5 Best Home Run Futures Bets for MLB 2026 That Could Smash The Board

Spring training camps are finally open after a long winter, sluggers are taking live BP, and, of course, the futures markets at all of the sportsbooks are heating up.

The 2026 home run leaderboard is absolutely loaded. You have MVP winners, perennial contenders, a catcher coming off a 60-homer season, and a rookie who already looks like a franchise cornerstone. There’s definitely no shortage of long-ball storylines in this selection.

Player	Team	2025 HR	2025 AVG	2025 Games	2026 HR Leader Odds
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	53	.331	152	+350
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	55	.282	158	+400
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	56	.240	162	+800
Cal Raleigh	Seattle Mariners	60	.247	159	+900
Nick Kurtz	Oakland Athletics	36	.290	117	+1000

Aaron Judge — Betting On Peak Judge Again

• Odds: +350

Aaron Judge at +350 feels almost automatic, but when it comes to taking the HR crown, it is never that simple.

His 2025 season was absolutely absurd as he hit .331 with 53 knocks, 114 RBI, and a 1.144 OPS across 152 games. On top of that, he posted a .457 OBP and scored 137 runs, which ultimately earned him his 3rd AL MVP award. And no, we verified those numbers, and they’re not typos.

When Judge is healthy, he does not just lead the league in home runs — he threatens historic totals year after year.

In 2024, he hit 58, and then in 2025, he followed it with 53. That is back-to-back seasons 50+. He probably would have had 50+ in 2023 if it weren’t for missing a third of the season due to an injury. Very few players in baseball history can say that.

And that brings us to the only real concern we see with him — health. Late in 2025, he played through a slight right elbow flexor strain, and the Yankees subsequently shifted him into more DH days. The good news is that he did not need surgery, and he reported to camp healthy, which is the key detail.

If he is truly past the elbow issue, which we’re sure he is, you are betting on a 6’7” slugger in the heart of the Yankees lineup, in a park built for right-handed power. It’s a short porch and a big stage with tons of protection around him.

He does not need 162 games to get to 50. He just needs 145-155 healthy ones, and the rest of the league better watch out if he can go a full 162.

At +350, you are undoubtedly paying a premium, but if “peak Judge” shows up again, he is the most bankable 50-homer bat in the sport.

Shohei Ohtani — MVP Bat In A Loaded Lineup

• Odds: +400

Shohei Ohtani at +400 is right there with Judge, and it’s no surprise.

In 2025, he hit 55 dingers with a .282 AVG, and he added a massive run total and posted MVP numbers across the board. With numbers like that, he won the 2025 NL MVP unanimously.

And he did it while returning to the bump in midseason with limited work.

That is what makes this bet particularly interesting.

He threw just 47 regular-season innings with a 2.87 ERA and a solid 62 Ks. In October, he pitched again as the Dodgers chased — and won — another World Series title. Now the storyline entering 2026 is a full ramp-up as a true two-way player.

Sure, this has many asking if that cuts into his power output, which there’s a slight chance. But the Dodgers manage workloads as well as any team in the league, and he is surrounded by elite hitters. That lineup creates RBI and run chances every night.

He hit 54 in 2023 and then 55 in 2025 after taking a year off to recover. The power is now stable, and his swing decisions are elite. He does not sell out for home runs, yet somehow they just happen.

Dodger Stadium doesn’t hinder his chances any, and the NL West has hitter-friendly parks, so most parks won’t slow him down as he chases the HR title.

At +400, you are betting on a player who consistently lives in the 45-55 home run range when healthy, and that is exactly where you want to be in this race.

Kyle Schwarber — Volume, Pull Power, And 50-Homer Upside

• Odds: +800

Kyle Schwarber at +800 is a different kind of bet and not someone many thought would be on our list.

He hit 56 home runs in 2025, drove in 132 runs, and played all 162 games. His batting profile is as simple as it gets — he walks, pulls the ball in the air, and when he connects, it is loud.

His OPS was .928 and his average will always fluctuate, which is all part of the deal, but the long balls are what we care about here.

