Avalanche vs Senators Prediction — Colorado Looks to Keep Rolling After Heated First Matchup

The Colorado Avalanche is heading out to Ottawa for tonight’s showdown with the Senators in what is looking to be a gritty, high-stakes game despite where these teams are in the standings. The last time these two teams met, it ended in pure chaos — and an 8-2 beatdown by the Avs. With the Avs trying to keep their lead in the Western Conference and the Sens doing everything they can to salvage the season, we expect emotion, intensity, and plenty of fireworks.

Game Details and Odds

The Avalanche come in riding high with a league-best 35-6-9 record and 79 points, while Ottawa and their 24-21-7 record are still searching for consistency in the midst of the Atlantic Division. Sure, Ottawa is currently last in the Atlantic, but they still have a winning record, and they’re just a couple of wins out from being in the middle of the pack. 

The puck drops at 7:30 PM ET at the Canadian Tire Centre, with the game airing on ESPN+ and Altitude Sports.

Colorado is favored right around -162 on the moneyline, while Ottawa is listed at +136. The total sits at 6.5 goals, with the over priced near even money, which means the bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.

This is the 2nd and final meeting between these teams this season, as Colorado dominated the first game 8-2, with Josh Manson scoring a pair and tensions running high after Brady Tkachuk bowled over Scott Wedgewood, injuring the Avalanche goalie. That hit, along with multiple scrums and fights, has set the stage for a possible rematch in every sense of the word.

This game is without a mismatch, but it is definitely the one to watch tonight.

Avalanche Hold the Edge – On and Off the Ice

Let’s be clear — the Avalanche is the most elite team. They lead the NHL in goals with 197 and assists with 349, and they’ve built a monstrous +80 goal differential, the best in the league. Nathan MacKinnon continues to dominate with 88 points spanning 38 goals and 50 helpers, while Brock Nelson is heating up as well, fresh off a hatty in the 4-1 win over Toronto.

Colorado’s offensive firepower is more than simply scoring in bunches — it’s also about balance. Even with a modest 15.9% power play success rate, only 27th in the league, they’ve still averaged 3.94 GF/G. That’s because they drive play at 5-on-5 better than almost anyone, and they lead the league in shot volume at 34.9 per game.

Defensively, they’re just as tight. The Avs allow only 2.34 GAA and have the best PK unit in the league at 84.1%. Despite injuries to some of their best blueliners like Devon Toews and Ross Colton, Colorado still ranks 1st in fewest goals against with 117 and gives up just 26.8 shots per game. That defense is anchored by Scott Wedgewood with a .918 SV% and Mackenzie Blackwood with his .911 SV%.

Meanwhile, as you might expect, Ottawa’s situation is far more volatile.

Senators Can Score, But Can’t Stop the Bleeding

To be frank, Ottawa has some weapons. Tim Stutzle and his 23 goals and 30 assists, and Jake Sanderson with 31 assists, provide top-end talent, and Brady Tkachuk will always be a physical force. The Senators just dismantled Vegas 7-1 a couple of nights ago, so they’re capable of big performances when they catch fire. We’re not so sure that the Vegas game was a turning point for them, but it underscores their potential.

They rank 12th in goals with 171 and 5th in assists with 308, and their 22.8% power play is actually one of the league’s better units. But that’s just half of the battle, and that’s where the good news stops.

Their defensive metrics are pretty rough. Ottawa allows 3.35 GAA, ranking near the bottom of the league, their PK sits dead last at 72.2%, and they take way too many penalties as they have the 7th-most in the league with 533 PIMs. Against a high-powered, fast-moving team like Colorado, that’s a recipe for disaster.

The goaltending hasn’t helped much either. Linus Ullmark has a 2.95 GAA and .881 SV%, while James Reimer owns a brutal 3.32 GAA and .871 SV%. Both are well below the league averages, and neither has inspired much confidence during close games.

Ottawa is 12-10-4 at home and just 4-10-3 when its opponent takes fewer penalties. That’s a troubling stat against a disciplined team like Colorado, which ranks dead last in PIMs. Basically, if this game gets physical, Colorado won’t blink, and the Senators will be left in the cold.

Prediction — Avalanche Sweep Season Series with Another Statement Win

The Senators are, without a doubt, tough at home and capable of putting up goals in spurts. But against Colorado, they just don’t match up, and it’s not even close. The Avalanche beat them 8-2 in the first meeting for a reason. Even without Devon Toews, Colorado brings size, speed, and smarts — and now they’ve even recently added Keaton Middleton to the lineup for extra muscle and protection.

Ottawa’s recent win over Vegas was nonetheless impressive, but Colorado is on another level. Their top-6 is deeper, their defensive structure is much tighter, and they have a huge edge in the crease. If the Senators want to turn this into a slugfest again, Middleton and Josh Manson are ready to send a message.

We expect Colorado to take control of this one early and never look back.

• Prediction: Avalanche 5, Senators 3
• Best Bet: Avalanche -1.5 at +154

There’s some seriously great value on the puck line for tonight’s game. The Avs have covered in big wins already this season — including that 8-2 drubbing of Ottawa in their first matchup. With a deeper lineup, better goaltending, and a motivation to finish the sweep with authority, it’s no surprise that we expect them to win by 2+ goals again.