Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Prediction: Colorado Plays Without Makar but Still Holds the Throne

Few matchups in the final week of the NHL regular season carry more intrigue than the Vegas Golden Knights visiting Ball Arena on Saturday night at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche (51-16-10, 112 points) are the runaway best team in the NHL and are locking up the Presidents’ Trophy and the top overall seed in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Vegas (36-26-16, 82 points) is sitting third in the Pacific Division and has its own playoff positioning to protect heading into the postseason. For the Golden Knights, a win here is a confidence-builder ahead of a first-round matchup that now looks like it will be against the Anaheim Ducks. For the Avalanche, it is about finishing the regular season healthy and in rhythm.

There is one enormous asterisk entering this game: Colorado is playing without its best defenseman. Cale Makar is out with an upper-body injury and is not expected to return until at least April 13. The Avalanche are also missing center Nazem Kadri due to a finger injury. Those are two significant contributors, and their absence genuinely narrows the gap between these teams from what the standings imply. That said, the Avalanche have enough talent up and down their roster — led by Nathan MacKinnon, who already has 51 goals this season — to handle most opponents even shorthanded.

Vegas Comes In With Real Playoff Energy

The Golden Knights are not just playing out the string. They have gone 5-3-2 in their last 10 games, which represents a solid push toward the playoffs, and Mark Stone appears close to returning from a day-to-day issue that has kept him out recently. Vegas is scoring 3.18 goals per game this season and allowing 2.86, good for a modest but respectable positive goal differential. They were dominant in a 5-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers just a week ago, which demonstrated their ceiling when the offense is clicking. Adin Hill has been serviceable in goal this season, posting numbers that put Vegas in the middle of the NHL pack in terms of goaltending quality.

The moneyline has Colorado at -155 to -182 across major books, with Vegas pulling between +125 and +150 as the underdog. The puck line is Avalanche -1.5 at around +155 to +165, meaning Vegas is getting generous plus-money for the underdog spread. The total sits at 6.5 goals with the over at roughly even money (+102 to +108) and the under slightly favored. It is worth noting that the under has hit in four of Colorado’s last five home games, suggesting this could be a tighter, more defensive affair than the Avs’ scoring average would imply.

MacKinnon vs. a Golden Knights Defense That Has Struggled on the Road

Nathan MacKinnon’s 2025-26 season has been something to behold. His 51st goal of the season came in Colorado’s win over Calgary on April 8, and he continues to drive the Avalanche offense in ways that make them dangerous even without Makar quarterbacking the power play from the blue line. MacKinnon’s linemates Mikko Rantanen and whoever slots in alongside them have been consistent contributors, and Colorado’s team shooting percentage ranks among the best in the NHL at Ball Arena. The home altitude advantage is real, particularly for visiting teams traveling west late in the season.

Vegas does have weapons capable of exploiting Colorado’s makeshift defensive corps without Makar. Jack Eichel has been one of the more underappreciated offensive players in the Western Conference this season, and the Golden Knights’ ability to generate rush offense means Colorado’s backup defenders will need to be sharp in transition. Vegas’s power play has been operating above 21 percent efficiency this season, and if Colorado takes undisciplined penalties — something they can be prone to — the Golden Knights could make this a game.

The season series between these two clubs has heavily favored Colorado. The Avalanche swept the two regular season meetings by scores of 4-2 in October and 2-1 in a separate meeting, demonstrating consistent dominance over the Golden Knights even in games where Vegas was competitive. Vegas’s road record this season has been a weakness, particularly against top-end competition, and they enter this game having gone just 18-21 against the spread on the road this season.

Colorado’s penalty kill, ranked first in the NHL at 84.2 percent, is also a major factor. Even without Makar on the ice killing penalties, the Avalanche system is disciplined and structured enough to neutralize most power play units. Vegas will need to generate five-on-five offense to keep pace, and doing that against a Colorado team that allows the fewest high-danger chances in the Western Conference is a genuine challenge.

Prediction and Best Bet

Colorado wins this game. MacKinnon and the Avalanche offense is simply too potent for a Vegas team that has shown inconsistency away from T-Mobile Arena, and the home altitude advantage at Ball Arena compounds the challenge for a Golden Knights squad making a cross-conference trip. The Makar and Kadri absences are real concerns, but Colorado’s depth chart runs deep enough to weather a few games without their top players when facing a non-playoff-contending opponent.

• Prediction: Colorado Avalanche 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
• Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche moneyline (-155)

The Avalanche moneyline at -155 represents fair value for a team that has swept the season series, leads the NHL in goals per game at 3.73, and is playing in their own building in front of their home crowd. The absence of Makar shaves some of the expected margin, but it does not change the fundamental reality that Colorado is the best team in hockey right now and Vegas is a playoff bubble team fighting for positioning — not threatening a Presidents’ Trophy contender at home.