, Jets, Bucs, and Falcons. None of those teams is elite, but note that their defense hasn’t flinched, and their offense has gotten more efficient. Buffalo’s wins over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were nonetheless impressive, but the loss to Houston three weeks ago still lingers.

Prediction — Patriots Punch Their Playoff Ticket

This game is going to be won in the trenches and by whichever QB takes care of the football. On that front, it’s hard to trust Josh Allen on the road against a defense that ranks in the top 5 in scoring, total yards, and rushing yards allowed. New England already beat Buffalo once this season, and that was in Buffalo.

Since that Week 5 matchup, Drake Maye has taken another step, while Allen continues to be turnover-prone, then add in the Patriots’ edge at home, their consistency on both sides of the ball, and their dominance in the red zone, and it’s hard to make any pick against them — especially with history and momentum on their side.

• Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 24
• Best Bet: Patriots +1

New England is at home, riding a 10-game winning streak, and already has a win over Buffalo this season, so getting a point is a gift in this game. The Patriots are a little more balanced, healthier in the trenches, and playing smarter football. Take the point or just grab the moneyline — it’s the better side.