Alabama vs Indiana Prediction — Underdog Tide to Keep It Tight in Pasadena

The #1 Indiana Hoosiers enter the 2025 Rose Bowl as the top seed in the CFP. It’s easy to see why, as they’ve gone unbeaten and have the nation’s attention heading into this quarterfinal matchup with the #9 Alabama Crimson Tide. Most expect Indiana to win, but if you look a little deeper, Alabama has the firepower and game-changing QB play to make this a game that’s much closer than the odds suggest — and even pull the outright upset. You read that right, and we’ll show you why.

Game Details & Odds

Surprisingly enough, this will be the 1st ever meeting between these two storied programs. The game kicks off at 4 p.m. EST today in the historic Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California. Indiana opened as about a 6.5‑7 point favorite, with the over/under sitting near 47.5‑48.5 points. Bookmakers have Alabama as the underdog on the moneyline at roughly +200 while Indiana is around ‑245.

This line makes sense on the surface. Indiana is unbeaten and riding the momentum of a Big Ten title, and there’s no way anyone can discount that, especially after defeating Ohio. Alabama lost in the SEC Championship and only got here by staging a big comeback in its first playoff game of the year. However, if you’ve been betting on college football for any amount of time, you’ll know that lines sometimes miss the nuances of team makeup, matchup advantages, and coaching adjustments — and that sets up nicely for an upset potential here.

What’s On the Line

There’s no doubt that Indiana has had a historic season. They ended Ohio State’s reign of terror, finished undefeated, and earned the #1 seed convincingly. Their offense is balanced and efficient with Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, and their defense has been among the best at limiting big plays. They’ve proven they can win in tough, gritty, and physical games with slow, methodical drives.

Alabama came into the postseason with questions about its offense and run game, but came alive when it needed to against Oklahoma, ripping off 27 unanswered points to win 34‑24 and punch this Rose Bowl ticket. That comeback really showed 2 things, and that’s what will make this a game — Alabama doesn’t quit, and its offense can flip the switch when urgency hits.

This matchup is about contrasting styles. Indiana is methodical and efficient. Alabama is explosive and risky. If Alabama can get early stops and force Indiana out of its preferred tempo, this game gets tight fast, and Alabama knows how to play that game.

Momentum & Matchup Thoughts

Alabama’s strength is its offense, especially when Ty Simpson is on his game, which can be a tall task in some games. He’s shown the ability to beat teams with his arm and make big throws to his top receiver, Germie Bernard, in clutch moments. Simpson’s accuracy and leadership keep drive‑extending plays alive, especially when the run game is stagnant. If he protects the ball and doesn’t let Indiana’s pass rush disrupt rhythm too much, Alabama stays right in it. Just take a look at the first matchup he’s had against UGA, where he put up 280 yards and had 7.2 yards per pass. 

Teams that rely heavily on efficiency sometimes struggle when things get bumpy early. Indiana has been fantastic all season, but it has very little experience in coming from behind in high‑pressure playoff situations. Alabama has been there before. Their history in big games is long, and they know how to fight through adversity. They’re a team with grit and determination, and that matters when emotions run high in quarterfinals.

We also have to acknowledge that Indiana will be without key defensive lineman Stephen Daley, who suffered a serious leg injury in celebrations after the Big Ten title game. That’s a loss for the Hoosiers’ defensive front right before the playoff starts, and that will undoubtedly be a key point that Alabama exploits.

Picking Alabama

Here’s the key for this game — Alabama will keep this close from start to finish. They’ll mix their passing attack with timely runs, hit open receivers downfield, and lean on experience in pressure situations. Indiana is great, but they aren’t used to having to stop a comeback‑driven team with momentum on the line like this. They’re dealing with one of the best the SEC has to offer, and we don’t see them responding as they should.

If Alabama gets stops on 3rd down early, as unlikely as that seems against a team with the #1 3rd down efficiency in the nation, they’ll ride that confidence into halftime. If they protect the football, they’ll be in striking distance late. And this style of football — keep it tight, make plays when it matters — is Alabama’s bread and butter in big games.

This is far from a blowout. In fact, it’s tight enough that the Tide can win it outright in regulation.

• Prediction: Alabama 27, Indiana 24
• Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline at +200

This isn’t just picking the upset because it’s fun, but you really have to look at the styles of play and how each team handles adversity. Alabama has shown the ability to score quickly, respond under pressure, and win close games when the stakes are highest, but of course, they’ll have to play their best football of the year. Indiana is excellent, but they’ve never been in this exact kind of environment before. Back the Tide on the moneyline as this one stays tight to the end and swings Alabama’s way. If you’re not convinced of Alabama moving onto the next round of the CFP, then take them +7 at -108.