#3 Texas A&M vs #16 Texas Prediction — A Rivalry Reignited With Everything on the Line

One of college football’s nastiest rivalries returns tonight, and it’s packed with tons more drama than it’s seen in years. Texas A&M, undefeated at 11-0, heads to Austin for the first time since 2010. They’re chasing an SEC title game berth and a CFP spot, which looks like it’s nearly locked. Texas, sitting at 8-3, can’t make the playoffs themselves just by winning, but they’d love nothing more than to ruin it for the Aggies.

The stakes in this Black Friday showdown are sky-high, and so is the tension.

Game Details, Odds, and What’s at Stake

Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM ET at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas A&M opened as a slight 2.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 51.5. The moneyline favors the Aggies at -145, while Texas is +125 to win outright.

Texas A&M comes into this one on an absolute tear as they’ve won their last 5 games by a combined margin of 137 points. The Aggies are 3rd in the CFP rankings and are one win away from reaching the SEC title game for the first time in school history. On the flip side, Texas started the season ranked No. 1 in the country and looked like a playoff lock from the beginning, but 3 losses later, they’re now playing spoiler to the rest of the field. Still, knocking off A&M and ending their perfect season would give the Longhorns a huge dose of satisfaction, especially after their midfield celebration in College Station last season.

There are definitely some implications with this game, but the best part is the rivalry between these programs.

Breaking Down the Matchup — Strength vs Strength, Weakness vs Weakness

Offensively, Texas A&M has been rolling all year. They’re putting up 38+ PPG, ranking 21st nationally. Sophomore QB Marcel Reed has thrown for 2,752 yards with 25 TDs and 8 picks. He’s been efficient and dangerous, especially in big spots — just 2 weeks ago, he led the Aggies back from a 30-3 hole against South Carolina. With Reuben Owens II likely back in the backfield after sitting last week, Texas A&M brings one of the most balanced attacks into this rivalry. Owens leads the team with 570 rushing yards and 5 scores, and while top back Le’Veon Moss is still sidelined with his bummed ankle, the run game hasn’t missed a beat.

Texas A&M’s passing offense should have a major edge here. The Texas secondary has allowed nearly 243 YPG through the air, which ranks a miserable 230th in the country. That’s a red flag when facing KC Concepcion, who leads A&M with 829 receiving yards and 9 TDs. If Texas can’t tighten up its secondary even just a bit, Reed and Concepcion could have a field day and run up the score on the Longhorns.

Texas, meanwhile, has its own star QB in Arch Manning, who’s coming off a monster performance against Arkansas, where he accounted for 6 total touchdowns. This is what Texas fans have been waiting for this entire time. Manning has passed for 2,763 yards and 23 touchdowns this season, and while his early-season struggles hurt Texas in key moments, he’s clearly found his stride late in the year, and that will definitely help them in a showdown like tonight’s.

But the big problem for the Longhorns is on the ground. Last season, they beat A&M behind Quintrevion Wisner’s 186 rushing yards. That’s surely not happening again. Wisner has just 442 yards all season, and Texas ranks near the bottom of the SEC in rushing offense. One-dimensional teams don’t do well against Texas A&M’s defense, and it’s easy to see why. The Aggies allow just 183 passing YPG — good for 12th best in the country — and their front 7 will likely make Texas abandon the run early and go to the air.

Then there’s Cashius Howell, the SEC’s sack leader with 11.5. He’s going to be a constant headache for Manning behind a Texas line that’s struggled to keep pressure off the sophomore quarterback at times. The Aggies aren’t just better defensively; they’re deeper, faster, and more disruptive up front as well. That spells some serious trouble for a Longhorn team that needs time in the pocket to move the ball.

The one thing Texas does have going for it is the ability to make plays on defense. Colin Simmons has 11 sacks of his own, and the Longhorns have picked off 11 passes this season. If they can get Reed off his usual script and force a few mistakes, they’ve got a shot to swing momentum in their favor. Of course, that’s easier said than done against an Aggie team that controls the clock and rarely gives opponents short fields. Texas A&M ranks 30th nationally in time of possession and converts over 41% on 3rd down.

Special teams could make a difference, too. Both KC Concepcion for A&M and Ryan Niblett for Texas are dangerous in the return game. Each has taken 2 punts to the house this year. One big return could flip the field or tilt momentum fast.

Momentum also leans toward Aggie as Texas A&M hasn’t lost a game all season and looks stronger each and every week. They’ve posted wins of 48-0, 31-30, 38-17, 49-25, and 45-42 in their last 5, and they’re proving they’re one of the most dominant teams in the nation. These aren’t pushover teams, instead, they’re ranked powerhouses like LSU and Mizzou. Even in tight games, they’ve found ways to win. Texas needed OT to get past Kentucky and Mississippi State and couldn’t hang with Georgia, losing by 25.

Prediction and Best Bet

This is the kind of game that tends to bring out the best in both teams. Emotions will undoubtedly be high, but it’s hard to overlook the clear gaps in execution, balance, and momentum. Texas A&M has a more complete offense, a more consistent defense, and they’re clearly better on 3rd downs, in the red zone, and in time of possession. They’re playing with confidence and with everything to lose.

Texas undeniably has some serious talent and is capable of making it a game if Manning gets hot. But the lack of a run game and a vulnerable pass defense are 2 strikes you can’t have against an undefeated team like the Aggies, and that makes us hesitant to bet on the Longhorns.

We think Texas A&M should take control early, and once the ground game starts working, they’ll bleed the clock and take the crowd out of it. This time, it’s the Aggies who get the last laugh. And they do it in front of 100,000+ Texas fans.

• Prediction: Texas A&M 34, Texas 24
• Best Bet: Texas A&M -2.5

There’s too much riding on this for Texas A&M to stumble, and you can bet they’re prepared for whatever Texas throws at them. They’ve been tested and passed every challenge. We expect them to cover this number with some breathing room. This team is built for a run to Atlanta — and they won’t let Texas stop them now.