Bills vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Odds, and Our Best Bet for Monday Night Football

The Buffalo Bills are heading to Atlanta to face the Falcons in the first matchup of a MNF doubleheader. With Buffalo looking to bounce back from a close loss to New England and Atlanta riding a win over Washington, both teams have something to prove. But only one of these squads looks built for the long haul — and for Monday night football.

Game Details and Betting Odds

Buffalo comes into this one as the betting favorite on the road, sitting at -4.5 with odds of -108 on the spread and -218 on the moneyline. The Falcons are the underdogs at +4.5 (-112) and +180 to win outright. The over/under is set at 49.5, with -118 juice on the over and -102 on the under.

The bookmakers obviously see Buffalo as the stronger, more complete team — and for good reason, once you start looking at some of the stats.

Offensive and Defensive Analysis

The Bills have one of the best offenses in football. They’re putting up 30.6 points per game, which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. Their 404.2 YPG leads the league, and they’re also 1st in time of possession with 34:10 and 2nd in rushing yards per game with 154.4. Simply put, this team can move the ball at will and wear defenses down.

Josh Allen is doing it all as he’s thrown for 1,217 yards on 70.4% passing with 9 TDs and just 2 interceptions. He’s also added 212 yards and 3 scores on the ground, which obviously makes him a nightmare for defenses. His go-to weapon has been TE Dalton Kincaid, who leads the team with 287 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns on just 20 catches. That’s elite efficiency by most standards for tight ends..

James Cook III has developed into a legit dual-threat back, rushing for 450 yards and 5 TDs on 90 carries. He’s averaging a solid 5.0 YPC, and defenses haven’t found a good answer for him yet. He’s also helping keep the offense on schedule, which is a big reason why Buffalo is converting 44.1% of 3rd downs, 7th-best in the NFL.

Atlanta’s defense, though, is no slouch, and they’ll definitely be a challenge for the dominant Bills. They rank 1st in total yards allowed with 244.0, 1st in rushing yards allowed with 109.0, and 3rd in passing yards allowed with 135.0. Safety Jessie Bates III has led a disciplined secondary with 3 interceptions, and the Falcons’ pass rush — led by Zach Harrison’s 2.5 sacks — has been disruptive enough to cause problems.

The biggest problem is that the Falcons haven’t seen a team like the Bills yet. Their schedule has included Carolina, Washington, and Minnesota — none of whom are top-10 offenses. Against playoff-caliber teams like Dallas and Tampa Bay, they’ve given up 31 and 23 points, respectively. That’s not to say they won’t be able to figure out the Bills, but it’s a tall order.

Offensively, Atlanta is still trying to figure things out. They’re scoring just 19.0 PPG, 27th in the league, and averaging only 373.3 YPG. Michael Penix Jr. has been somewhat solid but definitely unspectacular, throwing for 918 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 picks on 62.4% passing. He’s taken 5 sacks and hasn’t consistently stretched the field as they’d hoped.

The Falcons lean heavily on Bijan Robinson, who leads the team in both rushing with 314 yards and receiving with 270 yards. But the reliance on one player to carry the offense isn’t sustainable, especially against a Bills defense that allows just 145.6 rushing yards per game — 2nd in the league. They don’t have the depth to stretch the Bill’s defense.

What really makes Buffalo dangerous is that their defense is quietly top-tier, too. They rank 7th in total yards allowed with 299.6 and 2nd in passing yards allowed with 154.0. They’ve recorded 13 sacks and are limiting big plays, forcing teams into long drives that often stall out and end up in a punt. Linebacker Terrel Bernard leads the way with 26 tackles, and DaQuan Jones has been a force up front with 2 sacks.

Buffalo’s only real blemish is last week’s surprising 23-20 home loss to the Patriots. But prior to that, they rattled off 4 straight wins, scoring at least 30 points in all of them — including double-digit wins over the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints. They’re the more complete team all around.

Atlanta is just 2-2 in their last 4 games, and both wins came at home against weaker opponents. They were shut out 30-0 in Carolina and struggled to score more than 23 in any of their losses. This is simply not an offense built to play from behind.

Prediction and Best Bet

We have to admit that the Falcons have a stingy defense, but they’re going to have their hands full trying to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills’ balanced attack. Atlanta doesn’t have the firepower to keep up if this turns into a shootout, and unless their defense can force turnovers or get a score themselves, the offense may not be able to do enough to keep up.

We expect Buffalo to bounce back strong after their stumble last week. The matchup favors them in nearly every phase — they’re more explosive, more efficient, and more experienced in big games. We’re looking for them to set the tone early and keep the Falcons chasing for all 4 quarters.

• Score Prediction: Bills 27, Falcons 17
• Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -4.5

This line gives you value on a team that’s been scoring 30+ on a regular basis. Buffalo is built to control games and wear teams down, while Atlanta hasn’t shown it can hang with top-tier offenses, and Buffalo has the edge on both sides of the ball. We only see this game going one way, and the Bills are just too dominant for a simple moneyline bet.