The big offseason note is stability. He re-signed with Philadelphia on a five-year, $150 million deal, which puts him in the same park, in the same role, with the same lineup context.

Citizens Bank Park is friendly to left-handed power with a distance of 330’ to the right field pole, and Schwarber knows how to use it.

He has now hit 46, 47, and 56 home runs in recent full seasons, and we can all agree that that kind of repeated output matters. He does not need to “break out” necessarily, he just needs to stay healthy. While it hasn’t been a problem for the last few years with Philly, let’s not forget he’s the oldest of the group on our list of sluggers, and anything can happen to an aging body, so keep that in mind.

At +800, you are getting one of the few sluggers in baseball who has already shown he can clear 55 in today’s run environment.

Cal Raleigh — Can 60 Happen Twice?

• Odds: +900

Cal Raleigh at +900 is by far the most fascinating name on this board, considering he became a household name last year. He hit 60 HRs in 2025, and that’s from a catcher. On top of that, he won the HR Derby.

He slashed .247 with 125 RBI across 159 games and finished 2nd in AL MVP voting behind Judge. That tells you how real the season was, and you can bet that all eyes will be on him again this year.

The Mariners did not wait around to see how this unfolds as they extended him on a 6-year, $105 million deal. He is locked in as the face of that lineup.

The hard question we all have is simple — what does any sort of regression look like? Surely 60+ HRs is not sustainable, as only 2 players have ever had 60+ HRs in back-to-back seasons, and that was McGwire and Sosa in the 90s as they chased history.

If he falls from 60 to 48, that is still in elite company, but it may not win the league. Catchers also carry heavier physical loads, which comes with some time on the bench. Even at 159 games last year and some of them in the DH slot, that is a lot of wear.

But here is the counter.

His power was clearly not fluky, and it showed with each and every swing of the bat. The ball left his lumber with authority, and he plays in a lineup that lets him swing freely. He has shown the stamina to handle a near-full season.

At +900, you are betting that 60 dingers was not a one-year spike; instead, you are betting that 50+ is now realistic and he can keep it up.

Nick Kurtz — The Sophomore With League-Leading Power

• Odds: +1000

Nick Kurtz at +1000 is the upside play we’re willing to bet you didn’t expect to see on this list.

As a rookie in 2025, he hit 36 HRs with a .290 AVG and a 1.002 OPS. He won AL Rookie of the Year unanimously, and he had a 4-homer game against Houston. That is the kind of moment that puts the league on notice.

The biggest takeaway here is that he is 22 years old and undoubtedly pitchers will adjust in 2026. They will attack him differently because that is the normal sophomore test.

But his rookie profile tells us that he can adjust back. He hits the ball hard, and he uses the whole field as well. He does not look overmatched even against veteran aces.

36 dingers as a rookie often turns into 42 or 45 as the player settles into their role in the clubhouse. If that jump happens, and if he gets full-season volume, suddenly you are looking at a real contender.

The Athletics will surely build around him, and he will hit in the middle of the order every day, and at his age, you can bet he won’t sit much.

At +1000, you are betting on his growth. You are betting on a young hitter with real 50-homer upside if everything clicks.

Proven Monsters vs. Ceiling Plays

Judge and Ohtani are the proven 50+ bats, and they’ll make the list year after year. If healthy, they are the safest paths to the top of the leaderboard.

Schwarber sits right behind them as the volume king, and while he may not win MVP, he can absolutely lead the league in HRs if he gets a good stretch in.

Raleigh and Kurtz are the ceiling bets as one just hit 60 and the other looks like the next franchise slugger.

HR leader futures bets are about 3 things — health, plate appearances, and power consistency. All 5 hitters check those boxes in different ways.

If you want to play it safe, then lean toward Judge or Ohtani, and if you want value with real 50-homer history, Schwarber stands out. But if you’re looking for a bigger payout and are willing to embrace variance, Raleigh and Kurtz are the swings.

Spring is here, and the bats are waking up. Get your bets in before the lines start to shift.