It’s not that we should never bet an over, but it didn’t work out for us in Week 7. The Steelers and Rams saved 29 of their combined 41 points scored for the second half of their matchup.
Pittsburgh scored touchdowns on three of four drives before killing five and a half minutes of clock on ten plays to end the game without giving Matt Stafford another chance. The Rams missed two field goals, including one that hit the upright in the first half, and that’s gambling for you.
We did have a sweat-free winner with the under in Commanders-Giants. As a Penn State and Washington fan, my teams went a combined 2-for-31 on third downs last weekend. Fun stuff!
We at least appreciate the returned cash in our bankroll, and with the 1-1 result in Week 7, our 2023 season-long NFL record is now 9-5-1 through 15 picks.
No teams are off this week, so fans and bettors get to choose from 13 games on Sunday afternoon amid a packed schedule.
Five teams will put their league-leading 5-2 ATS records on the line, including Kansas City being an 8-point road favorite in Denver, the Dolphins favored by 9.5 points against the Pats at home, and the Ravens being billed as favorites of 8.5 points in Arizona.
The Jags are also favored, but only by 2.5 points in Pittsburgh during the 1 p.m. window. Only one team has yet to cover a spread in 2023: the Carolina Panthers. Frank Reich’s unit will host DeMeco Ryans’ Texans in a meeting of the first two picks from this spring’s NFL Draft class.
Houston’s CJ Stroud is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and currently ranks fourth in passing yards per game and yards per attempt among qualified QBs. Bryce Young has struggled, ranking dead-last in QBR and falling to +7500 odds to win OROY.
With a full schedule of games to choose from, we hope to increase our win rate in Week 8. Our best bets are outlined next.
The Meadowlands Derby features a pair of teams who had higher expectations for the 2023 season, but there is still room for something to be salvaged.
The 3-3 Jets are coming off an unexpected win over Philadelphia and a bye week, while the Giants stifled the Commanders last week to put a second tally in the win column after a 1-5 start.
This matchup is competing with Falcons-Titans for the lowest total on the board, but we like the side here. Tyrod Taylor threw for 279 yards and a pair of first-half touchdowns in an impressive spot start while Daniel Jones continues to recover from a neck injury.
We prefer Taylor as the better option based on that performance. With a low total and two teams that will struggle to pull away from each other on the scoreboard, we like the team getting a field goal.
The Bengals return from their bye week in the basement of the AFC North and make the trip to San Francisco for one of the toughest games on their schedule.
The Niners have lost back-to-back games to Cleveland and Minnesota while scoring 17 points in each and have looked vulnerable since blowing out Dallas on October 8.
Despite allowing 452 total yards to Cousins and the Vikings in Week 7, San Fran stifled their ground game and forced multiple field goal attempts from their own goal line.
Cincinnati has converted only 33% of their red zone trips into touchdowns on the road this season, and we see this contest being another one full of field goals.
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