Best NFL Player Props for Christmas Day

With the holiday season in full force, we did the only logical thing we could think of in preparation: We went down a rabbit hole in search of an answer to whether three Christmas Day games, specifically on a Monday, would be a league record. As it turns out, it is!

Seven games have been played within those parameters in NFL history. The first did not occur until 1989, with the most recent coming in 2017. There have been two Christmas Day doubleheaders on Mondays, in 2006 and 2017. Not only will football fans who celebrate get to wake up on one of the happiest days of the year and indulge in the holiday spirit, they’ll also be experiencing history when three pro football games are played on Monday, December 25.

The Eagles have the distinction of being involved the last two times this phenomenon occurred. They won in Dallas 23-7 in 2006 and defeated Oakland at home in 2017 by a score of 19-10. This Christmas, Philly is hosting the Giants as 13.5-point favorites after dropping three in a row in the mid-afternoon timeslot.

That game is sandwiched between the early kickoff, where Kansas City (-10) plays Las Vegas in Arrowhead in the 1 pm ET window, and the Monday Night Football matchup that all eyes across the league will clamber to watch, Baltimore traveling to San Francisco. The Ravens are 5-point dogs in only their second time not being favored during an excellent 2023 season. The 49ers are 3-3 ATS as a home favorite this year.

We added a win and a loss apiece to our record in last week’s Seahawks’ upset over the Eagles, landing our run on prop plays since Week 7 at 15-7. Our best bet card for this exciting group of games is presented next. Happy Holidays and best of luck!

Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-148 @ FanDuel)

• Mahomes has played 11 games against the Raiders in his career. In those matchups, he averaged 2.6 TD passes and 303.5 yards passing while his team has gone 10-1 on the field.
• The two-time MVP has thrown two or more TD passes against Las Vegas/Oakland nine of the 11 times he’s faced them.
• Las Vegas’ defense has padded their passing numbers against inferior opponents this season. In games against Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tua Tagovailoa, each player threw multiple TD passes against this D.
• FanDuel’s odds on this prop are significantly better than over a dozen of the more popular, nationally available outlets.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 14.5 Rushing Attempts(-130 @ DraftKings)

• Barkley’s rush volume has continued to diminish this season as the Giants’ offense adapts to their limitations in 2023. After posting 110 carries over the first five games, he’s seen 84 attempts in six games since and only eclipsed 14 twice.
• Barkley hasn’t gotten 15+ carries against the Eagles since 2019.
• The Eagles’ run defense has been exposed in recent weeks by strong opponents, but the Giants are a below-average team at making gains on the ground (18th in yards/rush).

Isaiah Likely OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)

• Likely has put together the best three-game stretch of his young career and is in a three-way battle for Lamar Jackson’s favorite target in that stretch.
• Since a November 26 game against the Chargers, Likely is second on the team in targets (19), first in catches (14) and receiving yards (193), and tied for a team-high two receiving touchdowns.
• He has seen at least six targets in three straight games and hauled in a TD and a pass of 25+ yards in his last two.
• San Francisco’s defense has been vulnerable to tight ends in the last two weeks. The Cardinals and Seahawks combined tight end groups caught 16 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown in that span, including Trey McBride going for 10 catches and 102 yards last Sunday.